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Market Data 11/10/2017

Florida Citrus November forecast: maturity test results and fruit size

The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 50.0 million boxes, down 4.00 million boxes from the October forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 27 percent less than last season’s production and the least since the 1945-1946 season of 49.0 million boxes.

Florida Citrus November forecast: maturity test results and fruit size
Florida Citrus November forecast: maturity test results and fruit size (Photo: USDA)

All Oranges 50.0 Million Boxes

The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 50.0 million boxes, down
4.00 million boxes from the October forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 27 percent less than last season’s production and the least since the 1945-1946 season of 49.0 million boxes. The forecast consists of 21.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 29.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2007-2008 through 2016-2017 seasons. For those previous 10 seasons, the November forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 7 percent, with 8 seasons above and 2 below, with differences ranging from 9 percent below to 19 percent above. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons unless noted.

Non-Valencia Oranges 21.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered 2.00 million boxes to 21.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and is projected to be above the maximum until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 600 thousand boxes, and is 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. Current Navel size is above the maximum, and droppage is above the maximum.

Valencia Oranges 29.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is reduced 2.00 million boxes to 29.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.

All Grapefruit 4.65 Million Boxes

The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 250 thousand boxes to 4.65 million boxes. If realized, this forecast will be 40 percent less than last season’s production and the least since the 1918-1919 season of 3.50 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is lowered 50 thousand boxes to 850 thousand. The red grapefruit forecast is lowered 200 thousand boxes and is now at 3.80 million boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is below average while projected droppage is above the maximum. Projected fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average and projected droppage is projected to be above the maximum.

Tangerines and Tangelos 950 Thousand Boxes

The forecast for the tangerine and tangelos is reduced 50 thousand boxes to 950 thousand, 41 percent less than last season’s production. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

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