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Market Data 13.10.2016

USDA Citrus October Forecast

The 2016-2017 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 70.0 million boxes, 14 percent less than last season’s final production. Temples are excluded from all orange production in 2016-2017.

The 2016-2017 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 70.0 million boxes, 14 percent less than last season’s final production. Temples are excluded from all orange production in 2016-2017. The total includes 34.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 36.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. The Navel orange forecast, at 1.00 million boxes, accounts for 3 percent of the non-Valencia total.

The estimated number of bearing trees for all oranges is 50.8 million. Trees planted in 2013 and earlier are considered bearing this season. Field work for the latest Commercial Citrus Inventory was completed in July 2016. Attrition rates were applied to the results to determine the number of bearing trees which are used to weight and expand objective count data in the forecast model.

The majority of the citrus growing region was drought-free at the beginning of the 2016-2017 citrus growing season. By March, most citrus trees were in full bloom and some had developed small pea to marble size fruit. The citrus growing area remained largely drought free. However, during intermittent times of dry weather, citrus groves required the use of irrigation systems. Temperatures and precipitation were favorable throughout the summer months for fruit growth and continued until the citrus harvest season began in late September.

A 10 year regression has been used for comparison purposes. For those previous 10 seasons, average actual production is 130 million boxes. The initial forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 6 percent with 8 seasons above and 2 below, with differences ranging from 2 percent below to 19 percent above.

Read the full forecast…

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