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Market Data 05.08.2016

WAPA Releases 2016 Crop Forecast – 2016 Again A Strong Pip Fruit Year

More than 300 representatives of the international apple and pear sector met at the Prognosfruit Conference on 4th August 2016 in Hamburg, Germany. This year…

More than 300 representatives of the international apple and pear sector met at the Prognosfruit Conference on 4th August 2016 in Hamburg, Germany. This year the conference celebrates 40 years of existence since the first conference in 1976. During the Prognosfruit Conference, WAPA, the World Apple and Pear Association, released the 2016 European apple and pear crop estimates. The 2016 apple production in the EU will decrease 3 % compared with last year’s crop. The pear crop is predicted by European growers to decrease by 9 % compared with 2015. Except for some frost affecting some Central European countries, overall the climatic conditions have been favourable, leading to good fruit quality conditions.

The figures released at Prognosfruit leave room for careful optimism for the coming season, with a more balanced situation between supply and demand. There will be no overhanging stocks from the previous season, a better balance between fresh and processed output and limited pressure from the Southern Hemisphere. Consequently, the season will start with less pressure than last year. In addition, there has been some positive development in the exports to new markets during the last years, but the effects of the Russian embargo will still be felt by the growers. The good organization of growers and dynamic of exporters have been beneficial in the past years to reposition the sector in new markets and to help cope with difficult seasons. Despite the poor returns to growers of the previous season, the sector stays committed to adapt the orchards to new varieties with better taste and crunchiness wished for by consumers and therefore continue improving the overall quality of the assortment. In addition, the sector stays highly committed to improve the consumer experience and is making efforts to stimulate the consumption as much as possible.

Daniel Sauvaitre, WAPA President, said: “A new season is starting, which will still confront the sector with challenges, domestically and internationally. The quality of the crop and the better balance between supply and demand, will hopefully lead to better returns to growers. For apples, the situation looks slightly better, particularly for the fresh market outlook. Regarding pears, the crop is on the lower end, which might mean less pressure on the market after a difficult season.”

The 2016 European forecast for apple is 12.005.000 T, which is 3 % less than last year and 1 % up compared to the average of the last three years. This figure comes from the estimates of the top 21 Member States of the EU-28 having contributed to this report. In regard to varieties, Golden Delicious production will be down by 7 % to 2.364.000 T. Gala also decreased by 4 % at 1.329.000 T. Idared will be down by 6 % at 1.064.000 T, while Red Delicious is also down by 2 % reaching 633.000 T. Other new varieties (i.e. club varieties) will however increase by 14 % to 530.000 T. A particular point of concern this year was the intense frost, affecting central Europe, in particular Slovenia, Austria, and parts of Croatia and Hungary. Significant changes in other Northern Hemisphere countries are Canada (+24 %), Turkey (+16 %), USA (+12 %) and Russia (+2 %), while the production decreased in Mexico (-16 %) and Switzerland (-5 %). Belarus’ apple production will remain similar to last year and the Ukraine shows a 1 % increase.

The total pear crop in 2016 will reach 2.170.000 T, which is 9 % less than last year and also 9 % less compared to the average of the last three years. This figure relates to the production of the top 19 Member States of the EU-28 growing pears and contributing with their data to this report. In 2016, the Conference variety will see its production decrease by 5 % to 918.000 T, Abate F will also decrease by 13 % to 290.000 T, and William BC will decrease by 11 % to reach 252.000 T. Elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere crops have either increased compared to last year, as in China (+6 %), Turkey (+5 %) and the Ukraine (+2 %), whereas it decreased in the USA (-3 %) and Switzerland (-16 %) and Belarus (-1 %).

WAPA will continue to monitor the development of the Northern Hemisphere crop and will issue updates whenever feasible and necessary.

The EU Summary can be found here.

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