Due to the cold wave in the South, Southeast and in some areas of the Central-West in Brazil in late June, some citrus producing regions in São Paulo, Paraná and in the south of Minas Gerais registered frosts on June 26. In spite of that, only some areas were affected and producers are still evaluating if there are impacts.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that major concerns are about the tahiti lime, since low temperatures may affect the fruit color in this period of limited supply. As for ponkan tangerine, frosts in this period can accelerate fruit droppage. Moreover, the cold weather may also affect the colour of the fruit.

Prices

The proximity of the new crop continues to press down orange quotations in the natura market – the supply of early fruits is higher. Prices of pear oranges in the in natura market were at BRL 60.48 per 40.8 kg box, on tree, between June 23 and 27, downing 4.1 % compared to that in the previous period.

As for tahiti lime, the price average from June 23-27 is BRL 40.16 per 27.2 kg box, moving down 1.9 % in the same comparison.

Florida

The report released in June by the USDA indicates that the 2024/25 orange crop in Florida is likely to total 12 million 40.8 kg boxes, upping 370 thousand boxes in relation to that released in the May report, but still 33.5 % smaller compared to the season before (2023/24).

Exports

Brazilian shipments of orange juice in the partial of the current season (2024/25 – from July/24 to May/25) continue below the volume registered in the same period of previous crops.

So far, Brazil shipped 730.948 thousand tons of OJ (equivalent to concentrate juice – 66º Brix), which is 22.4 % smaller than that in the same period of the season before (from July/23 to May/24) – data from Comexstat. It is worth noting that, in the first 11 months of previous crops, the volume was close to 1 million tons. The combination of lower quality and high prices have been limiting exports.

The revenue, in turn, continues to grow, boosted by high prices paid for the commodity, especially at the beginning of the season. In the partial of the 2024/25 crop, the revenue has totaled USD 3.285 billion, 33.1 % up in relation to that verified in the same period of the 2023/24 season.

High temperatures in São Paulo state in early October reinforced producers’ concerns, since this scenario can affect both fruits that are on the trees (from the current season, 2023/24) and the production of the next crop (2024/25), especially non-irrigated areas. Therefore, in mid-October, citrus growers were waiting for the rainfall in major producing regions.

So far, the biggest challenge for the current season (2023/24) has been the fact that fruits have wilted, which affects directly the quality, according to players surveyed by Cepea. In normal conditions, this quality loss would press quotations down; however, due to the limited supply this season, prices remain firm.

As for the 2024/25 crop, scenarios are distinct between irrigated and non-irrigated areas. In irrigated regions in São Paulo state, the fruit development is more advanced, but producers were still concerned with high temperatures.

On the other hand, most trees in non-irrigated areas have not blossomed yet. Thus, the return of rains is essential to mitigate the lack of soil humidity and encourage the blossoming.

The new heat wave in São Paulo state has been concerning citrus growers. Temperatures are higher than those registered in the last wave, in September, and lasting longer. Thus, many producers say that the weather may affect the 2024/25 production, but it is still early to estimate possible impacts.

Up until mid-November, high temperatures have been affecting areas with fruitlets. It is worth noting that, in the heat wave observed in September, areas with fruitlets (which had registered flowers in August) were the most affected, since weather conditions have caused fruitlets to fall.

Areas with late flowers (verified in less than 30 days) may also be damaged by the hot weather – these flowers blossomed earlier and the development stage is more advanced. Moreover, citrus growers indicate possible impacts on bigger fruits, especially in trees with high incidence of greening, with less leaves and/or in bad nutrition.

In irrigated areas, in turn, damages tend to be mitigated, since flowers are in a more advanced stage. However, these areas are located in the north of São Paulo state, where temperatures are usually higher.

As for 2023/24 oranges, players surveyed by Cepea report impacts on the quality. Many fruits are withered and sunburned, and consumers usually do not want to buy fruits with these conditions – in many cases, it is necessary to accelerate the harvest in order to avoid the premature fruit fall.

TAHITI LIME – The heat wave has also been affecting the tahiti lime. As rains have not been frequent in major producing regions, the supply has not increased in a significant way, and most fruits are small.

Despite the smaller size, producers have been harvesting fruits in order to take advantage of high prices and to avoid that the hot weather affects the quality even more.

Over the past 10 to 20 years, the ripples of change in the global soft drinks market have threatened to become tidal waves, with new categories emerging constantly and genuine novelty flooding the shelves.

According to a new report from Innova Market Insights, which highlights that in the global shift in soft drinks, juices and carbonates may still be the two most active sub-categories worldwide but growth is clearly much faster in alternative areas. For example, Ready-to-drink (RTD) sports drinks saw launch numbers increase at a CAGR of 26 % over 2014-2018, compared with 12 % CAGR for iced tea and coffee and 10 % CAGR for ‘other’ soft drinks, including novelties such as herbal drinks, jelly drinks and vinegar drinks.

Flavor trends also demonstrate the changing face of the market. The fastest growing flavors in recent years include matcha tea (+49 % CAGR 2013-2018), apple cider vinegar (+21 % CAGR) and kombucha (+21 % CAGR), all of which are thriving concepts from Asia that are now distinguishing themselves on a global platform.

As well as the emergence of new categories, overlap between existing varieties is continuing. ‘Hello Hybrids’, one of Innova’s Top 10 Trends for 2020, is perhaps nowhere as important as in the soft drinks arena. ‘Category definitions are blurring all the time,’ says Lu Ann Williams, Director of Innovation at Innova Market Insights. “For example, in the US, Odwalla has recently developed the Smoobucha, which is a blend of fruit smoothie with fermented kombucha.”

At the same time, as suppliers seek new platforms for success, segmentation is also changing the face of the soft drinks shelves. For example, Water+ is an established concept but is continuing to evolve beyond vitaminization and added energy, with fiber, probiotics, collagen and mood ingredients all finding their way into modern waters.