The 2024/25 crop in Brazil finished officially in June 2025 with an aspect that is in the spotlight: the volume equivalent to concentrate juice (66º Brix) exported is the smallest of Secex series, but the revenue obtained with sales hit a record.

This scenario is related to the limited production of oranges in Brazil in the 2024/25 season, especially of high-quality fruits. Therefore, the industry had difficulties to produce juice that is compatible to the standards required by international consumers. The low supply of orange juice in the international market, in turn, boosted prices.

In the accumulated of the 2024/25 season (from July/24 to June/25), Brazil exported 776.78 thousand tons of juice, 22.7 % less than in the season before and the lowest since 1997, when the Secex series started.

Although the volume shipped had reduced sharply, high prices increased the income significantly. Comparing 2023/24 and 2024/25 crops, the income rose 28.4 %, totaling USD 3.48 billion, a record. If, on one hand, high values boosted the profitability, on the other, they limited the consumption, especially due to the low quality of the product.

2025/26 season

The expectation for the 2025/26 season is for shipments to regain pace, as inventories of high-quality juice increase and part of the demand from abroad is firm again, following the progress of the national production in the second semester of 2025.

Trump‘s tariffs

The 2024/25 finished with concerning limited exports, in a scenario of uncertainties about a full recovery of the international juice consumption. Some agents fear that the demand from abroad may not be firm again, due to the stagnation of the consumption and/or the still undefined effects of the tariff increase implemented by the Trump government on products from Brazil.

Rockstar Energy is looking to shake up the energy drinks category with the launch of Rockstar Energy Blood Orange Zero Sugar – a limited-edition flavour in a brand-new 330 ml £1 price-marked pack (PMP) can. The latest format and flavour is designed to broaden appeal and bring new shoppers into the category, by targeting non-traditional energy drinkers with a more accessible option.

The Blood Orange variant will launch as an initial exclusive to the convenience channel in the UK and taps into a popular summer flavour with its refreshing citrus taste, and a key stimulant flavour already, with citrus worth more than £45m¹.

Debuting in a new 330 ml slim can, the brand is looking to address a common barrier to entry for new energy drink buyers – the larger 500 ml format. Rockstar Energy can now offer a more approachable size and good value price point for those looking to try something new, representing a different, yet affordable on-the-go option for consumers.

¹NielsenIQ RMS, Total Coverage, Stimulants, Carlsberg Britvic Defined, Sales Value, 52wks w/e 03.05.25

The „2025/2026 Tree Inventory and Orange Crop Forecast“ presents the results of the eleventh survey on the tree inventory of São Paulo and west- southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt carried out by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor from the department of Math and Science at FCAV/Unesp from August 2024 to May 2025. The report is based on full remapping and in-field data collection from August 2024 to May 2025 and reflects a notable rebound in orange production following years of challenges …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com

Tropicana, one of the most popular juice brands in the world, has expanded its range with the launch of two of its best sellers in smaller serve cartons in the UK market.

Voted the number one orange juice vs other leading brands in the UK, Tropicana original orange juice is now available, in two varieties – with pulp and without pulp, in a smaller portion carton for the first time. With this 500 ml beverage carton, Tropicana offers more options for consumers to experience its ‘as fresh as from the fruit’ signature taste in an increasingly diverse market.

A key trend in the UK is a progressively ageing population that is creating a shift to more households with older adults and fewer children.

„Now with our best-selling orange juice in 500 ml cartons we have created accessibility for even more UK households to enjoy the great taste, quality and refreshment of Tropicana orange juice at breakfast. This smaller format pack is designed for smaller households such as empty nesters and retirees for whom the larger pack formats of Orange Smooth and Orange Original may not meet their needs. It also allows more price sensitive shoppers to buy into the branded category in light of price inflation, putting Tropicana on breakfast tables in more household demographics.“, says Nikolaos Kokidis, Packaging Procurement Lead Europe, Tropicana.

Consistency in quality

UK consumers also ranked Tropicana highest on fruitiness, real orange flavour, and freshly squeezed taste³ and the consistency in quality is reflected in the choice of cartons for these new product presentations.

„Opting for the Pure-Pak^® carton gives the brand range consistency on the shelves along with our standard carton pack and bulk formats,” adds Nikolaos Kokidis. Consumers are familiar with Tropicana as a leading juice brand in cartons for the UK market.

Cartons are fully recyclable in the UK and with new Simpler Recycling legislation from the Department for Environmental, Food & Rural Affairs⁴ (DEFRA) mandating liquid carton collections at household kerbside from March 2026, consumers can be confident their waste carton reaches a recycling facility.

¹The New Fieldwork Company – May 2023
²Attitudes towards Healthy Eating – UK – 2024 – Mintel
³UK CATA CLT – April 2023
⁴Simpler recycling: workplace recycling in England – GOV.UK

After Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released the estimate in May – of a higher orange output than what was expected by agents, at 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes, – the sector was waiting for a better definition of contracts between the industry and producers to deliver 2025/26 fruits. However, contracts are likely to be closed only from mid-June on.

As the production may be concentrated in the second blossoming, the harvesting can be intensified only after July. Therefore, for now, the small volume of fruits that the industry has been receiving and/or may receive in the coming weeks refers to previous contracts or to fruits traded in the spot market. In this scenario, prices of the orange delivered at the industry registered slight changes in May.

Concerning fruits that have been delivered to the industry, players say that they have shown better quality – which means that a smaller volume of oranges has been necessary to produce juice. This positive scenario, in general, is related to weather conditions, which favored the production.

The US has imposed 10 % tariffs on Brazilian orange juice exports, while the majority of Mexican orange juice exports are likely to be USMCA compliant and therefore tariff-exempt.

This scenario creates opportunities and threats for orange juice exporters in both countries. On the one hand, burdened with a 10 % tariff, Brazilian exporters’ share of the US orange juice market could be under threat from tariff-free Mexican exporters.

On the other hand, if demand for Mexican orange juice soars among US importers as a result of US tariffs making Brazilian orange juice exports more expensive, then a greater percentage of total Mexican orange juice production could be redirected away from the domestic market and into the US. This would reduce Mexico’s domestic supply, which could result in increased prices for domestic orange juice consumers, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Rory Gopsill, Senior Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Avoiding price inflation is likely to be a priority for the Mexican Government as well as domestic orange juice brands and retailers, because Mexican consumers are already under financial pressure.”

According to GlobalData’s Q1 2025 Global Consumer survey, 56 % of Mexican consumers are extremely or quite concerned about their personal financial situation, and 60 % are extremely or quite concerned about the impact of the cost-of-living crisis on their financial situation. Moreover, 47 % of Mexicans are switching to cheaper brand alternatives to deal with rising prices, and 38 % are switching to cheaper retailers. Mexican orange juice brands and the retailers selling them will be wary of increasing prices for these reasons.

However, greater collaboration between Brazil and Mexico could result in controlling the balance of trade between the two countries’ US orange juice exports, and partially avoid the US tariffs.

Annually, the US consumes a greater volume of juice than any other country in the world. In 2024, the US consumed 5.3 billion litres of juice, considerably more than the runner-up, China, which consumed 1.4 billion litres in the same year, according to GlobalData’s Segment Insights Database, accessed May 2025. Figures from the Observatory of Economic Complexity, accessed May 2025, confirmed that the US exported $633 million worth of fruit juice in 2023 and imported $3.44 billion in the same year. As these figures demonstrate, the US is heavily reliant on fruit juice imports to meet domestic demand, especially orange juice, which is the most consumed fruit juice in the US, according to the USDA.

Brazil is the largest exporter of orange juice to the US, sourcing 75 % ($570 million) of the US’ non-frozen/spirited/fermented orange juice in 2023, and 44 % ($203 million) of the US’ frozen non-fermented/spirited orange juice in 2023. For Mexico, these figures were 16 % and 49 % respectively, making it the second largest exporter of orange juice to the US, according to The Observatory of Economic Complexity, accessed May 2025.

A potential solution to the challenges confronting both Brazil’s and Mexico’s orange juice exports to the US could be for Brazil to sell more orange juice to Mexican producers, who could then use it to produce juice blends that are exported to US markets. This is because, according to Fresh Plaza (2025), 60 % of juice blends can originate from third countries and still be USMCA compliant.

A product is more likely to be USMCA compliant if it is manufactured in the US, Mexico, or Canada, and made of materials sourced in these three countries. Mexico devoted more hectares to orange cultivation than any other country (except for India, Brazil, and China) in 2024, according to GlobalData’s Crop Area Production and Yield database. It would make sense for Mexican manufacturers to convert home grown oranges into orange juice for domestic consumption to maximise supply chain and administrative efficiencies.

Gopsill adds: “Brazilian exporters could mitigate losses in their share of the US import market by increasing the volumes of orange juice they sell to Mexican producers. Simultaneously, Mexican producers could use the Brazilian oranges to produce USMCA compliant orange juice and sell it to the US without burning through domestic orange juice supplies and increasing domestic orange juice prices, which would be a positive result for both nations.”

The new crop estimate released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in May indicates that the orange production in the citrus belt in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro and in the southwest of Minas Gerais is likely to total 314.6 million 40.8-kg boxes in 2025/26, a sharp rise of 36.2 % compared to the crop before. This increase brings a relief for the sector, especially because of the current scenario of limited orange juice stocks. By July/25, the volume in stock would be below the level that is considered strategic.

In case processing activities follow the harvesting increase at the same proportion, inventories by July 2026 are likely to be close to a safer volume to supply the global market. As a result, prices paid to producers, which hit records in the crop before (especially in October 2024), may not remain at the same levels. Thus, quotations are likely to continue above the historical average.

Among the aspects that justify the increase of the production estimate are the higher number of producing trees and the improvement of the weather during the cycle. Fundecitrus says that the number of producing trees upped 7.5 % compared to the previous season, changing from 169.9 million to 182.7 million trees.

2025-2026 orange crop forecast

The 2025-2026 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on May 09, 2025, by Fundecitrus in cooperation with full professor at FCAV/Unesp¹, is 314.60 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the variation in production as compared to the previous crop):

• 49.48 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (+ 31.49 %);
• 19.86 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (+ 27.31 %);
• 90.51 million boxes of the Pera variety (+ 21.16 %);
• 114.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Folha Murcha varieties (+ 50.78 %);
• 40.17 million boxes of the Natal variety (+ 49.05 %).

Approximately 26.93 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (+ 80.3 %).

Overall, the projected volume represents a significant increase of 36.27 % compared to the previous crop season, whose final number was 230.87 million boxes, bringing production back into the average range of the last ten years, …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.

Orange prices continue moving down in the domestic market in April (in natura), pressed by the higher supply of early fruits (such as hamlin and westing) and of ponkan tangerine. Moreover, the downward trend is also influenced by decreases at the industry. As for the demand, the mild weather has been limiting the consumption, reinforcing price drops.

From April 28 to May 2, values for pear oranges downed 4.58 %, averaging BRL 93.82 per 40-kg box. In April, pear orange averaged BRL 92.46 per 40-kg box, for a decrease of 1.75 % compared to March.

Industry

Citrus growers and processing companies are waiting for data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) to define values and possible contracts for the 2025/26 crop – the new data will be released next Friday, 9.

In April, the price average of the fruit delivered at the industry was at BRL 51.81 per 40.8-kg box, downing 18 % compared to that verified in the previous month. This week (from April 28 to May 2), the value is at BRL 47.30 per 40.8-kg box, for a decrease of 5.95 % in relation to the week before.

Total orange production¹ for the 2024-2025 crop season ended at 230.87 million boxes

The 2024-2025 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with full professor from FCAV/Unesp², concluded with 230.87 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:

• 7.63 million boxes of Hamlin, Westin e Rubi early-season varieties;
• 15.60 million boxes of Valência Americana, Seleta, Pineapple e Alvorada early-season varieties;
• 74.70 million boxes of Pera Rio mid-season variety;
• 75.99 million boxes of Valência e Valência Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
• 26.95 million boxes of Natal late-season variety.

Of the total, about 14.94 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

This season production was 0.65% below the initial estimate released in May 2024 (232.38 million boxes) and 24.85% below the previous crop season, which totaled 307.22 million boxes, a production level in line with the historical average. The 2024-2025 crop was confirmed as the second smallest in the last 37 years, considered atypical due to adverse weather conditions, marked by dry weather, high temperatures, the extremely late and expressive fourth bloom, along with the incidence of greening …

Please download the complete forecast here.

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Robinsons, the UK’s number one squash brand¹, is unveiling the latest flavour in its Ready-to-Drink range with refreshing and delicious Orange & Mango. Perfect for those on-the-go moments in a 500 ml format, the launch is full of the great taste that shoppers expect from Robinsons, with no added sugar.

Joining the existing Raspberry & Apple and Blackberry & Blueberry variants, Orange & Mango will expand the Robinsons Ready-to-Drink range with another popular flavour choice for shoppers. In fact, 37 % of Robinsons sales are in orange² flavours and it’s worth over £74m RSV in Robinsons dilutes³. The Carlsberg Britvic-owned brand is looking to build on its current success with its latest launch, with the range now worth £22m RSV and continuing to grow⁴.

Ben Parker, VP Sales Off-Trade, Carlsberg Britvic, said: “With our Ready-to-Drink range in growth and showing great promise in the market, we wanted to add to this success and help support retailers with another flavour that consumers already know and love. Orange & Mango is the perfect addition given its popularity and we see it becoming a core part of our growing range as a refreshing and fruity on-the-go option.”

The launch will be supported by the product’s biggest ever above-the-line campaign, with over £1m invested in advertising across the Robinsons Ready-to-Drink portfolio, and product sampling that looks to make the campaign unmissable this summer.

Robinsons Ready-to-Drink Orange & Mango is now available across retail channels in in 500 ml single bottles (RRP £1.79), including Price Mark Packs (PMP) (RRP – £1.15). Visit our At Your Convenience platform to claim your free case of Robinsons Ready-to-Drink Orange & Mango, as well as Point of Sale (POS) to amplify the launch in-store.

¹Nielsen IQ Retail Measurement Service, Value Sales, Total Dilutes, Carlsberg Britvic defined, 52 w/e 22/03/25
²Nielson IQ RMS, GB_Total Coverage, Value Sales, Robinsons Squash, Orange Flavoured Drinks, Carlsberg Britvic Defined, 52 w/e 22/03/25
³Nielson IQ RMS, GB_Total Coverage, Robinsons Squash, Value Sales, Carlsberg Britvic Defined, 52 w/e 22/03/25
⁴Nielsen IQ RMS, RSV, Total Coverage, Total Single Serve Soft Drinks, Robinsons Ready-to-Drink, Carlsberg Britvic Defined, 52 w/e 22/03/25 Vs PY

As processing companies reduced the pace of activities of oranges in early April, part of units was then focused on crushing the tahiti lime. According to players surveyed by Cepea, this scenario helps to flow non-standard fruits to processing activities, reducing the volume in the in natura market.

Due to the higher demand from the industry, quotations were firm. In the first three months of 2025, prices paid by the industry for the tahiti lime averaged BRL 25.06 per 40.8-kg box, 55 % above that in the same period last year and the highest considering the first quarter since 2019 (BRL 29.95/box), in real terms (IGP-DI March/25).

From April 7-10, the price average of the fruit delivered at the industry was at BRL 26.00 per box, upping 13.04 % compared to that verified in the last week of March. This scenario ends up keeping the price level close to BRL 30/box in the in natura market. Tahiti lime prices are at BRL 29.22 per 27.2-kg box between April 7 and 10, downing 2.2 % compared to the week before.

Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released its report of the 2024/25 season on April 10, indicating that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) harvested 230.87 million 40.8-kg boxes, for a decrease of 0.65 % (or 1.51 million boxes) in relation to the first estimate (May/24), but upping 1.03 % (or 2.35 million boxes) compared to that projected in February/25. In relation to the previous crop, the decrease is by 24.85 %.

The upward trend for tahiti lime values, which has been verified since carnaval in Brazil, was interrupted in late March. The price average for the tahiti lime in the last week of March was at BRL 29.60 per 27.2-kg box, for a decrease of 6.15 % compared to that in the week before.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that the decrease is related to the supply of small-sized fruits, which has been higher than expected for the in natura market. This scenario pushes away consumers at supermarkets.

High-quality fruits, in turn, have been mainly allocated to exports. The price average of shipped fruits is at BRL 40.00 per 27.2-kg box in late March, a level that has been observed since the beginning of the month and it is higher than in January (BRL 30.00/box) and in February (BRL 35.00/box).

Data from Comexstat indicate that, in 2024, the income obtained with exports of lemons totaled USD 196.15 million – that verified for mango (USD 350.3 million) continues the highest income among fruits that Brazil exports. It is worth noting that the income registered with exports of lemons in the partial of this year is already higher than that observed in January and February 2024.

Orange market

Due to the fact that early fruits were hitting the market in late March (such as westing, rubi and hamlin), values of in natura oranges dropped in São Paulo state. The price average for pear oranges in the last week of March was at BRL 98.51 per 40.8-kg box, downing 3.15% compared to that in the period before.

The low quality of orange juice and the limited demand due to high price levels have resulted in sharp price drops in the international market in this early 2025. The May/25 contract at ICE Futures dropped 20.6 % in the partial of March and 42.8 % in the accumulated of 2025, at 276.45 cents of dollar per pound on March 12.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that, in early March, the orange sugar/acid ratio was below the desirable for crushing activities. Moreover, the excess of limonin, due to a heterogeneous harvesting, has also been affecting the final product, since it increases the juice bitterness, reducing the acceptance of major consumers, such as the United States and the European Union.

Lower prices at ICE Futures contrast with the current scenario of orange juice stocks. CitrusBR released a report on March 10 indicating that inventories finished 2024 at 351,483 tons (converted to FCOJ), downing 24.2 % compared to 2023 and the lowest amount since the beginning of the series.

As for the domestic market, the low quality at this end-of-season period pressed down values paid by the industry.

Weather

The warm weather and the low volume of rainfall in São Paulo state since mid-February concerned citrus growers in early March. Many of them fear that the weather may affect both orange and tahiti lime in this end of the 2024/25 season and the citrus production in the next crop (2025/26).

Prices of oranges to the industry dropped significantly in late February, due to the low quality of fruits and to international decreases of orange juice quotations. From February 24-27, for instance, the price average was at BRL 74.29 per 40.8-kilo box, downing 6.55 % compared to that in the week before and 16 % in February.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that the orange quality has reduced since the beginning of the year, with lower brix-acid ratio compared to what is desirable for processing activities, and this has been affecting the quality of the orange juice.

This scenario of low quality, in turn, is related to the fact that the 2024/25 had registered several blossoming cycles, resulting in the harvest of distinct stages of fruits (ripe and unripe), which affects the standardisation of oranges sent to processing activities.

Impacts on export

The lower orange supply and the limited quality of the fruits have been limiting orange juice shipments. According to data from Comex Stat, exports of not-from-concentrate (NFC) OJ (NCM 20091200) have presented a lower performance compared to that verified in the season before. In the partial of the 2024/25 crop (from July/24 to January/25), the volume of juice shipped by Brazil totaled 1.09 million tons, 3.4 % smaller than in the same period last season.

Tahiti lime shipments

Brazilian exports of tahiti lime continue moving at a good pace, after reaching a record volume in 2024. In January, Brazil shipped 17.15 thousand tons of tahiti lime, a record for the month and 18.1 % up compared to January/24 – data from Secex. Revenue totaled USD 14.826 million, for an increase of 13.4 % in the same comparison.

The increase of the orange size, especially fruits from the fourth blossoming, and the decrease of the fruit drop rate boosted the new estimate for the 2024/25 output compared to the previous projection.

Data released by Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) in February indicate that the citrus belt (São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro) may harvest 228.52 million 40.8-kg boxes, moving down 1.7 % (or 3.86 million boxes) compared to the first estimate, released in May/24, but upping 2.4 % (or 5.38 million boxes) in relation to the report from December/24.

Besides the good development of the fourth blossoming, Fundecitrus indicates that the rainfall has favored the production.

The higher supply against the previous crop brings a certain relief, but the sector still faces the low quality of the fruits and the low industrial productivity.

This scenario of higher supply and lower quality has been pressing quotations down. For the industry, which has been purchasing fruits at BRL 82.88/box, on average, in the second week of February, the decrease is by 3.63 % against the week before.

Florida

The orange production in Florida has also been facing challenges. The USDA indicated this month that the production in the state is likely to reach 11.5 million boxes, downing 500 thousand boxes compared to the estimate from January and a decrease of 36 % against the crop before.

Orange Juice

Global orange juice production for 2024/25 is forecast up 4 percent to 1.4 million tons (65 degrees brix) as higher production in Brazil and Mexico is expected to offset lower production in the United States. Consumption is down while exports are forecast up due to higher supplies.

Brazil production is forecast up 9 percent to 1.0 million tons as more oranges are available for processing. Exports are up with the higher supplies while stocks are forecast unchanged. Brazil is by far the largest producer and is projected to account for three-quarters of global orange juice exports.

Mexico production is projected to increase 4 percent to 187,000 tons on expected better fruit size and juice content. Consumption is down as more goes to exports which are also up due to the rise in available supplies. The United States is expected to remain the top export market.

U.S. production is forecast down 28 percent to a record low 80,000 tons due to a drop in oranges available for processing, especially in Florida. Yields continue to decline in Florida due to fruit drop caused by citrus greening and weather challenges such as hurricanes and freezes. Consumption is forecast unchanged while imports are up slightly with the lower production. Stocks are expected to be down with the drop in production.

South Africa production is forecast to increase 4 percent to 57,100 tons due to a rise in oranges available for processing. Consumption is forecast to be lower due to high prices while exports are forecast up with the higher production and global demand.

EU production is forecast down 7 percent to 50,000 tons as fruit for processing is down with the expectation that more oranges will be exported. Consumption is up with projected higher imports from Brazil and exports are forecast down with lower production. …

Please download the full report: https://apps.fas.usda.gov

Even with the return of rainfall in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro from October/24 on, the scenario for the 2025/26 season continues uncertain. Flowers that opened after the rains were considered satisfactory, however, the development of the crop still depends on weather conditions during the season.

The 2024/25 crop is estimated at 223.14 million 40.8-kilo boxes of oranges, for a decrease of 27.4 % compared to the previous season (2023/24) – data from Fundecitrus.

Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.

Cepea calculations indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the 2024/25 crop, ending this season technically zero. Thus, a very positive 2025/26 season will be necessary to have at least a slight recovery.

Not even a decrease of exports in the 2024/25 season will be enough to compensate for the reduction in the volume of fruit processed, which will maintain the demand from the industry at high levels.

Moreover, Florida has been registering a decrease in inventories and may need to import more inputs from Brazil, which helps to sustain quotations in the domestic market. Besides this scenario of limited production and stocks in Brazil, data released on December 10 by the USDA indicate that the 2024/25 orange crop may total 12 million 40.8-kg boxes, downing 20 % (or 3 million boxes) compared to the report released in October (15 million boxes). Besides the citrus greening disease, the production drop is also related to the hurricane Milton in Florida in early October 2024.

For 2025, the conditions reported in the Brazilian citrus grove may support prices throughout the year.

All oranges 12.0 million boxes

The 2024-2025 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 12.0 million boxes, unchanged from the December forecast. If realised, this will be 33 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 5.00 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 7.00 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

Orange prices hit records in 2024. Values of the 40.8 kg box were above BRL 100 in the in natura market. Increases are explained by the firm demand from part of the industry (since players have low orange juice stocks) and the restricted orange supply, because of the limited production.

The weather in the citrus belt was predominantly dry and with high temperatures during the development of the crop. Although prices allowed good profits to citrus growers, the low productivity boosted costs (which had already been high due to the citrus greening disease). Margins may be reduced in areas where the production dropped significantly, despite record prices of the fruit. As for the tahiti lime, quotations were at low levels in the first semester and increased in the second part of the year, because of the offseason period, which is a typical movement.

As a result, due to the limited orange supply and the high demand from the industry, values operated at record levels, in real terms (prices were deflated by the IGP-DI). In October, the price average paid by the industry surpassed BRL 90 per 40.8 kg box. It is worth noting that 2023/24 trades started early, in January, with quotations at around BRL 38 per box. Since inventories at the industry had been limited, the demand in the spot market increased, and prices hit records in real terms, surpassing BRL 100/box in November.

São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro are likely to harvest 223.14 million 40.8 kilo boxes of oranges in the 2024/25 season, for an increase of 7.36 million boxes (or + 3.4 %) compared to the last projection, released in September, but still 9.24 million boxes less (or – 4 %) in relation to the first estimate (May 2024). Therefore, the current season may be 27.4 % smaller than the previous (2023/24), when 307.22 million boxes were harvested – data from Fundecitrus.

The smaller production was already expected in 2024/25, due to unfavourable weather conditions and to the citrus greening disease.

The current scenario is: very limited orange juice stocks in Brazil. Thus, in order to guarantee the global OJ supply, the next production (2025/26) would need to increase in both Brazil and Florida.

As for the agreement between Mercosur and the European Union, it can favour shipments of lime, lemon and orange juice, but can also open a direct channel to receive these fruits from Spain. Still, the agreement is very important and brings good perspectives for the mid and long-terms.

• The festive period is the most popular time for couples to conceive according to the Office for National Statistics¹
• As the seasonal baby boom begins, nine out of ten women will have marginal or low levels of folate – a vital nutrient which protects the foetus²
• According to the NHS, expectant mothers can need up to 10 times more folate during pregnancy than the average adult to help their baby develop normally³
• Dietitian, Dr Frankie Phillips, shares three simple but effective dietary tips for expectant mothers to boost their folate levels

Research by the University of Southampton has highlighted a concerning trend: nine out of ten women will have marginal or low levels of folate and other vital nutrients around the time of conception.²

Folate, also known as vitamin B9, can be found in a range of food and drinks and is essential during pregnancy to prevent neural tube defects, like spina bifida. The average adult needs 200 micrograms of folate a day, but pregnant women need at least double this dose due to the demands of pregnancy. According to the NHS, some expectant mothers can even require up to 10 times the average adult recommendation.³

This common deficiency can extend into late pregnancy, potentially impacting the health of both mother and child. According to healthcare professionals, symptoms of a folate deficiency can include fatigue, pins and needles, mouth ulcers, and a sore red tongue.²

A developing baby needs folate to make healthy new cells, and to make genetic materials (DNA and RNA). Deficiency in the early stages of pregnancy can harm the neural tube which protects the spinal cord – affecting more than 1000 pregnancies a year in the UK. More generally, the health benefits of folate include encouraging the production of red blood cells in bone marrow, which is vital during periods of growth and development such as pregnancy, infancy and adolescence.

As the winter months herald the season of festive celebrations, they also mark the beginning of the most popular time of year for conception, evidenced by September’s leading birth rates.1 Dr Frankie Phillips, a registered dietitian with over 20 years’ experience, highlights the importance of optimal nutrition during family planning and pregnancy.

Dr Frankie Phillips comments: “Folate is needed for many important processes in the body, including helping form healthy red blood cell and contributing to the reduction of tiredness and fatigue.A 150ml glass of 100 % orange juice is a recognised source of folate and a convenient, affordable way to help achieve daily nutrient requirements.”

For women who think they may be suffering with low folate levels, Dr Phillips recommends a few simple but effective ways to incorporate more folate into your diet.

Three steps to incorporate folate-rich food and drinks into your diet:

• Drink a daily glass of 100% Orange Juice: Whether you buy a bottle from the shop or crank up the juicer at home, pure orange juice is a great source of folate and provides essential minerals like potassium, magnesium, and iron, according to a new Spanish study.⁴ Just one glass of orange juice a day is a recognised source of folate.
• Include Leafy Greens: Incorporate folate-rich leafy greens such as spinach, kale, and broccoli into your diet to support foetal development and overall health. Try adding a handful of spinach to stews or curries and stir-frying broccoli stems with lean beef and soy sauce.
• Add Legumes to Meals: Include peas, lentils, chickpeas, and beans in your diet, as they are excellent sources of folate. For example, just one cup of cooked lentils contains 90 % of the daily recommendation. Legumes are also rich in protein, fibre and antioxidants.⁵

Researchers, Dr Montana Camara and Dr Laura Dominguez, who recently published a study on the vitamin and mineral content of orange juice, noted: ” Folate is an essential mineral supporting foetal development by helping to release energy from the mother’s diet, and promoting normal development of the nervous system, especially during conception and pregnancy.”

Their study found that packaged fruit juices were a good source of folate, potassium and vitamin C.

¹https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/livebirths/bulletins/birthcharacteristicsinenglandandwales/2022
²https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2023/12/pregnant-women-missing-vital-nutrients-needed-for-them-and-their-babies.page
³https://www.nhs.uk/medicines/folic-acid/common-questions-about-folic-acid/ ; https://www.nhs.uk/pregnancy/keeping-well/vitamins-supplements-and-nutrition/#:~:text=But%20when%20you’re%20pregnant,you’re%2012%20weeks%20pregnant
⁴Cámara, M., Domínguez, L., Medina, S.; Mena, P., García-Viguera,C. A Comparative Analysis of Folate and Mineral Contents in Freshly Squeezed and Commercial 100% Orange Juices Available in Europe.Nutrients 2024, 16, 3605. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu1621360
⁵https://fdc.nal.usda.gov/food-search?query=&type=Foundation

The possibility of a small orange supply was reinforced due to the decrease of the number of companies operating in São Paulo state in late November. In the last two crops, when the supply was already below the normal standard, major processing companies started to reduce the pace of activities only between January and February.

In January 2024, only six plants were operating, against tem in the same period last year. At the end of November, there were seven units in activity. Players surveyed by Cepea say that there might still be a certain volume of raw material for the industry to continue processing up to February 2025, but March is still uncertain.

To make matters worse, the low supply is being verified together with low quality. According to players surveyed by Cepea, the brix-acid ratio is unsatisfactory, concerning both producers and players from the industry, since it affects the efficiency of processing activities and the quality of the final product.

The lower juice yield is especially linked to the scarcity of rains during the development of the fruits, which reduced the amount of juice in the fruit. As a result, more oranges are necessary to produce the same amount of juice.

Although it is the offseason period for the tahiti lime, quotations decreased in early November. The downward trend is related to both the size and the quality of the fruit, which are below expected by the sector. However, it is worth noting that price levels are still high.

According to data from Cepea, tahiti lime prices averaged BRL 95.59 per 27.2-kg box in mid-November, downing 16.17 % against late October.

It is worth noting that the price average for the tahiti lime was at BRL 117.94/box last month, 72.2 % more than in September and moving up 71 % against October last year, in nominal terms.

Season in Florida

The 2023/24 orange season finished in September in Florida. The Citrus Department of that state in the Unites States indicated in October that local juice stocks, as observed in Brazil, finished the season at low levels.

The limited orange supply has been frequent in the US, considering that the country has become majorly an orange juice importer since the advance of greening in Florida.

It is worth noting that Brazil is the major orange juice supplier for the US market. The fact that the Brazilian industry faced both low supply and high prices in the 2023/24 season (which limited exports) might have prevented a recovery of stocks in Florida.

Regular rains and mild weather were registered in late October in the citrus belt of São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro, the biggest orange producer for the juice industry. This scenario has helped to bring a relief for trees that were affected by the lack of rains and high temperatures.

2024/25 season

Even with the return of rainfall, the current orange crop has presented low quality. Still, rains in October may improve the quality of fruits that are still on the trees. It is worth noting that the orange crop has started in June this year and may finish between December and January/25. As for tahiti lime (the main season starts between November and December), weather conditions may favor the development, since fruits are currently below the standard.

Exports

The revenue obtained by Brazilian exporters with orange juice shipments in the partial of the 2024/25 crop (from July/24 to September/24) totaled USD 905.3 million, for an increase of 42.3 % compared to the same period of the last season (USD 636.1 million), according to Comex Stat.

The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil, in turn, continues decreasing, as it has been verified since the 2023/24 crop. From July to September/24, Brazil shipped 207.5 thousand tons of orange juice, downing 27 % in relation to the same period in 2023.

The lower volume exported is linked to the limited supply. Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.

High temperatures in São Paulo state in early October reinforced producers’ concerns, since this scenario can affect both fruits that are on the trees (from the current season, 2023/24) and the production of the next crop (2024/25), especially non-irrigated areas. Therefore, in mid-October, citrus growers were waiting for the rainfall in major producing regions.

So far, the biggest challenge for the current season (2023/24) has been the fact that fruits have wilted, which affects directly the quality, according to players surveyed by Cepea. In normal conditions, this quality loss would press quotations down; however, due to the limited supply this season, prices remain firm.

As for the 2024/25 crop, scenarios are distinct between irrigated and non-irrigated areas. In irrigated regions in São Paulo state, the fruit development is more advanced, but producers were still concerned with high temperatures.

On the other hand, most trees in non-irrigated areas have not blossomed yet. Thus, the return of rains is essential to mitigate the lack of soil humidity and encourage the blossoming.

The 2024/25 orange crushing was moving at a good pace at juice processing companies in São Paulo state at the end of September. According to players, the pear orange has been the most processed variety; however, the harvesting pace has been progressing, and the participation of late fruits (such as valencia and natal) has been increasing.

The harvesting is more advanced due to the higher share of fruits from the first blossoming. Data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicate that 64 % of oranges produced in this season account for the first blossoming, higher than the last four crops (36 % of the fruits, at most). Thus, the crushing pace is likely to reduce earlier this year – the second blossoming considers fruits that will be harvested from October on, according to Fundecitrus.

In addition to that, greening (HLB – Huanglongbing), above-average temperatures and the dry weather also accelerate the harvesting. As for greening, one of the symptoms of the disease is the early fruit drop, and producers may harvest in advance to avoid losses. Weather conditions, in turn, accelerate the ripening and may result in early fruit drop.

The share of late fruits in processing activities is likely to be higher in October, but the amount of pear oranges allocated to juice production can still be relevant.

Stocks

Cepea calculations, based on data released by CitrusBR on Sept. 19, indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the current crop (2024/25), ending this season technically zero. Not even the forecast of improvement in industrial yield (due to below-average rainfall) and limited exports will be enough to compensate for the decrease in the volume of fruit processed.

According to CitrusBR, the stocked quantity of the commodity was 116.7 thousand tons at the end of 2023/24 crop (on June 30, 2024), being 37.7 % higher than that on the same period last year, but the third lowest in history (the series has started in 1988/89).

Most part of São Paulo state registered high temperatures in early September. This scenario brought concerns for citrus growers, who may face another year of significant heat waves.

Climatempo says that heat waves in September have become more common in most part of Brazil; however, they have been more intense and are lasting longer.

2024/25 CROP – São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro may harvest 215.78 million 40.8-kg boxes in the 2024/25 orange season, according to data released by Fundecitrus on September 10. The volume may be 30 % less than in the crop before, which registered average production, and below the first projection, of 232.38 million boxes.

The decrease is related to the smaller fruit size, due to the dry and warm weather. The weather also accelerated the harvesting pace, since it influenced the ripening. More than half of the crop can be harvested in this dry weather scenario because rains are forecast only for late September.

The volume of rainfall was small in almost all areas in the citrus belt, except in the southwestern region of São Paulo. Fundecitrus indicates that the only area where the production is expected to increase in this season is the southwest of SP – the harvest may be 19 % higher than in 2023/24. In other regions, the production decrease can be between 28 % and 60 %.

Total orange production¹ is updated at 215.78 million boxes

The first update of the 2024-2025 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp², is 215.78 million boxes of 40.8 kg. Of the total, 200.46 million boxes come from the first three blooms, while 15.32 million boxes belong to the fourth bloom. Compared to the initial estimate in May, the projection shows a reduction of 16.60 million boxes, which corresponds to a 7.1 % decrease. Analyzing by maturity group, the early-season varieties decrease by approximately 3 %, the mid-season (Pera) by 11 %, and the late-season varieties by 7 %. Compared to the previous crop (307.22 million boxes), the current projection represents a 29.8 % drop, with early-season varieties down by roughly 33 %, mid-season (Pera) by 35 %, and late-season varieties by 24 %. It is also estimated that approximately 14.34 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region. …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
²Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

Recent wildfires in several areas in São Paulo state concerned players. According to data gathered by Cepea, wildfires hit some citrus areas, especially the central-north of the state; however, this scenario may not bring significant impacts on the volume of fruits available in the market.

According to players surveyed by Cepea, the areas hit by wildfires are small and the landowners were able to control them rapidly. The rainfall in some areas also helped to control the problem. Damages were more significant for other crops, especially sugarcane.

Market

Prices for the pear orange have been at historical levels this year both in the in natura market and in the industrial segment. The limited supply of the current season and the firm demand from the industry explain this scenario. The price average was at BRL 100.00 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, at the end of August.

However, the cold wave in São Paulo state in late August led consumers to be away from trades in the orange market. This scenario was reinforced by the end-of-the month period. On the other hand, the limited supply and high prices of industrial contracts continued to sustain quotations in the in natura market.

The 2024/25 crop-year for orange juice exports (from July/24 to June/25) has started in July and shipments, which had been moving down in 2023/24, continued to move at a slow pace. This scenario was already expected, since the supply is limited in Brazil, due to the confirmation of a smaller orange production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro. At the same time, Brazilian imports of in natura orange and tangerine rose in July.

Orange juice exports

According to Comex Stat, Brazil shipped 53.4 thousand tons of orange juice in July, downing 38 % compared to the same month in 2023. The limited supply boosted quotations. As a result, the revenue totaled USD 198.9 million in July/24, for an increase of 9 % in relation to July/23.

NFC orange juice shipments amounted 164.2 thousand tons in July/24, and the revenue totaled USD 96.45 million, upping 3 % and 55 % against July/23. As for FCOJ exports, the total was 23.6 thousand tons (-59 %), and the revenue was USD 102.4 million (-15 % in one year).

In natura citrus fruits imports

In natura orange imports are at record volumes this year, boosted by the low domestic supply and high prices of national fruits. According to data from Comex Stat, from January to July, 34.8 thousand tons were imported, 87 % up in relation to the same period last year. Expenses amounted USD 24.7 million, 72 % more this year against the previous.

As for tangerines, the volume purchased by Brazil in the partial of 2024 totaled 14.5 thousand tons, 96 % more than in the period from January to July last year. Expenses are at USD 15.65 million (+89 %).

Domestic market

Quotations of citrus fruits surveyed by Cepea may continue to increase in August, sustained by expectations of a limited supply for all varieties. This scenario can be verified despite the orange season peak.

The orange harvesting is moving at a good pace in the citrus belt, but most part of the produce has been allocated to the juice industry. Factories continue with high prices to purchase the raw material, leading many producers that typically operate in the in natura market to allocate oranges for processing activities. Therefore, not even the low demand, due to mild temperatures, was able to press down quotations.

Data released by the USDA in late July reinforced the scenario of limited world supply for the 2023/24 orange season (or 2024/25 in the Southern Hemisphere). Despite the slight increase in the production estimate compared to the crop before, the total volume may continue at historical low levels. Moreover, the decrease in Brazil, major global producer of both orange and juice, may not be counterbalanced by other suppliers.

The USDA indicates that the 2023/24 world crop is projected at 47.4 million tons, upping 1 % compared to the season before. In Brazil, the output may decrease 1.2 %, to 15.3 million tons – equivalent to 375 million 40.8-kg boxes. However, the decrease indicated by the USDA might be underestimated. In São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro, the production is likely to drop 24.4 %, according to Fundecitrus, and there are doubts whether a possible increase in other states would compensate the low volume produced in the citrus belt.

Orange juice

In spite of the slight rise in the global orange production, the orange juice output is projected at 1.5 million tons, 3 % down against the season before. The decrease is related to the lower availability of fruits to process in Brazil, which represents more than 70 % of the global OJ production.

The Brazilian output is calculated at 1.1 million tons, downing 9 %, and national exports are likely to decrease in the same intensity, since almost 100 % of the Brazilian production is sent to the international market.

Tahiti lime

The global production of lemons and limes in 2023/24 is estimated to move up 2 %, reaching 10.1 million tons, boosted by the higher output in the European Union and in Turkey.

It is worth noting that these numbers consider lemons (Sicilian, for instance) and limes (such as the tahiti lime). Among major producing countries, only Mexico produces significant volumes of tahiti lime (which is produced and exported by Brazil). Mexican shipments are likely to reduce 7.5 %, which can keep the focus of this country on supplying the US, opening more room for the Brazilian tahiti lime in the European market – Brazil has been hitting records in exports year after year.

Due to the presence of greening (Huanglongbing) in São Paulo and to the recent imbalance between supply and demand for oranges, both producers and processors have been looking for options to increase the planted area in regions outside the citrus belt, without the phytosanitary risks in SP. There have been reports of new plantings in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais (out of Triângulo Mineiro) and Goiás, areas that are not typical citrus producers.

Investments are indeed not recommended depending on the region of São Paulo state, although major processing units are located there. Many areas have high incidence of greening, which hinders new plantings. According to data from Fundecitrus, 38 % of the trees in the citrus belt had symptoms of the disease in 2023, the sixth year in a row of greening increase. It is worth noting that new plants tend to be more vulnerable to the disease, increasing costs with prevention and chances of infection.

Therefore, plantings outside SP are an option. The land availability is higher, reducing costs, and there is the absence of greening and other diseases. Moreover, the industrial productivity can be higher than in SP, due to the warmer weather, which is positive for processing companies.

On the other hand, the fact that the areas are unknown for the citrus activity concerns players, since this scenario would demand adjustments in management and irrigation, which cannot be necessarily the same as those verified in SP.

Although these regions are warmer than SP (which can favor the productivity), it tends to affect the development of the trees. Additionally, costs with freight can be higher because of logistical issues.

It is worth noting that these investments in other regions are new and, therefore, they may not affect the orange supply in the short-term – it can be verified in roughly three years, when plants start producing.

Market

The supply of citrus fruits in the in natura market in São Paulo may be low in July. As for oranges, the lower availability has been verified since the middle of last year and it is also attributed to the high demand from the industry – it is worth noting that juice stocks at processing companies may finish the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) at low levels.

Players surveyed by Cepea say that even producers who typically sell to the in natura market are focusing on sending the product to the industry this season, since prices are more attractive and there are some advantages compared to the in natura market.

The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to May/24) remains below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 914.9 thousand tons of orange juice, for a decrease of 8.9 % compared to the same period last season.

The revenue, in turn, totaled USD 2.47 billion, moving up 22 % this season in relation to the previous. The main reason for the increase in revenue was the higher price paid per ton of juice, which rose due to the low availability of the commodity in Brazil, according to agents consulted by Cepea.

OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 489.79 thousand tons from July/23 to May/24, downing 8.2 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 27 %, at USD 1.35 billion. To the US, exports dropped 11 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 293.64 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and May/24 was USD 737 million, 9 % up against the same period last season.

Domestic market

Prices of oranges allocated to processing activities have been moving up since March, when contracts involving the 2024/25 season have started to be closed. In early June, values of the fruit traded in the spot market in São Paulo state hit BRL 85.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, a new record of Cepea series, which started in 1994, in real terms (averages were deflated by the IGP-DI).

Price rises are related to both the higher demand and the limited supply. As for the demand, the industry needs to purchase the raw material, because orange juice stocks are very low. Concerning the supply, the fruit output may be small again in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro.

Orange peels may hold a key to better cardiovascular health, new University of Florida-led research shows.

Heart disease is the leading cause of death for men, women and people of most racial and ethnic groups, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Recent research has shown that some gut bacteria help develop cardiovascular disease. When they feed on certain nutrients during digestion, gut bacteria produce trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO). Levels of TMAO can help predict future cardiovascular disease, according to researchers at the Cleveland Clinic.

With help from a $500,000 USDA grant, Yu Wang and her team investigated the potential of orange peel extracts – rich in beneficial phytochemicals – to reduce TMAO and trimethylamine (TMA) production. Scientists tested two types of extracts: a polar fraction and a non-polar fraction.

To get the polar fractions, scientists used polar and non-polar solvents to extract the orange peel, Wang said.

“If you imagine your salad dressing, anything in the water or vinegar part are the polar fraction; anything in the oil away from water is the non-polar fraction,” Wang said. “The solvents we used were not exactly like water and oil, but they possess similar polarity.”

Results from the study showed that the orange peel non-polar fraction extract effectively inhibited the production of harmful chemicals. Researchers also identified a compound called feruloylputrescine in the orange peel polar fraction extract that also significantly inhibits the enzyme responsible for TMA production.

“This is a novel finding that highlights the previously unrecognised health potential of feruloylputrescine in reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease,” said Wang, a UF/IFAS associate professor of food science and human nutrition.

The orange peel finding is significant because 5 million tons of orange peels are produced each year in orange juice production nationwide. Nearly 95 % of Florida oranges are used for juice. About half of the peels go to feed cattle. The rest goes to waste.

But the Food and Drug Administration considers natural orange peel extracts safe for human consumption. So, Wang hope to put the peels to better use.

“These findings suggest that orange peels, often discarded as waste in the citrus industry, can be repurposed into valuable health-promoting ingredients, such as diet supplements or food ingredients,” said Wang, a faculty member at the UF/IFAS Citrus Research and Education Center. “Our research paves the way for developing functional foods enriched with these bioactive compounds, providing new therapeutic strategies for heart health.”

About UF/IFAS
The mission of the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (UF/IFAS) is to develop knowledge relevant to agricultural, human and natural resources and to make that knowledge available to sustain and enhance the quality of human life. With more than a dozen research facilities, 67 county Extension offices, and award-winning students and faculty in the UF College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, UF/IFAS brings science-based solutions to the state’s agricultural and natural resources industries, and all Florida residents.

The 2024-2025 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors at FEA-RP/USP¹ and FCAV/Unesp², is 232.38 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the drop in production as compared to the previous crop):

• 37.12 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (- 36.10 %);
• 15.72 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (- 15.07 %);
• 70.97 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety (- 27.30 %);
• 81.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties (- 22.45 %);
• 26.99 million boxes of the Natal variety (- 2.91 %).

Approximately 14.61 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (- 47.48 %).

Overall, the projected volume represents a significant drop of 24.36 % as compared to the previous crop that totaled 307.22 million boxes, a value close to the average for the last decade …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Marcos Fava Neves, Part-time Full Professor at FEA-RP/USP.
²José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.

The orange processing of the 2024/25 season may be intensified in May. Three of the major processors and other two small companies (tool) have been operating at the moment. At least three more units are expected to start activities still in early May.

In the same period of 2023, only three units were operating, and a fourth company started crushing in the second week of the month. This scenario indicates a higher intensity of processing activities this year. Although current volumes are not high yet, players from the industry say that some companies have started operating in order to avoid fruit losses in a year of low supply.

Prices at companies remain firm, reaching BRL 70.00 per box for fruits of the new season. In cases of higher volumes, values can be even higher.

Due to the increase of industrial activities, the downward trend of orange prices in the in natura market, verified in April, is likely to slow down, since producers will have the industry as an option to sell the product. In April, the average for the in natura pear orange, of BRL 91.28 per 40.8-kilo box, in tree, was 3 % lower than in March.

The demand for oranges, in turn, is expected to decrease in May, because of the supply of ponkan tangerine. Moreover, possible milder temperatures in the Brazilian autumn tend to reduce the consumption.

Tahiti lime

The rainfall favoured the development of the tahiti lime in São Paulo state, increasing the supply.

Total orange production for the 2023-2024 crop season ended at 307.22 million boxes¹

The 2023-2024 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA- RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp² – concluded with 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:

• 58.09 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
• 18.51 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties;
• 97.62 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
• 105.20 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
• 27.80 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.

Of the total, about 27.82 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.

The season´s production was 2.22% lower in comparison to the previous crop, which reached 314.21 million boxes and was 0.69% below the initial forecast made in May 2023 …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

All oranges 18.8 million boxes

The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 18.8 million boxes. If realised, this will be 19 percent more than last season’s revised production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 12.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to March/24) was below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to players from the industry, the low availability of the commodity in the Brazilian market may be limiting shipments. As for prices of the juice sold to the international market, they moved up.

The 2023/24 season in Brazil is expected to finish (in June/24) with reduced orange juice stocks at the industry. As a result, some players are unwilling to export large amounts in order to avoid having zero stocks by the end of 2023/24.

According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 812.2 thousand tons of orange juice in the partial of 2023/24, for a decrease of 7.7 % compared to the same period last season. The revenue totaled USD 2.08 billion, moving up 23 % this season in relation to the previous and close to the total registered in the crop before (USD 2.14 billion up to June/23).

OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 419.9 thousand tons from July/23 to March/24, downing 7.7 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 26 %, at USD 1.1 billion. To the US, exports dropped 4.4 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 265.7 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and March/24 was USD 667.1 million, 18 % up against the same period last season.

Market in Brazil

The market of the tahiti lime in São Paulo closed March with firm prices. Players surveyed by Cepea say that this is related to the low supply, since rains affected the harvest. As a result, the monthly price average was BRL 31.17 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 55 % up in relation to February.

As for the orange, prices also closed March at higher levels. The supply was low (due to the offseason period and to the good demand from the industry) and the demand in the in natura market was firm, because of high temperatures. Therefore, the price average was BRL 93.56 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, upping 7 % in relation to February.

Brazilian orange juice processors finished 2023 with low stocks. A report released by CitrusBR in March indicates that the volume was 463.94 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice) on December 31, 2023, being 6.7 % higher than that on the same day last year, but the second lowest in history (the series has started in 2011).

Considering that the industry is practically in the offseason period, and, therefore, they have been using stocks to supply the international market, the stocked volume is likely to decrease month after month. This scenario brings concerns about the global supply, since Brazil is the biggest world exporter, and, although there are no forecasts for the next crop (2024/25) yet, the orange production may not increase compared to the current season.

CitrusBR has not projected the ending stocks for the orange juice industry this season. However, data from Cepea indicate that stocks may finish the season higher than in the previous, especially because of the decrease in exports.

Taking 2023/24 initial stocks, of 84.75 thousand tons (CitrusBR), processing of 267 million boxes (discounting the 40 million boxes of the in natura market of the total volume projected by Fundecitrus), the same juice yield of the previous crop and the 6 % decrease of exports (from July/23 to February/24), the amount in stocks by the end of the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) would be only 94.5 thousand tons, 11 % more than in the same period last year.

In spite of the projection of an increase compared to the last season, it is worth noting that 2022/23 ending stocks were the lowest in recent history.

Production

The rainfall in orange producing areas in São Paulo state has been favoring the 2024/25 season. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the good humidity has been positive for the fruits, allowing to anticipate the harvest of early varieties, which have started to be offered in the in natura market in February and may be intensified in March.

A survey carried out by independent audits firms with each of CitrusBR members, and subsequently consolidated confidentially by an external audit, found that the global inventories of Brazilian orange juice, converted into FCOJ Equivalent, held by CitrusBR members on December 31st, 2023 were 463,940.92 tons. Although representing an increase of 6.7 % in comparison to the 434,943 tonnes from the previous season, this number is the second lowest figure in the historical series. The disclosure of final processing data and industrial yield on fruit will be done by CitrusBR later in 2024.

Please download the market information under www.citrusbr.com

Pear orange prices in the in natura market hit a new record in February, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 – values were deflated by IGP-DI December/23. Quotations are likely to continue at high levels in March, since the volume of early varieties in the spot market in São Paulo is still small.

In February, pear orange prices averaged BRL 87.40 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 9.29 % up compared to January/24 and an increase of 83 % in relation to February/23 (in this case, in nominal terms). Price rises are linked to the lower supply in this offseason period, while the supply of late and early varieties is also limited. It is worth noting that the firm industrial demand reduced even more the fruit availability in the domestic market during the entire season.

TAHITI LIME – Prices have started February in a downward trend; however, they rose during the month, leading to an increase of the monthly average. Although it is the peak season, frequent rains limited the harvest and, consequently, the supply. Moreover, weather conditions have been favoring the fruit quality.

In this scenario, the tahiti lime price average in the in natura market was BRL 20.11 per 27-kg box (harvested) in February, moving up 46.36 % and 104 % in relation to January/24 and February/23, respectively, in nominal terms.

Values are likely to remain firm in March because of the lower volume that will be harvested. Moreover, exports may increase, especially due to the proximity of Easter, which can influence to flow the product.

Total forecast production of oranges¹ remains at 307.22 million boxes

The third forecast for the 2023/24 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 09, 2024 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp², maintains the projection of 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, unchanged in total volume from the previous forecast. This represents a reduction of 0.7 % when compared to the initial forecast for the season. Of the total estimated production, approximately 27.76 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

¹Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
²Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.

All Oranges 19.8 Million Boxes

The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 19.8 million boxes, down 700,000 boxes from the January forecast. If realised, this will be 25 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, …

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

Pear orange prices have been moving up since the beginning of the 2023/24 season in the in natura market. In January, values hit the record of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. In the first month of 2024, the price average was BRL 78.89 per 40.8-kilo box, moving up 16% compared to December/23 and 90% in relation to January/23, in real terms (values were deflated by IGP-DI Dec/23). Up until January/24, the highest value in real terms had been BRL 74.92/box, in November 1994.

This scenario of high prices is related to the limited supply. The production in the current crop is on average; however, low orange juice stocks increase the need to buy the raw material, reducing the orange supply in the in natura market.

As for the demand, players surveyed by Cepea say that it is firm, since temperatures are high, favoring the consumption of the fruit.

The pear orange supply is expected to continue limited in February, which is still considered offseason.

Industry

Prices for pear orange and late varieties for the industry had hit a real record in November. Since then, they have been renewing the record level of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. However, values are now moving down, considering the closing of new trades.

The price average for pear orange and late varieties for the industry was BRL 57.68 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, in January, increasing 10% against the month before and 76% in relation to January 2023, in real terms.

Tahiti lime

Prices finished January at low levels, due to the peak season. The price average in January 2024 was BRL 13.56 per 27-kg box (harvested), for a decrease of 28% compared to the last month of 2023.

The tahiti lime supply is expected to continue high in February, due to rains in January, which can favor both the fruit development and the quality.

Contrary to concerns – oft repeated on social media – that the manufacturing process destroys the nutritional value of shop bought 100 % orange juice, researchers from leading universities in Spain and Italy have found levels of polyphenols – valuable bioactive compounds linked to health – are similar in home-squeezed and shop-bought juice.

The study, published in the International Journal of Food Sciences and Nutrition*, compared the most popular shop bought orange juices in the UK, Germany, France and Spain against freshly squeezed ‘Navelina’ oranges. It found that while home squeezed juice contains more vitamin C than shop-bought equivalents, this degrades significantly over time and is expected to reach shop bought juice levels after a week.

The study also established that shop bought orange juice contains 94 % of European recommendations for daily vitamin C intakes – set at 90 mg for men and 80 mg for women – meaning only a minor impact on consumers from a nutritional standpoint.

Vitamin C, found in fruits and vegetables, is essential for human health since it can’t be synthesised by the body and is involved in many biochemical functions including immunity, neutralising free radicals, iron absorption, bone formation and synthesis of collagen. Low intakes can be noticed as poor wound healing and gum inflammation.

Lead scientist in the study, Dr Cristina Viguera from the Department of Food Science and Technology at CEBAS-CSIC, said: “Our research indicates that there’s limited nutritional advantage to spending time home squeezing oranges when you can obtain similar levels of polyphenols and most of the vitamin C you need from a good quality shop bought version.

“We also found that shop bought orange juices preserve their bioactive compounds during storage and the brand, country or manufacturing process made little difference to the polyphenols or vitamin C. Overall, orange juice is still a rich source of vitamin C whether it’s freshly squeezed or purchased”.

*Salar et al. (2024) Comparison of vitamin C and flavanones between freshly squeezed orange juices and commercial 100 % orange juices from four European countries. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38230429/.

In 2024, orange prices paid to citrus growers in São Paulo/Triângulo Mineiro may remain at high levels. The supply may continue to be lower than the industrial demand, keeping the availability limited in the in natura market.

So far, there are no solid aspects that allow to project the volume that will be harvested in the 2024/25 season; however, the orange juice supply may not be enough to meet the demand, especially because of the expectation of low juice stocks in June 2024.

CitrusBR says that the volume in stocks by the end of the 2022/23 season (in June/23) was only 84.745 thousand tons equivalent to concentrate juice. Cepea calculations based on the orange production forecast by Fundecitrus indicate that the volume in stocks by the end of the current season (2023/24, in June/24) may not be higher. This scenario may be reinforced in case exports continue intense and the productivity remains below-average.

Therefore, it would be important if the orange volume harvested in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro is above the average over the last years in order for the processed volume to meet exports and allow a recovery in stocks by June 2025. However, challenges faced in the second semester of 2023 (greening and heat waves) may bring difficulties for a good harvest in 2024/25.

It is worth noting that Brazil does not have major competitors regarding the global orange juice supply. Mexico, an important supplier for the US market, has been facing difficulties in the production, especially because of the dry weather, while Florida has been facing the impacts of greening. In this scenario, a decrease in the Brazilian availability might affect the world orange juice supply.

Investments

Although the profitability scenario had been positive in 2023, major investments in São Paulo are not expected for 2024, due to the high incidence of greening. The planting can continue firm in Triângulo Mineiro, but the availability of soil and water for irrigation are limited.

2023 was a very positive year for the citrus activity in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro concerning prices received by citrus farmers. Orange values were at firm levels during the year in both the in natura market and at the industry – in this segment, quotations hit record levels in real terms, allowing a year of good profitability.

This scenario is explained by the lower supply compared to the demand, despite the fact that the 2023/24 production is on average. Orange juice stocks started the season at low levels, and there was the need to purchase the raw material in order to prevent a significant decrease of stocks at the end of the current season. Moreover, the orange juice demand is firm in the international market, especially from the US, country that has been registering limited production for years due to greening (HLB) impacts.

In November, prices of orange to the industry hit real records, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 (monthly values were deflated by IGP-DI October/23).

Orange production

The 2023/24 orange season in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro may decrease 2.2 % compared to the previous, according to Fundecitrus. The total volume is forecast at 307.22 million boxes, 0.7 % smaller in relation to the first estimate, released in May.

The decrease is related to above-average rains, which increased the incidence of blossom-end rot, to the negative biennial cycle (except in the north), the lower volume of flowers verified in some late variety trees and to the intensity of greening.

It is important to mention that this volume is below the need of the industry to meet the international demand and increase juice stocks, which are very low. According to CitrusBR, the volume in stocks hit the lowest level in 12 years, totaling only 84.745 thousand tons of volume equivalent to concentrate juice by the end of the 2022/23 season (June/23), downing 40.7 % compared to the previous crop. These critical numbers arise serious concerns about the global orange juice supply.

Tropicana introduces “Tropcn”, a new limited-edition packaging – now with the letters “AI” removed from their name – to celebrate the leading orange juice brand’s¹ natural ingredients, highlighting the fact that there is nothing artificial, and never has been anything artificial, in Tropicana Pure Premium orange juice. America’s favourite OJ² has been made from natural oranges, picked at the pinnacle of ripeness, and squeezed within 24 hours to create 100 % juice for more than 75 years.

Each week, there seems to be a new development in artificial intelligence. Each new AI advancement seemingly brings us closer to the artificial world and further from the natural. Consumer intrigue, and even concern, is high. In fact, searches for “What is AI?” increased by 643 % from 2022 to 2023³. So, to celebrate the natural ingredients and nothing artificial in Tropicana Pure Premium orange juice, Tropicana is heading to the biggest consumer electronics event, CES 2024 (January 9-11), to release a limited-edition package of “Tropcn” Pure Premium orange juice.

“Our limited-edition run of ‘Tropcn’ orange juice bottles represents our ongoing commitment to delivering the highest quality 100 % orange juice to Americans,” said Monica McGurk, CEO of Tropicana Brands Group’s North American business unit. “Since 1954, Tropicana has been at the forefront, innovating ways to bring fresh-tasting orange juice from natural oranges to breakfast tables nationwide. Artificial just isn’t in our DNA.”

Not attending CES 2024 in Las Vegas? Tropicana has hidden bottles of “Tropcn” across participating Kroger Family of Stores in the US. If you find a bottle in the wild, scan the code and enter for a chance to win a trip to the original orange juice state, Florida.

Tropcn was created in partnership with Tropicana’s creative agency of record, Cramer-Krasselt, PR agency of record, MullenLowe PR, and social agency of record MullenLowe US.

¹Source: IRI MULO+C, L52 Weeks, YE
²Source: IRI MULO+C, L52 Weeks, YE 11/26/23 11/26/23
³Mason Frank International

All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes

The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 20.5 million boxes, unchanged from the October forecast. If realised, this will be 30 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov