Orange supply has been low in Brazil since early 2023. In April, the pear oranges available in the market were the ones that ripen out of the usual period. However, the ones that were harvested earlier are not well accepted by consumers in the table market, since they did not reach the ideal maturation stage.

Despite low supply, pear orange prices weakened, due to the arrival of early varieties, such as hamlin, westin and rubi, to the market. Last month, the average price for pear oranges closed at BRL 46.87 per 40.8-kg box (on tree), 3.08 % lower than that from March but still 11.56 % higher than that in April last year, in nominal terms.

As the availability of pear oranges is low, many farmers – majorly in northern SP – tried to anticipate the harvesting of early varieties, aiming to take advantage of the current firm prices and make cash flow during the inter-harvest.

Ponkan tangerine

The prices for ponkan tangerine dropped last month too. While in March, supply was low, in April, the harvesting stepped up. Still, availability was not that high. The average price for ponkan tangerine closed at BRL 64.07 per 27-kg box (on tree) in April, 8.56 % lower than that in March but 40.6 % up from that in April/22, in nominal terms.

Tahiti lime

Opposite to the scenarios observed in the markets of oranges and ponkan tangerine, for tahiti lime, prices are on the rise, boosted by low supply – as the peak of harvest took place in the first bimester of 2023, supply in lower now.

Fresh lemon production for MY 2019/2020 is forecast at 1.6 MMT, down 11 % from 2018/19, as trees cyclically lower production in response to a heavy blossom the prior marketing year. Orange and tangerine production is projected at 720,000 MT and 390,000 MT, down 10 % and 13 % respectively, due to unfavorable weather conditions which affected fruit blossom.

MY 2019/2020 lemon exports are forecast at 300,000 MT, up 25% from 2018/19 primarily due to lower global supplies, reduced domestic demand for processing and expanded export market opportunities. Sweet citrus exports are expected to decrease slightly to 70,000 MT for oranges and 35,000 MT for tangerines. Smaller production and relatively high production costs have reduced Argentina’s ability to compete in international markets for sweet citrus against other Southern Hemisphere exporters, mainly South Africa.

Domestic consumption of lemons for MY 2019/2020 is forecast to remain stable at 150,000 MT, and fresh orange and tangerine consumption is projected to fall to 300,000 MT and 220,000 MT, respectively, due to smaller production. …

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: https://bit.ly/39q64da

All Oranges 50.0 Million Boxes

The 2017-2018 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 50.0 million boxes, down
4.00 million boxes from the October forecast. If realized, this forecast will be 27 percent less than last season’s production and the least since the 1945-1946 season of 49.0 million boxes. The forecast consists of 21.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 29.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. Regression data used are from the 2007-2008 through 2016-2017 seasons. For those previous 10 seasons, the November forecast has deviated from final production by an average of 7 percent, with 8 seasons above and 2 below, with differences ranging from 9 percent below to 19 percent above. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons unless noted.

Non-Valencia Oranges 21.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of non-Valencia production is lowered 2.00 million boxes to 21.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and is projected to be above the maximum until harvest. The Navel forecast, included in the non-Valencia forecast, is unchanged at 600 thousand boxes, and is 3 percent of the non-Valencia total. Current Navel size is above the maximum, and droppage is above the maximum.

Valencia Oranges 29.0 Million Boxes

The forecast of Valencia production is reduced 2.00 million boxes to 29.0 million boxes. Current fruit size is below average and is projected to be below average at harvest. Current droppage is above the maximum and projected to be above the maximum at harvest.

All Grapefruit 4.65 Million Boxes

The forecast of all grapefruit production is lowered 250 thousand boxes to 4.65 million boxes. If realized, this forecast will be 40 percent less than last season’s production and the least since the 1918-1919 season of 3.50 million boxes. The white grapefruit forecast is lowered 50 thousand boxes to 850 thousand. The red grapefruit forecast is lowered 200 thousand boxes and is now at 3.80 million boxes. Projected fruit size of white grapefruit at harvest is below average while projected droppage is above the maximum. Projected fruit size of red grapefruit at harvest is projected to be above average and projected droppage is projected to be above the maximum.

Tangerines and Tangelos 950 Thousand Boxes

The forecast for the tangerine and tangelos is reduced 50 thousand boxes to 950 thousand, 41 percent less than last season’s production. This forecast number includes all certified tangerine and tangelo varieties.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

The 2016-2017 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is up 200,000 boxes from last month, and is now at 68.7 million boxes. The total comprises 33.0 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties), unchanged from last month, and 35.7 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 200,000 boxes from last month.

The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is unchanged at 7.80 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 1.50 million boxes are white and 6.30 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast remains at 1.62 million boxes.

The forecast includes 600,000 boxes of the early tangerines (Fallglo and Sunburst), 210,000 boxes of Royal tangerines, 530,000 thousand boxes of Honey tangerines, and 280,000 boxes of tangelos. The Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice (FCOJ) yields as reported by the Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC), Report No. 39, for the period ending July 1, 2017, at 42 °Brix are: all oranges at 1.416618 gallons per box, late (Valencia) portion at 1.536500 gallons, and non-Valencia oranges at 1.336596 gallons.

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov