Recycled aluminum will minimise impact of tariffs on 70 billion beverage cans sold in US in 2025, says GlobalData

On 3 June 2025, the US announced it would impose 50 % tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports. This move represented an escalation compared to the 25 % tariff previously imposed on such imports on 10 February 2025. These policies create challenges for US manufacturers and users of packaging made of imported steel and aluminum. However, domestic recycling is enabling US aluminum can manufacturers to avoid the worst effects of tariffs, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s recent report “Industry Insights: The impact of tariffs on consumer packaged goods” reveals which CPG-relevant sectors are most affected by tariffs within specific trade relationships and how companies in these sectors will be affected. It also provides insights into consumer reactions to changes in the market caused by the imposition of tariffs.

Rory Gopsill, Senior Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, comments: ” Unlike many other industries that rely significantly on metal imports, beverage can manufacturers in the US obtain a considerable share of their raw materials from recycled sources. The Aluminum Association reports that over 70 % of the aluminum utilised in domestic beverage cans is derived from recycled content. This closed-loop supply chain provides can manufacturers with a degree of insulation from US tariffs on imported aluminum as part of efforts to safeguard domestic industries and address trade imbalances with China and other exporting nations.”

In 2025, 99.6 billion rigid metal beverage cans are forecast to be sold in the US, according to GlobalData’s Primary Packaging and Outers Database. The Aluminum Association’s assertion that over 70 % of aluminum used in domestic beverage cans is recycled suggests that, of the total, 70 billion rigid metal beverage cans are made of recycled aluminum, leaving roughly 30 billion with significant exposure to tariffs on aluminum.

Tariffs create both opportunities and challenges for US recycling

Can manufacturers typically choose recycled aluminum over virgin aluminum because it is financially and environmentally less costly. This is because producing usable aluminum via recycling requires 95 % less energy than producing usable aluminum from scratch. In this respect, tariffs could create opportunities for US-based aluminum recycling plants as tariffs create yet more financial incentives for packaging manufacturers to utilise recycled materials. In other respects, however, tariffs create problems for the US’ recycling industry. For example, shipping recycled materials across national borders in North America is complicated by tariffs, with only US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)-compliant goods being tariff exempt.

Gopsill concludes: “In a volatile economic climate, where global supply chains are increasingly politicised, the US beverage can sector’s embrace of recycled aluminum stands out as a model of resilience. By leveraging domestic, sustainable materials, the industry not only reduces environmental impact but also cushions itself from macroeconomic shocks – proof that circularity and competitiveness can go hand in hand.”