Brazilian orange juice: By 2018/19, inventory should be the second smallest since 1988/89

Despite the positive ending stock scenario in July (referring to the 2017/18 crop), CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) estimates a tight carry over for orange juice by June 2019 (2018/19 crop), at around 146.7 thousand tons.

This amount would be enough for two months of exportations, at the most, the second smallest in the CitrusBR series (which started in 1988/89) and 5.6 % lower than the minimum stablished by the Association in May, at 154.7 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent. The critical volume is due to the smaller crop forecast for the citrus belt, at only 288.29 million boxes, 27.6 % down compared to the 2017/18 season.

New estimates from Citrus BR are based on an average industrial yield at 259 boxes of 40.8 kilos of oranges to produce one ton of FCOJ, higher than that last season, due to the dry period in the citrus belt – approximately 120 days. The lack of rains, according to CitrusBR, should significantly affect the initial volume forecast by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund), released in May (which still did not consider the scenario from May to July).

As for the 2017/18 crop, CitrusBR reported ending stocks at 343 thousand tons of FCOJ Equivalent on June 30 2018 at the processors from SP. That amount accounts for a significant recovery at 219.6 % compared to the volume at the end of 2016/17.

This positive result is linked to the larger harvest at the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 2017/18, which totaled 398.35 million boxes of 40.8 kilos, 62.4 % more than in 2016/17, according to Fundecitrus. Compared to the average in the last 10 years, the output was 25% larger and the largest since 2011/12 (when it totaled 416 million boxes). The positive harvest in 2017/18 ensured comfortable inventories at processors, which, however, cannot be considered a surplus.

IN NATURA MARKET – Despite the weak demand, pear orange quotes remain at high levels in Brazil. As crushing of mid-season fruits steps up at processors from SP, and with the low supply of good quality oranges at orchards, availability is low in the spot. Thus, pear orange quotes averaged 27.85 BRL per 40.8-kilo box (on tree) in the first fortnight of August, 5.9% higher than in the same period of July.