Although it is the offseason period for the tahiti lime, quotations decreased in early November. The downward trend is related to both the size and the quality of the fruit, which are below expected by the sector. However, it is worth noting that price levels are still high.

According to data from Cepea, tahiti lime prices averaged BRL 95.59 per 27.2-kg box in mid-November, downing 16.17 % against late October.

It is worth noting that the price average for the tahiti lime was at BRL 117.94/box last month, 72.2 % more than in September and moving up 71 % against October last year, in nominal terms.

Season in Florida

The 2023/24 orange season finished in September in Florida. The Citrus Department of that state in the Unites States indicated in October that local juice stocks, as observed in Brazil, finished the season at low levels.

The limited orange supply has been frequent in the US, considering that the country has become majorly an orange juice importer since the advance of greening in Florida.

It is worth noting that Brazil is the major orange juice supplier for the US market. The fact that the Brazilian industry faced both low supply and high prices in the 2023/24 season (which limited exports) might have prevented a recovery of stocks in Florida.

Regular rains registered in tahiti lime producing areas since mid-September have been gradually increasing the supply of this fruit. Thus, the tahiti lime supply in October was slightly higher and it may increase more in November. The peak season is expected in December.

Due to the increasing supply, players surveyed by Cepea expect tahiti lime prices to move down in November, decreasing even more from December on.

In October, the tahiti lime was traded at BRL 68.92 per 27-kg box (harvested) in São Paulo state, downing 4.1 % in relation to September/23 and a decrease of 17.4 % compared to October/22, in nominal terms.

Orange

The season of late varieties was intensified in mid-October, and valência was the variety that was most offered, but volumes of natal oranges were also available in the market. The amount of these fruits is expected to increase significantly in November, taking part of pear orange share and increasing its importance in the juice industry. As for pear oranges, the supply has been reducing. In October, the average price was BRL 52.44 per 40.8-kg box (on tree), 11.4 % above that in September.

Tahiti lime prices have been firm in the citrus-producing regions in São Paulo State since mid-June. However, in the first fortnight of August, quotations skyrocketed. Supply has decreased even more steeply, while demand is beginning to warm up – it is important to consider that this year’s winter has been warmer than the average.

Between August 1st and 15th, the average price for tahiti lime closed at BRL 76.70 per 27-kg box (harvested) a staggering 111.87 % up from that in July and 106.85 % above the average in the first fortnight of August of 2022, in nominal terms.

Some growers managed to sell the box for BRL 100.00 in the first half of August. With prices at high levels, many growers harvested all the fruits they were able to, in order to ensure a good revenue, offsetting at least part of the financial losses from the peak of harvest, when quotations were lower than BRL 10/box.

Cepea, collaborators believe that prices will continue high for some time, since supply in SP is only expected to resume rising after the return of rains, which usually occurs in September.

According to Cepea collaborators, in general, fruits quality (peel, amount of juice and size) is considered good, being higher in irrigated orchards – where fruits are growing bigger.

EXPORT – Domestic valuations have influenced the export value for the Brazilian tahiti lime. However, agents believe shipments will decrease soon, since sales in Brazil are expected to get good remuneration and thus reduce the attractiveness of the international market.

It is important to mention that this year’s shipments are currently at record levels, at 103.4 thousand tons (lemons and limes), 0.7 % higher than that from the same period last year, according to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat). Revenue is at USD 99.25 million, 4.4 % higher, in the same comparison.

After fading for some weeks, tahiti lime prices increased in the second week of June, due to lower supply. Players surveyed by Cepea reported that farmers have reduced the harvesting pace, expecting higher prices in the coming weeks.

In that scenario, between June 12 – 15, the average price closed at BRL 17.96 (harvested), 33.8 % up compared to that in the previous week. This valuation brought some relief to farmers, since quotations had been low since mid-May and that some producers were working with negative margins.

Players surveyed by Cepea expect supply to decrease even more up until the end of June, which may boost values in the domestic market and export prices. However, weak demand may limit valuations, since the weather is cold, which usually discourages consumption. The weather has also been limiting the quality of tahiti lime.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET – The international demand for lemons and limes from Brazil has been increasing. May is not a month of significant shipments, but, this year, the performance was above-average. Secex indicates that Brazil exported almost 23.1 thousand tons in May, 42 % more than the volume shipped in April and 78 % up from that in May last year.

Opposite to the expected by the agents from the Brazilian citrus sector, tahiti lime prices increased in São Paulo State in March, despite the crop peak. The boost came from higher demand, since, in the second fortnight of the month, people were trying to eat healthier, increasing the consumption of vitamin C, because of the coronavirus outbreak worldwide.

However, most of the demand was linked to the increase in the purchases from distributors, retailers and consumers for stocking. Besides, the closure of schools, street markets and grocery stores, and lower sales in restaurants may also reduce the demand for the fruit.

In March, the average price for tahiti lime was 22.2 % higher than that in February, at 12.52 BRL per 27-kilo box.

As regards exports, agents reported a decrease in the volumes shipped, since the coronavirus outbreak affected Europe more severely, so far. Besides, the lower availability of containers for exports and the cancelation of air deliveries also reduced sales to the international market. Thus, tahiti lime prices for exports were lower than quotes in the Brazilian market in March, averaging 12.29 BRL per 27-kilo box.

ORANGE – The demand for oranges was firm in March, and prices remained stable in the Brazilian market. According to growers, the quarantine decree in São Paulo State and the consequent halt in some activities reduced labor, limiting supply and logistic operations. Thus, orange availability was low and, now, many agents are waiting for some early varieties, such as westin and rubi, to ripen in order to start trading.

In March, the average price for pear oranges was 35.35 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 6.9 % up compared to that in February. The maturation stage requested by the in natura market is forecast to be reached in most groves between April and May.

Orange prices were weakened in the Brazilian market in May, due to both the colder weather and high supply at the orchards from SP.

As crushing increases in Brazil, citrus farmers tend to reduce orange supply to the in natura market, aiming to prioritize the trades already closed with processing plants – which may prevent prices from dropping more sharply – many farmers allocated large volumes of early oranges to the in natura segment in May, waiting for crushing to start at the industry.

Between May 2 and 31, pear orange quotes averaged 21.17 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 33.4 % down compared to that between April 1 and 30.

Concerning tahiti lime, besides the higher supply, quotes were pressed down by the low demand, from both the Brazilian and the international markets. In May, tahiti lime quotes averaged 15.21 BRL per 27-kilo box, on tree, 36.8 % down compared to that in April.

The larger crop estimated by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) for the Brazilian citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) in 2019/20, at 388.89 million boxes of 40.8 kilos (36 % larger than that from the 2018/19 season), should offset the inventories at processing plants from São Paulo in June 2020, according to Cepea estimates. However, this is not a high supply scenario, since the volume produced in 2018/19 was small and processing plants need to purchase raw material in order to replenish the low inventories forecast for June 2019.

According to CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters) estimates from Feb/19, the 2018/19 season should end, in June/19, with the smallest output since June/11, smaller than the strategic amount (of 250 thousand tons). Thus, if these estimates are confirmed, industrial demand may be firm in 2019/20, offsetting higher orange supply – this context has practically been confirmed, considering the anticipated trades closed in late 2018 at firm prices.

According to Cepea’s first estimates, by the end of the 2019/20 season (in June/20), juice inventories may surpass 300 thousand tons (Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice – FCOJ – Equivalent). For this calculation, Cepea considered the initial inventories forecast by CitrusBR (200.6 thousand tons), 300 million boxes crushed (88 million boxes allocated to the in natura market), average yield at 260 boxes for each ton of orange juice and sales at 1.05 million tons.

Thus, although 300 thousand tons are higher than the strategic level stablished, it is important to consider that production has oscillated in the citrus belt from year to year, with periods of larger volumes followed by years of low production. In this scenario, taking into consideration that the 2020/21 crop may be smaller, inventories should be kept stable at processing plants, aiming to avoid major decreases in the global supply.

PRICES PAID TO CITRUS GROWERS IN 2019/20 – Despite the larger volume forecast for the citrus belt, growers’ revenue should be positive in 2019/20, due to high productivity (which may reduce the cost per unit). Besides, much of the output has been purchased at the same price levels from 2018/19, between 20 and 22 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at processing plants (counting or not on a participation additional in the juice selling price in the international market).

Harvesting of the late oranges from the 2018/19 crop, which started in the first fortnight of August, should step up in September. Thus, with higher supply of other varieties, the farmers consulted by Cepea believe pear orange quotes (which have been higher than in 2017 since May/18, despite the crop peak) will not oscillate as much next month.

In light of the low pear orange supply this year, due to the weather, processors started to purchase late oranges (mainly valência) last month – only the fruits in the ideal maturation stage demanded by this segment were purchased. Therefore, the delivery of these varieties is expected to step up in the second fortnight of September, with a higher share of natal oranges.

In general, citrus farmers consider good the quality of the late oranges in irrigated orchards, since they can still grow until the harvesting steps up. However, on the farms with no irrigation, the drought has already affected production – either by staining the peel or by preventing the fruits from growing up.

PEAR – As for pear oranges, whose prices are over 34 BRL per box, on tree (for higher quality fruits), quotes are expected to increase even more until the end of the crop, since many farmers have reported low supply of that variety. In September, however, higher availability of late oranges should constrain significant price rises (since processors will still be selective regarding valência and natal purchases, until they reach the ideal standard for harvesting).

In August, pear orange quotes averaged 29.08 BRL per 40.8-kilo box in the in natura market, a staggering 77 % up compared to the same period of August/17, in nominal terms. The boost came from low supply in São Paulo State in 2018/19, large purchases from processors from SP and the volumes already sold through mid and long-term contracts. Thus, if competition between processors increases, prices in the field may rise even more in the coming months. Pear orange productivity should have the sharpest decrease compared to 2017/18, at 31.2 %.

TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime quotes also increased in August. According to Cepea collaborators, many farmers interrupted harvesting, aiming to push up prices again – once the variety, still green, may stay longer on trees. Besides, international demand increased in that period too. Thus, between August 1 and 31, tahiti lime quotes averaged 35.75 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, 21.4 % up compared to that between July 2 and 31.

Tahiti lime supply is expected to continue low next month, which may boost prices. In the off-season period (from September to October), many of the fruits still on tree will not have reached the ideal size and color to be harvested. Farmers believe tahiti lime volumes will increase only in November – if it rains during these months and if the volume is enough to favor fruits development on tree.