The harvesting of the oranges out of the ideal period from the 2018/19 crop was ending in São Paulo State in March, while the availability of the first early oranges from the new season (2019/20) was increasing, helping to supply the market.
Although still low, the availability of the first oranges from the 19/20 crop in the market limited the upward trend of pear orange quotes, observed in the first two months of the year. In March, pear orange quotes averaged 42.23 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, 3.8 % up compared to that in February.
However, most of the early oranges from 2019/20 had not reached the ideal maturation stage demanded in the in natura market, which limited new deals. Concerning the pear and late oranges remaining from the 2018/19 season, only a few growers still had available amounts to sell in the in natura market – and, in general, lower quality also hampered trades.
The low supply scenario in the offseason period resulted from the lower production (almost 30 %) in the citrus belt in 2018/19 – estimated by Fundecitrus at only 284.88 million boxes of 40.8 kilos, according to the report released in February. Thus, in March, pear orange quotes increased sharply compared to the same period last year (in nominal terms): a staggering 46.3 %.
For April (mainly the second fortnight), the agents consulted by Cepea expect the supply of all varieties from the 2019/20 to increase, based on the possible favorable weather to the development of the fruits that are still on tree. Besides, it is worth to remember that crushing is currently at a slow pace at the processing plants from SP, which should allocate all the fruits available to the in natura market in April.
TAHITI LIME – As for tahiti lime, international demand helped to lower supply in the Brazilian market in March. Thus, quotes averaged 16.87 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, last month, 11.7 % up compared to that in February.
Demand from processing plants was low and the availability of fruits from the second blossoming was gradually increasing, which may press down quotes in April, mainly in the second fortnight – if the weather favors fruits growth.
The supply of larger-sized tahiti lime increased in São Paulo State in November, due to rains. And as larger-sized fruits arrived at the market, the availability of small-sized tahiti lime decreased – until mid-November, the supply of small-sized fruits was high, since farmers were interested in trading them at high price levels.
In that scenario, quotes were 47.7 % lower than in October, averaging 39.57 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, last month. As for liquidity, sales decreased in the Brazilian market too.
PERSPECTIVES – At processors, crushing is forecast to step up only in mid-January – prices have not been estimated yet. This year, the average tahiti lime quotes were higher than in 2017 most part of the year (except for March, July and August), pushed up by lower supply and firm demand, from both Brazilian processors and the international market.
ORANGE – Higher supply and weakened demand pressed down pear orange quotes by 7.9 % from October to November, to the average of 30.24 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, last month. In general, rains and the slight cold front during the month halted the citrus market. However, although demand decreased, the harvesting was limited by precipitation, constraining sharper price drops.
FIELD – The heavy rains from October and November in the main citrus producing regions from São Paulo State concerned Brazilian citrus growers regarding the quality of the mature oranges from the current season (2018/19). High moisture was leading the late fruits to grow up to large sizes before the ideal harvesting period (due to the higher water concentration), reducing acceptance in the in natura market.
This scenario may also reduce yield at processors. Still, farmers believe these fruits may be accepted for crushing, which may limit volume reductions, based on the smaller production in 2018/19.
Opposite to the expected by agents, tahiti lime supply has been controlled in São Paulo State, and quotes, underpinned at higher levels. The price average in April/18, at 18.61 BRL per 27-kilo box (harvested) was the second highest for the month, in nominal terms, in all Cepea series, which started in 1996 for this product – compared to March/18, that price average is 34.2 % higher.
Previously, agents expected the harvesting of the fruits from the second flowering event to increase tahiti lime availability in the in natura market in April. However, low rain volumes in the citrus belt in the first two months of the year delayed fruits development, extending their period on tree.
Purchasers have claimed difficulty to find good quality tahiti lime in the in natura market. While the amount of mature fruits is low, the new ones are still green, postponing the harvesting. In that scenario, agents fear the volume of tahiti lime may increase too much in May, which could press down quotes – purposeful harvesting delays may press down quotes as well.
As for the industrial segment, bidding prices in the spot market were around 15 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered at the processor, in April, with only one plant (smaller-sized) receiving that variety.
In the international market, tahiti lime exportations have reached new records in the crop, totaling 32.25 thousand tons from January to March/18, according to Secex. Compared to the same period of the previous season, current shipments are 2.5 % higher.
For the coming weeks, however, competition with Mexico shipments is expected to increase, since supply is reduced in Brazil, but growing in Mexico. According to Fresh Plaza, the weather in Mexico has been favorable to tahiti lime production, and Mexican fruits have reached the ideal color and maturation for trading in that segment.
ORANGE – The first pear oranges from the 2018/19 crop are already available in the in natura market of São Paulo State. According to Cepea collaborators, with low supply and firm prices for this variety, harvesting has been anticipated. The higher availability of green fruits, however, has widened the price gap between the large-sized pear oranges and the small-sized ones.
As for the larger-sized fruits, prices have reached 35 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, while the small-sized fruits from the new season have been traded between 25 BRL and 28 BRL per box. Thus, in April, pear orange quotes averaged 29.83 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, 2.8 % up compared to that in March.
According to agents, the fruits available in the in natura segment have not reached the ideal maturation yet, due to the weather in the first two months of 2018, which delayed the development of some oranges from the 2018/19 season, mainly those from the second flowering event, which, in turn, opened between October and December/17. The slow maturation of these fruits is linked to the high temperatures in early 2018 and the smaller rain amount in the main citrus producing regions from SP, according to Inmet (National Institute of Meteorology in Brazil).
The larger rain volume in March, on the other hand, offset the development delay of the oranges on tree. Still, growers expect the fruits to be ready only from the second fortnight of May onward.
After decreasing in the first fortnight of March, tahiti lime supply increased in the second half of the month in São Paulo State. Although the crop peak has already finished, harvesting of the fruits from the second flowering event increased the volume available in the in natura market. According to agents consulted by Cepea, this second crop had a satisfactory development, due to humid weather in the first months of the year, but supply should not surpass that in the first bimester.
Cepea collaborators estimate the second crop harvesting to step up in April, since the maturation stage of the fruits allowed them to stay on trees last month. Thus, farmers slowed down the harvesting pace in order to avoid significant price losses.
In April, therefore, higher availability may press down quotes if the demand from processors, which was firm in the first quarter of the year, starts to move down. So far, purchases from processors have controlled supply in the in natura market. In March, the average tahiti lime price, at 13.86 BRL per 27-kilo box, harvested, was 2.7% above that in February, crop peak period in São Paulo.
Exportations
Tahiti lime shipments were slow in March, according to exporters. Besides the low price levels in the international market, record amounts of the fruit were sent to the European Union in the first bimester, according to Secex.
In the first two months of 2018, exportations totaled 20.9 thousand tons, 14.3% higher than in the same period last crop and a record for the season, according to Secex. In March, however, the cold weather in Europe (the world’s biggest tahiti lime importer) weakened consumption.
Brazilian market
Low supply of good quality fruits pushed up quotes of early pear oranges, as well as of late oranges, from the 2017/18 season – scenario observed since the second fortnight of February. In March, pear orange prices averaged 29.02 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 28.9% up compared to that in February.
