Eckes-Granini Group GmbH can look back on a challenging business year in 2020, which was strongly influenced by the global COVID-19 pandemic. With an EBIT of 71 million EUR and an EBIT margin of 8.7 %, business results fell short of expectations in the past year, but the international corporate group for non-alcoholic fruit beverages nevertheless draws a satisfactory conclusion. Compared to the previous year, the company managed to almost maintain its EBIT margin, which was 8.9 % in 2019. Total turnover fell from EUR 921 million in the 2019 financial year to 873 million EUR in 2020 (-5.2 %), while sales volumes also declined in 2020, falling by 10 million litres to 843 million litres.
“The past business year was without a question a challenge for all of us. However, together we have managed to respond to this extraordinary situation with great flexibility and willingness to perform. We have maintained our supply chain and production throughout the year and expanded our market leadership in Europe. The COVID-19 pandemic will continue to affect us in 2021. This year, we will set the strategic internal course for sustainable growth “after Corona”,” says Tim Berger, CEO of the Eckes-Granini Group.
After an initially promising start to the first quarter of 2020, the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic led to a massive setback in the out-of-home business from March onwards. In almost all European countries, restaurants and hotels were completely closed for months due to the Corona restrictions. Accordingly, Eckes-Granini suffered losses of up to 50 % in the out-of-home business in some markets.
Strong food retail partially offsets losses in the out-of-home business
The demand for fruit juices and fruit beverages developed positively in 2020. In contrast to previous years, which saw a declining trend, the FJND (Fruit Juice Nectar Drinks) market developed positively in 2020, both in terms of value (+2.2 %) and volume (+1.5 %). In particular the chilled-juice and ambient-juice segments were able to grow. With a growth of 3.9 %, Eckes-Granini grew almost twice as fast as the market in terms of value and was thus the growth driver in the FJND category again last year. In the food retail segment, the Eckes-Granini Group increased sales by 3 %, driven in particular by higher demand as a result of the ongoing Corona pandemic. Overall, the good results in food retail helped to compensate, at least in part, for the drastic decline in the out-of-home business.
Ongoing health awareness among consumers offers growth potential
The rising demand for fruit juices is also attributable to the continuing strong health trend among consumers. This is reflected in the positive development of the
Eckes-Granini Benefit Ranges, which have won over consumers with their additional health benefits. In Germany, Hungary, Austria and Lithuania, for example, the hohes C PLUS range grew by a total of 10 %, thus outpacing the overall growth of Eckes-Granini brands (+5.9 %) in these markets. The juices in the God Morgon Benefit range also benefited from this trend, with growth of 5 %, as did the shots of the Eckes-Granini brands Rynkeby, Brämhults and Marli.
In solidarity through the pandemic
The difficult situation in the out-of-home market was not the only challenge Eckes- Granini was facing in the pandemic year 2020. Ensuring smooth processes along the supply chain, in production and in operations also demanded a great deal from employees in terms of flexibility and commitment. Nevertheless, in the midst of the global crisis, it was important for the Group not to lose sight of its long-standing business partners and the situation in the communities in which Eckes-Granini operates. In an effort to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, Eckes-Granini supported restaurant owners Germany, Austria and France, among other countries, with donations. Under the umbrella of the Group-wide “Corona Relief Fund”, all eleven national subsidiaries of the Eckes-Granini Group also donated some 500,000 litres of fruit juice to people in systemically important professions and to charitable institutions from April to September 2020. And in the pandemic year, the international charity cycling initiative Team Rynkeby also collected 8.7 million EUR for seriously ill children despite many restrictions with regional country tours. Eckes-Granini has been a main sponsor and partner of the charity cycling race since 2016.
Sustainable management was also a priority in 2020
In the past business year, Eckes-Granini achieved a number of strategic milestones on its way to becoming one of the world’s most sustainable fruit juice producers by establishing an in-house sustainability team. The orange juices of Brazil, granini and God Morgon have carried the Group’s own “Sustainably Grown” label since last year and are produced from 100 % sustainably grown oranges. Through its cooperation with ClimatePartner, Eckes-Granini has also come closer to its goal of successively reducing all greenhouse gas emissions caused directly or indirectly by its own business activities and offsetting them through a compensation project in Portel, Brazil.
Setting the course for future growth
“We have set ourselves a lot of goals for 2025. At the top are innovations strictly oriented to the wishes, expectations and needs of consumers. The current beverage market offers Eckes-Granini numerous growth opportunities, which we will explore. Our goal is to significantly increase our sales revenues and market share in Europe and beyond by 2025″, says Tim Berger, CEO of the Eckes-Granini Group. To this end, the Eckes-Granini Group will continue to develop and expand its strategic brands and existing channels in a targeted manner over the next five years and invest substantially in dynamic growth categories. There will be a clear focus on channels that promise profitable growth, especially e-commerce.”
About the Eckes-Granini Group: Eckes-Granini is the leading supplier of fruit juices and fruit beverages in Europe. For the independent family-owned company headquartered in Nieder-Olm, Germany (Rhineland-Palatinate), the focus is on committed and competent employees, strong brands in the areas of juices, fruit beverages and smoothies, and a long-term strategic orientation with sustainable value creation. Today, Eckes-Granini operates mainly in Europe with its own national companies and strategic partners and generates annual sales of 873 million euros with a total of 1708 employees. The company’s foundation is formed by the internationally renowned premium brands granini and Pago together with strong national and regional brands for juices and fruit beverages. Consumers in 80 countries worldwide and especially in Europe know and appreciate our fruit juices and the variety of fruit beverages.
Since the financial and economic crisis, there has only ever been an upwards trend for food processing and packaging machinery. In 2020, the 10-year growth phase in tis mechanical engineering sector came to a temporary end with a decrease of 9 percent to 13.9 billion euros.
“The drop in production doesn’t come as a surprise, as 2019 was an exceptionally strong year for our industry. Even without the Corona pandemic, we would have probably only just exceeded this high level,” explains Richard Clemens, Managing Director of the VDMA Food Processing and Packaging Machinery Association.
In the packaging machinery sector, production dropped by a total of 8 percent to 6.7 billion euros. In food processing machinery, the change rates varied in the individual subsectors. Production of meat processing machinery slightly increased to over 1.2 billion euros. The demand also remained stable for bakery machinery. Both subsectors reported a good domestic business, which overcompensated the decrease in exports.
Production of confectionery machinery dropped by 18 percent below the very high level of the previous year. There was also a double-digit drop in the production of beverage machinery. “These two sectors are very active in non-European countries and are among those suffering from the Corona pandemic. In addition, the customers of these industries include many multinationals that have simply frozen their investment projects,” says Clemens, explaining the different developments.
Corona- pandemic weakens export business
Exports of food processing and packaging machinery dropped by a total of 8 percent to 8.5 billion euros in 2020. The decline varied greatly from one sub-sector to another. Manufacturers of packaging machinery, meat processing machinery and bakery machinery recorded downturns of 5 to 6 percent. Confectionery machinery was down by 24 percent, and brewery machinery saw a 38 percent drop in exports. However, the reference values of the previous year were also exceptionally high in these two sectors. The severe impact on the brewery machinery sector is also directly related to the limited or complete standstill of business activity in the hotel and catering industry as a result of the Corona crisis.
From a regional point of view, foreign shipments of food processing and packaging machinery decreased in almost all economic regions in 2020, except of North America. In particular, deliveries from Germany to the USA increased by 8 percent to over 1.2 billion euros. Positive impetus also came from important individual markets, such as Russia, Mexico and China.
However, deliveries to the EU-27 as the most important sales region dropped by 15 percent. Exports to Asia also decreased by a significant double-digit percentage.
According to current estimations, a return to the 2019 level is not very likely for 2021. “We do expect production to grow this year, but it is unlikely to be in double digits,” says Clemens. The general outlook for the industry is positive, according to the trade association’s managing director, as the sector’s companies are well positioned internationally and continue to benefit from a rising global demand for processed and packaged food, beverages, cosmetics and pharmaceuticals.
The VDMA represents around 3,300 German and European mechanical and plant engineering companies. The industry stands for innovation, export orientation, small and medium-sized enterprises and employs around four million people in Europe, more than one million of them in Germany only.
Symrise AG reliably continued its profitable growth course in 2020 despite the challenging environment. The Group increased its sales by 3.3 % to € 3,520 million taking into account portfolio and currency translation effects. In organic terms, sales went up by 2.7 %. The Group thus significantly outperformed market growth, which is estimated at 1.0 % for 2020. At the same time, Symrise stayed behind its defined sales target, as the business development in the month of December was impacted by a criminal cyber-attack. Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) rose by 5.8 % to € 742 million in 2020. Profitability reached an outstanding level with an EBITDA margin of 21.1 % and was within the expected margin range. Against the backdrop of the good performance, the Executive Board and the Supervisory Board propose a dividend increase to € 0.97 for the fiscal year 2020 to the annual general meeting.
Symrise AG announces its sales figures for the financial year 2020 due to a special event end of last year. The Company achieved organic sales growth of 2.7 % which is slightly below the targeted range of 3 to 4 %. This is due to a cybersecurity attack in mid-December 2020, which temporarily caused significant disruptions to business operations. This one-time effect is reflected in the sales figures of the fourth quarter with an organic growth of 0.7 %. Meanwhile production processes have been restored globally. With respect to the profitability target, Symrise expects an EBITDA margin at the lower end of the guidance range of 21 to 22 %.
“Symrise maintained a very solid performance in a market environment impacted by the coronavirus pandemic. We were well on track until mid-December 2020 when we became the target of a criminal cybersecurity attack with blackmailing intent. It was out of question for us to give in. As a consequence, our business operations were at times severely restricted and we were therefore not able to fully achieve our growth targets. However, we follow a clear ethical compass and reject any form of criminal fraud or extortion. Although there were some delays in production and logistics, customers and business partners encouraged us in our position and we expressly thank them for that. Our business operations are meanwhile largely back to normal, and we are proceeding at high speed to clear the backlog of orders,” said Dr Heinz-Jürgen Bertram, CEO of Symrise AG.
Despite the heterogeneous market environment shaped by the global coronavirus pandemic, Symrise achieved organic sales growth of 2.7 % in 2020. Growth was impacted by the slower sales development in the month of December, which resulted from the cybersecurity attack. The fourth quarter recorded organic sales growth of 0.7 %. Excluding this one-time effect and based on a good sales performance in October and November as well as a robust order intake, Symrise would have achieved its original targets. Taking negative currency translation effects of € 152 million (- 4.5 %) into account, group sales in reporting currency amounted to € 3.521 billion (2019: € 3.408 billion). This represents an increase of 3.3 %.
Symrise remains confident that it will achieve an EBITDA margin at the lower end of the guidance range of 21 to 22 % for full year 2020.
The Company aims to increase its annual sales to € 5.5 to 6.0 billion by 2025. Symrise wants to achieve this with annual organic growth of 5 to 7 % (CAGR) as well as additional targeted acquisitions. In the medium term, profitability should remain within a target corridor of 20 to 23 %.
Effects of the cybersecurity attack largely remedied
The cybersecurity attack in December represented a criminal attack by unknown perpetrators with blackmailing intent. Symrise had immediately shielded its IT infrastructure and shut down essential IT systems after it had become aware of a cybersecurity attack in mid-December. In addition, the Company took comprehensive internal measures to counteract the attack and analyse the impact. Furthermore, Symrise immediately involved the relevant authorities and called in external forensic cyber experts.
Freshfel Europe published its 2020 Consumption Monitor, the Association’s analysis for fresh fruit and vegetables production, trade and consumption trends in the EU-28. This latest and highly anticipated edition of Freshfel Europe’s Consumption Monitor shows that in 2018 daily fresh fruit and vegetable consumption per capita has increased by 4 % from 2017 levels to 363.76 g per capita per day. While still below the WHO recommended minimum daily consumption of 400 g, this represents a 5.1 % increase compared to the previous five years (2013-2017) and halts previous consumption stagnation.
Freshfel Europe released its much-anticipated 2020 Consumption Monitor. Analysing fresh fruit and vegetable production, trade and consumption trends for the EU-28, Freshfel Europe’s 2020 Consumption Monitor examines the latest sector data from 2018. While aggregate consumption remained below the WHO recommended minimum daily consumption of 400 g, fresh produce consumption in the EU showed a strong positive increase of 4 % compared to 2017 levels. Representing a 5.1 % increase compared to the previous five years (2013-2017), this significant improvement can be attributed to a 9.5 % rise in fresh fruit consumption to 211.82 g per capita per day, which also compensated for a slight overall decrease in vegetable consumption to 151.94 g per capita per day.
This indication of a strong positive increase in EU consumption has coincided with increased sector efforts to raise awareness of the importance of fresh produce consumption over the last few years. Freshfel Europe General Delegate Philippe Binard commented on the publication emphasizing, “The findings of Freshfel Europe’s 2020 Consumption Monitor are highly encouraging and clearly illustrate that the sector’s heightened efforts to boost consumption above the WHO recommended minimum of 400 g per capita per day are being paid off. While we will continue to observe the stability of this recovery, we need to investigate this new discrepancy between fruit and vegetable consumption”. Mr Binard encouraged the sector to continue its efforts adding, “The fresh fruit and vegetable sector must capitalize on 2021 being the UN International Year of Fruits and Vegetables. Continued reinforcement of the important role of fresh produce in a balanced healthy and sustainable diet is essential to maintain and boost this latest positive consumption trend”. Freshfel Europe is active in consumption promotion activities at EU-level. Freshfel Europe’s ‘Follow me to be healthy with Europe’ EU promotion campaign is now in its third year, and alongside its longstanding online #FruitVeg4You campaign this year Freshfel Europe is conducting a specific campaign, #SpeakUp4FruitVeg, to encourage support for the sector by EU policy-makers and boost consumption to celebrate the International Year of Fruits and Vegetables 2021.
The 143-page Freshfel Europe 2020 Consumption Monitor consists of three parts:
total gross supply of fruit and vegetables in the EU-28, including trends in production, exports and imports of fruit and vegetables (2013-2018),
a comparative review of consumption trends across the EU-28 (2013-2018), and
a review of the total net supply and trends exports and imports of fruit and vegetables in the EU-28 (2013-2018).
Freshfel Europe members receive the full report free of charge. The 2020 Consumption Monitor is also available for purchase for non-members at a rate of 1000 EUR. All information about the Freshfel Europe Consumption Monitor is available via the Freshfel website (www.freshfel.org).
Updated orange1 crop forecast totals 269.36 million boxes
The 2020-2021 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on December 10, 2020 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 –, is 269.36 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. The first forecast update, published in September, already showed a drop as compared to the initial projection, but the expected production was significantly hindered by late rainfall in the spring and intense heat. In this second forecast update, a decrease of 18.40 million boxes represents a drop of 6.39 % in relation to the initial forecast. Should this new projection hold true until harvest ends, it will result in the largest crop loss for the citrus belt since the beginning of the historical series in 1988-1989 and a downturn of 30.36 % in comparison to the previous crop season. Approximately 19.35 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in West Minas Gerais.
A poor outlook for rainfall was expected in 2020 due to the possibility of the climate event La Niña forming, which was officially confirmed in September. However, other phenomena, such as the so-called Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, simultaneously contributed to less rainfall and increased temperatures that reached unprecedented levels in several regions of the citrus belt. Consequently, the effects on groves resulting from adverse weather conditions this year were much worse as compared to those observed during the last La Niña, between November 2017 and April 2018. …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
European Cider Trends 2020 is a collaboration between Global Data and the European Cider and FruitWine Association (AICV) in producing a guide that demonstrates the current key markets for cider (which includes perry, fruit flavoured cider and in some countries fruit wine).
Although considerably smaller than the wine, beer, or spirits industries, it is nevertheless a fact that in recent years in some EU countries cider and fruit wines have enjoyed one of the fastest growth rates of all alcoholic beverages, underlining the continuous popularity of fermented fruit drinks down the ages.
The purpose of the document is to increase the awareness of cider to stakeholders (principally lawmakers and those involved with policy formulation) who may not be familiar with cider and all its varieties. …
The 2020 edition of the European Cider Trends brochure is now available for download: www.aicv.org
Let’s start with some good news: BrauBeviale will take place this year! The event concept has been modified due to the current circumstances. In consultation with the relevant authorities, safety and hygiene concepts were developed to ensure a safe and effective trade fair experience for all participants. This year, the international capital goods fair for the beverage industry will therefore take place at Exhibition Centre Nuremberg from 10 to 12 November as a “BrauBeviale Special Edition”. This decision was taken in close consultation with our exhibitors, visitors and partners and therefore specifically meets their requests for the organisation of a physical platform before the end of the year to facilitate dialogue and foster business.
“The decision to hold BrauBeviale this year was not just down to us as the organiser but was taken in close consultation with our exhibitors, visitors and partners,” explains Andrea Kalrait, Executive Director BrauBeviale at NürnbergMesse. “The message that we kept getting in our discussions was that our customers still wanted to have their annual gathering in 2020, all the more so as it was probably the only opportunity for such a meeting this year, not just at national and European level but internationally. So I am really looking forward to welcoming as many visitors as possible in person to our event in Nuremberg!”
The key theme of the current three-year BrauBeviale cycle is the future viability of the beverage industry. This year in particular, which has also forced a lot of companies in the beverage sector to face unprecedented and difficult challenges, the future viability of the industry is more important than ever. The BrauBeviale Special Edition is therefore very much about showing solidarity. As a partner to the entire beverage sector, this year’s event will send out a message and provide an attractive, successful and at the same time safe platform to allow industry stakeholders to share information, network and join forces to emerge from this difficult situation in a stronger position.
BrauBeviale Special Edition – tailored hygiene concept
Andrea Kalrait explains the principle behind the Special Edition: “Naturally, protecting our customers is always a top priority for us, so together with the relevant authorities we developed a safety and hygiene concept tailored to BrauBeviale, to ensure the greatest possible degree of safety for all trade fair participants.” The main protection objectives and the cornerstones of all measures implemented are to make it possible to observe current social distancing rules and facilitate contact tracing and good hand hygiene. The supporting programme was also adapted to meet these requirements: The Craft Drinks Area, BrauBeviale Forum and brau@home will make the necessary adjustments to the way they communicate and provide information so as to ensure the safety of the participants.
“Except for stand parties, things can happen in the usual way but subject to the prescribed conditions that we are all familiar with meanwhile from our daily routines,” says Andrea Kalrait, summing up the concept for the BrauBeviale Special Edition. “There will be a one-way system to direct visitor flows through the halls. Wherever it is not possible to observe social distancing, masks must be worn, and the exhibition stands have to comply with the necessary safety and hygiene standards. In addition, the contact details of all exhibitors and visitors will be collected to ensure the necessary traceability. Because we cannot use the same hall configuration as last year, I encourage all visitors to do a bit more preparation for their trade fair visit this time round.” An obligatory part of this preparation will be to register in advance online. To make sure that the admissible number of visitors per day is not exceeded, only day tickets will be available this year. So each visitor has to decide on a specific day and then register for it. The tickets are available on mobile devices and allow contactless access to the exhibition grounds.
There is positive news from Beviale Family in China about the successful restart of the trade fair business. This is not just pointing the way forward for the exhibition industry worldwide, but also for Nuremberg as a trade fair venue and consequently, for BrauBeviale. CRAFT BEER CHINA took place in Shanghai from 1 to 3 July 2020 and was a professional event that did an excellent job in implementing the necessary distancing and hygiene rules.
Online option: the regular industry gathering on the internet
Considering the current travel restrictions, BrauBeviale has also undertaken to enable trade visitors and companies to participate in the BrauBeviale Special Edition even if they cannot come to Nuremberg in person. Alongside work on implementing the modified event concept at the exhibition centre, preparations are also in full swing for the digital dialogue platform “myBeviale.com” (www.mybeviale.com). It will dovetail the analogue and digital worlds and will also be available to the BrauBeviale community the whole year round after the trade fair is over. For the event the BrauBeviale Forum programme, among other things, will also be put online. Thanks to this online option, trade fair participants will have the opportunity to watch and even interact with interesting presentations live from their homes. In addition, it will be possible to live-stream contributions by high-calibre speakers who are not able to attend the event in person. “So I urge all of you to make a firm note of the dates 10 to 12 November 2020 in your calendar and take your place at the industry’s regular gathering! Whether in person at the Nuremberg venue or in virtual space from your PC at home, we have a wide-ranging programme to offer you!” says Andrea Kalrait in an appeal to all industry players.
Cibus has been postponed to next year from 4 to 7 May 2021 in Parma – Meanwhile Fiere di Parma and Federalimentare have announced an international Forum on 2-3 September 2020 in Parma addressing the restart of the agri-food sector – The innovative online platform “My Business Cibus” designed for international operators to facilitate the matching between trade operators and the Authentic Italian Food is ready to go
The 20th edition of Cibus, the International Food Exhibition, has been rescheduled for next year, from 4 to 7 May 2021. The decision, taken by Fiere di Parma and Federalimentare, has been mutually agreed with ITA – Italian Trade Agency and the businesses of the Italian agri-food supply chain. An international forum entitled “CIBUS FORUM – FOOD&BEVERAGE SECTOR AND COVID: FROM TRANSITION TO TRANSFORMATION” will be held in Parma in September, later this year. While in the next few days, an innovative digital Sourcing and Business Matching platform, called “My Business Cibus” will be launched.
Regarding Cibus, initially rescheduled for September 2020, we recognized the absence of the necessary conditions able to guarantee the qualitative and quantitative outcome of the incoming program, especially in terms of international trade operators, and as a consequence to meet the expectations of our exhibitors, stakeholders, and institutional partners. Considering the role of Cibus as the reference event for the promotion of the “Authentic Italian Food&Beverage” in the eyes of the international community of agri-food players, a downsized edition of the 20th International Food Exhibition does not seem an acceptable solution.
“CIBUS FORUM – FOOD&BEVERAGE SECTOR AND COVID: FROM TRANSITION TO TRANSFORMATION” will take place in Parma from 2 to 3 September 2020. To what extent have consumer behaviors changed since the COVID-19 emergency? How will the labor market be reorganized? What actions will need to be put in place to recover production and export of the agri-food sector? Industry stakeholders and national and international experts will meet for a collaborative consultation on future scenarios.The Forum will be held at the Fiere di Parma exhibition centre, in a pavilion that in light of Covid-19 has been restructured specifically to host a limited number of guests and key speakers in a safe way and in compliance with the most advanced safety & security standards. Cibus Forum will also be streamed live.
While waiting for the next edition of Cibus, Fiere di Parma together with Federalimentare, have set up an innovative online platform, “My Business Cibus”, which will allow commercial operators to carry out thorough searches and select all Cibus exhibitors’ products, including the latest innovations. All the products that the companies publish on their websites have been indexed and grouped. This will give national and international buyers the possibility of choosing, in an easy and quick way, from amongst almost 200,000 products offered by 3,000 companies. The online tool will be operational from 12 May 2020 (www.mybusiness.cibus.it).
Innova Market Insights’ latest report on global flavour trends in the food and beverage industry highlights how it is no longer just about tantalizing the taste buds with a range of adventurous, innovative and reimagined flavours, but increasingly about how flavour use can complement and develop the storytelling behind products and brands. In fact, 56 % of consumers in a global survey agreed that stories around a brand influenced their purchasing decisions.
Consumers are increasingly captivated by the stories behind products and brands, and flavours have a key role to play in this, making Storytelling the first of Innova Market Insights’ Top Ten Flavor Trends for 2020. Other important trends include the rise in plant-based alternatives, wellness associations, macronutrient influences and flavours supporting textural developments.
Innova Market Insights Top Five Flavour Trends for 2020 are:
Increased consumer interest in the origin of their food and beverage products is resulting in ingredient provenance proving its worth as a key element of brand storytelling. Over 40 % of global consumers wanted to know the story around a brand because they wanted to learn where the ingredients were from, according to an Innova Market Insights survey. Storytelling strategies include a focus on authentic tastes, flavours and recipes, as well as uniqueness through ingredient provenance and artisan/small batch processing.
2. The Power of Plants
The use of plant ingredients and plant-based recipes is soaring across a range of food and drinks categories, with an Innova Consumer Survey finding that 3 in 5 global consumers are increasingly incorporating plant ingredients into their diets. Plant ingredients can provide a healthy and colourful touch, with the use of a multitude of vegetable flavours for a healthy halo, including on-trend purple potato as part of the purple vegetables trend.
3. Wellness Flavours
Pursuit of healthier lifestyles is not only driving the plant-based trend, but also the demand for flavours targeting more general wellness, both mental and physical. Botanical flavours are increasingly popular for relaxation, stress reduction and sleep enhancement, featuring ingredients such as lavender, CBD/cannabis and turmeric. Floral flavoured drinks increasingly have mood associations, being seen as potentially relaxing or energizing.
4. Macronutrient Challenge
Consumer perceptions of macronutrients in relation to health are also evolving. There is a need to maintain taste profiles while reducing sugar, calorie and/or fat content, with sugar seen as a particular priority. Active ingredients are also impacting product flavours, with high protein options, such as cheese, seeds and nuts, as well as the association of ‘source of vitamins’ claims with fruity flavours.
5. Tapping into Texture
Consumers are increasingly recognizing the influence of texture on eating and drinking experiences, with 7 out of 10 global consumers agreeing that texture makes food and beverages a more interesting experience. Meanwhile, 6 out of 10 said that texture claims influenced their purchasing decisions. As part of this, there is growing interest in flavours that create a richer texture experience, such as honeycomb and toffee, while the industry continues to experiment with nuts in a wide variety of applications, including crunchy flavors and smooth bases.
The other top trends identified by Innova Market Insights are:
6. Hello Hybrids
7. All Time Favorites
8. Triggering the Taste Buds
9. Brown Flavours
10. Flavours Unlimited
Over the years, Prognosfruit has become the leading annual meeting point for the European apple and pear sector. Each year the conference gathers around 300 leaders from the apple and pear sector in a different European country in early August. Prognosfruit is an opportunity not to be missed to debate the latest sector developments and be informed on the annual apple and pear crop forecast.
For the first time since the initiation of Prognosfruit in 1976, the organizers of the 2020 edition have had to take the difficult decision to regretfully cancel this year’s conference. Prognosfruit was scheduled to take place later this year in Belgrade (Serbia) from 5-7 August 2020.
The global COVID-19 pandemic has prevented Prognosfruit from being organized this year under normal conditions. So far, there is no indication when the current travel restrictions within the European Union and on the external borders of the European Union will be lifted. Furthermore, at the time of the conference some quarantine rules might still be in place as well as other restrictions on transport and social distancing.
It has been agreed with Serbia Does Apples, the local organizer of conference planned conference in 2020 in Belgrade, that Prognosfruit 2021 will take place in Serbia.
In the meantime and regarding the 2020 forecast, WAPA will release the apple and pear forecast as usual. The modalities of disclosing the 2020 forecast will be announced in July.
The Symrise Group remains on track for growth in the fiscal year 2020. In the first quarter, sales were up by 8.0 % to € 917.1 million (Q1 2019: € 848.8 million). All segments contributed to this positive development and posted gains despite the challenging global economic conditions under Covid-19. In organic terms, sales were up 2.3 % after strong comparative figures in the prior-year quarter.
“The Covid-19 pandemic is proving a tough test for the global economy. Symrise has put measures in place at all of its locations to provide employees and partners with optimal protection against the virus. We continue to be fully operational and are making every effort to supply our customers with the reliability they are used to. In this context, our employees’ flexibility and enormous commitment play a decisive role,” said Dr Heinz-Jürgen Bertram, CEO of Symrise AG. “This crisis again underscores the resilience and balance of our business model. With our broad range of product solutions for foods and beverages, personal care and hygiene, we serve especially in these times the needs of everyday life. In addition, we are demonstrating social responsibility by using our technological skills and resources to produce disinfectants by the ton and deliver them free of charge to municipalities for use in public institutions.”
Flavor grows with savory products and beverage applications
In the Flavor segment, which supplies flavor ingredients for foods and beverages, sales increased by 2.2 % to € 322.6 million (Q1 2019: € 315.6 million). Adjusted for exchange rate effects and after a strong prior-year quarter, organic growth in the segment amounted to 1.6 %.
In EAME, the highest growth rates were recorded in applications for beverages and savory products, especially in the national markets in Germany, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and South Africa. Sales in applications for sweets were slightly below the prior-year quarter.
In the Asia/Pacific region, sales growth in the beverages application area was in the high single-digit percentage range and reached even double-digit growth rates in savory applications. The national markets of Singapore, Indonesia, Vietnam and Bangladesh developed particularly pleasing. By contrast, the currently weaker demand in China had a negative impact on the overall positive regional development.
In North America, the application areas for beverages and sweet products were slightly below the strong prior-year level. The savory business achieved solid growth with regional and global customers.
Business in Latin America developed very dynamically and achieved high single-digit percentage growth for sweet products. At the same time, sales for beverage and savory products grew in the double-digit percentage range. Demand for beverage application products was particularly strong in the national markets of Brazil and Uruguay.
Confident for the current fiscal year
Symrise continues to be fully operational worldwide and has sustained supply capability. Due to its global presence, its expanded portfolio and broad customer base, the Group considers itself to be robust and reliably positioned even in this demanding market environment. Symrise expects that the Covid-19 crisis will temporarily change consumer behavior in parts and lead to a shift in the portfolio. A large number of the products that are currently in greater demand address essential daily needs in connection with nutrition, personal care and hygiene.
After a solid start into the year, Symrise remains confident for the current fiscal year. While the development and impact of Covid-19 is difficult to assess at present, the Group continues to expect to grow faster than the relevant market, supported by the very diversified competencies, in the course of the year.
The longer term goals until the end of 2025 remain in effect. Symrise aims to increase its sales to
€ 5.5 – € 6 billion. The Company intends to achieve this increase through annual organic growth of 5–7 % (CAGR) and additional targeted acquisitions.
The organisers of the Juice Summit announced the postponement of the Juice Summit 2020 organised for the 14 & 15 October 2020 in Antwerp, Belgium.
The Juice Summit will come back in 2021 for a special edition. Information will be given in due time, but you can already save the date 6&7 October 2021.
Orange production for the 2019-2020 crop season totals 386.79 million boxes1
The final 2019-2020 orange crop forecast for São Paulo, Triângulo Mineiro and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on April 09, 2020 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is 386.79 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, which represents a decrease of 0.54 % in relation to the first crop forecast carried out in May 2019 of 388.89 million boxes. This crop is 35.3 % larger in comparison to the previous season (2018-2019), when 285.98 million boxes were produced, evidencing the biennial production cycle of orange trees, that is, larger crops alternated with smaller ones. …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal. 2Departament of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal.
The 2019-2020 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 71.0 million boxes. If realized, this will be down 1 percent from last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 30.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 41.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression has been used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular and first late bloom. …
Mintel, the experts in what consumers want and why, has announced two trends impacting the global packaging industry in 2020:
Ahead of the Recycling Curve: Packaging manufacturers and brands must continue to develop and commercialize recyclable package innovations even if the capabilities to recycle them do not yet exist.
In-store Refill: The rapid growth of independent packaging-free stores is driving retailers across the industry to consider how to create simple, branded, and engaging refill opportunities in-store.
Looking ahead, Mintel Global Packaging Director David Luttenberger discusses the major trends influencing the packaging sector worldwide during the coming year.
Ahead of the Recycling Curve
“Despite the world’s wishes, single-use plastic will exist for decades to come. With a fraction of the world’s plastic waste actually being recycled, there is a dire need to explore technologies that are ‘technically’ recyclable now, and for the development of plastic alternatives – not just single-use plastics, but for all types of plastics and packaging. Time is of the essence; these technologies must be developed today, ahead of their ability to be recycled, rather than the other way around. But next-generation technologies are only small pieces of the greater equation that will address and solve the waste and recycling crisis. With all the will in the world, ‘reduce, reuse, recycle’ is not universal; it’s hard to recycle if consumers aren’t first reminded to ‘return’ packaging to the proper recycling bin or store take-back system. The ultimate solution is brands, manufacturers, packaging industry bodies, governments and environmental non-profits working in harmony to better inform consumers, develop more easily recyclable packaging and establish better collection systems and recycling processes.”
“Regardless of the material used, the next iteration of the circular economy is clearly focused on reusability, alongside recyclability. With single-use now a toxic phrase for many consumers, refillable packaging is becoming more and more commonly known and used. While consumers want packaging reduction that comes from reuse, they expect this to be a simple and mess-free transaction. But without packaging to serve as one of the main communication channels from brands to consumers, branding can become challenging. Brands should look to offer memorable experiences through refill in order to create brand engagement, with those bringing some theatre to the refill moment most likely to succeed. And whilst many smaller refill stores use Instagrammable containers (such as attractive heritage glass jars), if refill is to become mainstream, consumers will expect refillable options that are easy to use from start to finish. By meeting this need, brands have an opportunity to ensure that their message is maintained.”
To find out Mintel’s predictions for what consumers in 2020 (and 2030!) will want and why, and what manufacturers and brands must do now to stay ahead of the competition, download the free thought piece here.
Erbslöh Geisenheim GmbH has issued an invitation to the latest International Juice and Fruit Wine Seminar in Rotenburg an der Fulda (Germany) on 26 and 27 March 2020. For the third time the Göbel’s Hotel Rodenberg will provide the perfect setting for specialist presentations on beverage research and process technology in fruit and vegetable processing. More than 120 experts from the fruit juice and cider industries are expected. The Rheingau company is organising the seminar in cooperation with leading processing industry suppliers and renowned applied research institutions. The programme includes a wide range of presentations on topics such as “Processing of particularly difficult apples”, “New research and analysis findings”, “Filtration”, “Fermentation”, and “Sensory aspects when manufacturing purées and citrus products”. The event will end with a moderated tasting of innovative, premium quality fruit wine products.
Like apple. Says esarom, the Austrian producer of flavours and compounds and makes us curious to get to know more about the trendy taste for 2020.
esarom has created an extensive apple portfolio which goes beyond the actual fruit: On the one hand there is the delicate apple blossom, on the other hand the harvested and already processed apple in the form of cider, apple spirit, apple pie or baked apple.
There are flavours where the character of individual apple varieties like Gala, Golden Delicious or Granny Smith is in the foreground, but you can also enquire for profiles like juicy-sweet, crispy-fresh or sour-tangy.
It is astonishing how diverse in taste a fruit can be which has become for us an everyday product.
Originating from real fruit and apple juice of different apple varieties nature identical flavours have been created orientating on those taste profiles. The flavour profile depends on the wishes of the beverage producer and also includes natural flavours which are suitable for organic products.
Considering the current food trends esarom has been right to choose the apple as trendy fruit. The apple being at home in more than 100 countries of the world, the apple has been the cosmopolitan among fruits and at the same time almost everywhere a local fruit – thus the taste of the apple fits perfectly to concepts which focus on local fruits. Every child is familiar with the saying “an apple a day…” and it also reflects the healthy image of the apple. Consistent: products which focus on the trendy topic Health & Wellbeing and taste like apple. The taste of apple has been a timeless taste which has always been there and still is a top taste. Among the world-wide beverage launches of the last two years together with orange and lemon it has been among the top 3 flavours.*
The curious consumer who likes to try out new things – the trend scouts of Innova speak of Adventurous Consumer, top Trend Number One 2019 – would like to be surprised and rewards interesting concepts with a Like which combine familiar and popular aspects and are enriched by unexpected flavour notes.
The apple is a sociable fruit and goes well with many fruits like with the popular botanicals. This results in classical products with a trendy twist which have potential that they are liked by many – consumers and producers alike.
The esarom apple portfolio enables to offer with the fruit apple alone to offer a diversity of seasonal products for an entire year: in spring an energy drink with apple blossom awakens the spirits of life, a water-based apple drink with the taste of the variety Braeburn serves as a thirst quencher in the hot summer months. Autumn is the time of the cider – there are cider notes from sweet to tangy in an alcohol-free soft drink for the Young Urbans. When winter begins Hygge is the motto and baked apple is the taste of the season.
* Source Mintel GNPD
Increased consumer interest in the stories behind their food and beverage products and their notable influence on purchasing decisions has resulted in companies increasingly paying attention to storytelling in branding strategies. “Storytelling: Winning with Words” leads the list of Innova Market Insights’ Top Ten Trends for 2020. The top five trends for 2020 are:
1. Storytelling: Winning with Words
Although ingredient provenance has always been important, consumer interest in discovering the story behind their foods has risen further and increasingly influencing purchasing decisions. Consumers’ attention is piqued by opportunities to learn more about how products are produced, which promotes an understanding of product benefits and helps build all-important trust in the brand.
As a result, manufacturers are increasingly focusing on ingredient provenance platforms in order to highlight the taste and quality of their products, as well as their uniqueness and sustainability efforts. Provenance platforms can communicate a whole range of messages to the consumer, including flavor/taste, processing methods, cultural and traditional backgrounds, as well as the more obvious geographical origin.
2. The Plant-Based Revolution
Plant-based innovation in food and beverages continues to flourish as a result of consumer interest in health, sustainability and ethics, which ties into the broader consumer lifestyle trend towards cleaner living. As the use of the term “plant-based” moves more into the mainstream, the industry and start-up companies in particular, are taking up the challenge to deliver more clean label meat and dairy alternatives with improved nutritional profiles.
3. The Sustain Domain
Consumers increasingly expect companies to invest in sustainability, with Innova Market Insights research indicating that 85 % of, on average, US and UK consumers expected companies to invest in sustainability in 2019, up from 64 % in 2018. In the area of food waste, upcycling is the new recycling, as companies strive to follow a zero-waste approach by creating value from by-products. Meanwhile in packaging, the focus is on using less of it, as well as developing sustainable alternatives.
4. The Right Bite
Stress and anxiety are key concerns in modern life as consumers manage careers, families and social lives while striving to maintain healthy lifestyles, both physically and mentally. Responses to this vary, although the majority of consumers aim to balance the benefits and costs of busy lifestyles. This, in turn, raises the demand for nutritious foods that are easy to prepare, convenient and portable.Indulgent treats play a role in relaxation and enjoyment.
5. Tapping into Texture
Last year’s leading trend “Discovery: the adventurous consumer” is still prominent, with consumer demand for something new and different being reflected in more product launches with textural claims. Consumers increasingly recognize the influence of texture on food and beverages, allowing a heightened sensory experience and often a greater feeling of indulgence. According to Innova Market Insights research, 45 % of, on average, US and UK consumers are influenced by texture when buying food and drinks, while 68 % share the opinion that textures contribute to a more interesting food and beverage experience.
The other top trends for 2020 identified by Innova Market Insights are:
6. Macronutrient Makeover
7. Hello Hybrids
8. A Star is Born
9. Eat Pretty
10. Brand Unlimited
The promotional campaign of the 37th edition of Macfrut, the trade fair for the fresh produce industry to be held in May 2020 in Rimini (Italy), has begun. International missions are underway and early booking is now available.
Registrations are now open for the next edition of Macfrut, the international fruit and vegetable trade fair organised by Cesena Fiera, which will be held from 5 to 7 May 2020 at the Rimini Expo Centre (Italy). Last year’s numbers show that Macfrut is a growing trade fair, which year after year has become a major benchmark event for companies operating in the sector and seeking to expand their network of business contacts in new markets. In 2019, 43,500 visitors came to Rimini to attend the three-day event, and a quarter of them were from abroad: 50 % from Europe, 17 % from Central and South America, 14 % from Eastern Europe and Russia, 10 % from Africa, and 9 % from the Middle and Far East. As far as exhibitors are concerned, 20 % of the more than 1,000 participating companies were from abroad. The following is a breakdown of exhibitors by sector: 39 % production and trade, 17 % machinery and technology for sorting and packing, 14 % packaging, 13 % logistics and services, 7 % machinery and technology for plant growing and protection, 5 % plant nurseries and seeds, and 5 % fertilisers and crop protection products.
The 37th edition of Macfrut will be packed with brand new content to further increase business opportunities for companies in the fresh produce industry. Among these, the “Spices & Herbs Global Expo”, an area entirely dedicated to the world of spices, officinal and aromatic herbs, will be set up for the first time not only in Rimini but also in Europe. In addition to the exhibition area, interested companies will have the opportunity to participate in various side events and conferences on these topics and to reach out to and make contact with new customers from all over the world, especially from Asia and Africa, and to benefit from a custom schedule of B2B meetings. On this occasion, Ismea – Institute of Services for the Agricultural and Food Market – will introduce the Global observatory on spices and officinal herbs and, for the first time, will provide an overview of this rapidly growing sector, although the data currently available is not yet sufficient to provide a snapshot of the situation.
With the early booking offer, which is valid until 31 December 2019, companies interested in participating in the 2020 edition can register at a reduced fee. All the details are available in the dedicated section of the official website of Macfrut, www.macfrut.com.
As the next step in its sustainability journey, Crown Holdings, Inc. has signed onto the Science-Based Targets initiative, a project that aims to spur corporate climate action in the transition to a low-carbon economy. To join the initiative, Crown will set specific goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions in alignment with the Paris Agreement of 2015, through which international governments collectively pledged to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
In preparation for setting these ambitious new targets, Crown’s Chief Executive Officer, Timothy Donahue, has signed the commitment letter confirming Crown will develop new goals to be reviewed and approved by the SBTi committee. Crown plans to announce its goals in early 2020 and report on progress annually. In the interim, the Company continues to work toward achieving its 2020 Sustainability Goals and making additional strides in its ongoing commitment to the RE100 initiative.
“We have made tremendous progress toward our 2020 Sustainability Goals, which include a 10 % GHG reduction goal,” said John Rost, Ph.D., Vice President, Global Sustainability and Regulatory Affairs at Crown. “Committing to and striving to achieve science-based targets is the next natural progression for the Company. Our culture of safety, efficiency and resource conservation as well as the unrivaled sustainability profile of our primary product – metal packaging – will continue to play a critical role in our ability to meet our next set of milestones.”
The 2019-2020 orange crop forecast update for São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on September 10, 2019 by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – is of 388.42 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. This figure corresponds to a decrease of 0.12 % in relation to the estimate published in May/2019. Approximately 27,14 million boxes of the total crop should be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region. …
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha andNatal. 2Departamentof Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp Campus Jaboticabal.
Free From Functional & Health Ingredients (FFF&HI) broke records when it welcomed more than 7,800 key buyers and decision makers from the free from food, drink and sustainable packaging industries through its doors in Barcelona from 28 – 29 May. Now in its seventh year, this staggering 52 % increase on visitor numbers reflects the dynamic growth and development of the global free from market and cements the show as Europe’s leading platform for the free from industries.
Visitors took advantage of the unique platform the show provides, informing and inspiring decision makers from the world of retail, ingredients, wholesale, distribution and foodservice with a packed schedule of conference sessions, pioneering brands and products plus multiple networking opportunities.
Leading the field
Five core areas of the free from market; free from, vegan, natural and organic, functional and health ingredients were represented across four conference stages with insights from key speakers.
Highlights from the packed conference schedule revealed the latest data covering key areas including the 11.5 % increase in sales of free from foods across Europe in the past year1 and the 133 % growth of the UK free from market since FFF&HI began in 2013.2
Show partners, ProVeg International hosted a dedicated vegan area and a series of seminars at the vegan conference stage. Verena Wiederkehr, International Head of Food Industry and Retail at ProVeg International revealed the most prominent trends driving the sector including sensory experiences, clean-label products and raw materials, explaining the opportunities for businesses who tap into this buoyant sector.
FFF&HI was the platform for new brands and product launches from those shaping the organic, vegan, functional foods and ingredients markets.
On the first day, FFF&HI unveiled the winner of its Product of the Year Awards – a celebration of the most cutting-edge free from food and drink products launched in the past year. Manufacturers and producers put their best innovations for contention to be crowned winner and runner up across three categories, Product of the Year, Best New Brand, Free From Plastics.
Product of the Year Award
Winner: Qwrkee Foods – Pea M’LK
Runner-up: Pizza Mi – gluten free pizza bases
Best New Brand
Winner: I am Bart’s – Vegan Nutrition Bites
Runner-up: Juustoportti – Organic and Gluten free Oat Drinks made from Finnish Premium Oats
Free From Plastics Packaging
Winner: EncajaBio – Packaging system and cellulose film which sustainably reduces the carbon footprint
The lifetime achievement award was given to Molino Nicoli, European leaders in gluten free cereal-based production, who have exhibited at FFF&HI since the first show in 2013.
I Am Bart’s launched a range organic snack bars made with vegetables, fruit and seeds without preservatives and added sugars. Commenting on winning Best New Brand, Founder, Bart Veldkamp said: “We are delighted to have won an award, especially as it’s our first time exhibiting at a trade show. We’ve been impressed with this dynamic show and the high quality of the visitors. The team has worked very hard and we are very proud of this win. It’s great to be recognised as we’re in the company of such interesting brands showcasing fantastic products – I’m very proud to be surrounded by such great innovators!”
FFF&HI Exhibition Director, Ronald Holman commented: “It was fantastic to return to Barcelona and we are absolutely delighted with the number of visitors that came to discover what’s happening at the forefront of the free from industry. It’s great to see returning exhibitors and new ones coming to showcase such a diverse range of products and the industry leading experts who drive the market forward.
We’ve received a fantastic response from show visitors and exhibitors alike. We’re looking forward to hearing about the outcomes for our exhibitors this year and seeing what the show will bring in 2020.”
FFF&HI will return for its eighth edition in Amsterdam from 23-24 June, 2020.
The prices paid to the orange growers from São Paulo and the Triângulo Mineiro region in the 2019/20 season should be positive, despite the larger production, since inventories are forecast to, again, decrease to critical levels at the processors from SP State (because of the lower production in 2018/19), underpinning the demand for the fruit.
According to estimates from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) released in August/18, the ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent forecast to June 30 2019, at 146.7 thousand tons, would only be enough for a two-month exporting period. Therefore, this scenario could underpin orange prices in the Brazilian market in 2019, despite the high production in the 2019/20 season – although positive, the ending stocks in June/18 (related to the 2017/18 crop) were not too large.
Indeed, the first bids from large-sized processors for the oranges from the 2019/20 crop started early again (in October/18). Bidding prices were around 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processors (with the possibility of a bonus added to the orange selling price in the international market). In the 2018/29 crop, the first bids were around 20 BRL per box.
Although cautious at first, citrus growers accepted to trade in mid-November, fearing that bidding prices could drop in the following months. Early purchases have been a strategy of large-sized processors since 2016 (when they started closing deals in October, although the 2017/18 crop was one of the largest in all times).
PRODUCTION – Citrus growers believe that the 2019/20 crop will be positive, based on the weather, which favored plants development during blossoming and fruitlet settlement. The main blossoming, which occurred between August and September in most orchards, were large.
In mid-December, the wide temperature range led part of the fruitlets to drop in some regions, mainly in late orange orchards, which are more sensitive to the weather. However, citrus farmers believe these losses should not be significant to the next season results. Still, some growers do not expect a super crop and believe the volume harvested will only recover in 2019/20; others forecast a 40% increase compared to 2018/19.
TAHITI LIME – The tahiti lime volume forecast to be harvested during the crop peak in São Paulo State, in the first quarter of 2019, is also positive. According to Brazilian agents, production may be higher than that from 2018, since the rains in the second semester last year were more frequent and well distributed.
Despite the higher supply, the demand from processors may help to underpin the prices paid to growers, controlling availability in the in natura segment. The good exports performance should also help to underpin tahiti lime quotes, even during the crop peak – shipments may continue at a fast pace, due to the firm demand for the fruit, mainly from Europe, where consumption has been increasing.