Replenishment of orange juice inventories depends on a large crop in 2018/2019

Confirming initial expectations of Cepea, ending stocks of orange juice at processors from São Paulo State should be recovered by the end of the 2017/18 season (June/18), but the levels stored continue to indicate low orange juice supply.

Data from CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) indicate that inventories at Cutrale, Citrosuco and Louis Dreyfus should total only 207.6 thousand tons of frozen concentrate orange juice (FCOJ) Equivalent on June 30, 2018. That amount, however, is 93 % higher than the 107 thousand tons observed at the end of the 2016/17 season.

This increase of inventory is based on crushing forecasts of CitrusBR at 314.47 million boxes, with an average processing yield at 267.33 boxes to produce one ton of FCOJ Equivalent, and sales (domestic and international) at 1.107 million tons of the product. All these items are forecast to recover from the scenario observed last season (2016/17); however, yield should remain at levels below the historical average.

A significant recovery will only be possible due to a large crop in the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro), forecast by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) at 364.47 million boxes. However, the possibility of replenishments of inventories (greater than 200 thousand tons) in June 2019 will depend, once again, on a large production at the citrus belt in the 2018/19 season. According to Cepea data, if sales, yield and volume from other states continue stable, processors will need to crush around 290 million boxes in 2018/19, meaning a crop in the citrus belt from SP + Triângulo Mineiro similar or greater than 340 million boxes (in natura consumption forecast at 50 million).

The replenishment of inventories at processors from São Paulo is a relief in light of the very low supply in the previous crop, when the Brazilian exportations of FCOJ Equivalent dropped 17 %. Therefore, forecasts for a higher orange juice supply may increase the Brazilian exportations in the 2017/18 season.

DOMESTIC MARKET – Pear orange quotes increased in the domestic market in the first fortnight of August, due to higher demand for the in natura fruit (favored by warmer weather in SP and the return of school classes) and crushing intensification in processors from São Paulo, which gradually reduced the volume available in the market. Between August 1 and 15, pear orange quotes averaged 16.54 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 1.4 % up compared to the first fortnight of July (3-14).