Although it is the offseason period for the tahiti lime, quotations decreased in early November. The downward trend is related to both the size and the quality of the fruit, which are below expected by the sector. However, it is worth noting that price levels are still high.
According to data from Cepea, tahiti lime prices averaged BRL 95.59 per 27.2-kg box in mid-November, downing 16.17 % against late October.
It is worth noting that the price average for the tahiti lime was at BRL 117.94/box last month, 72.2 % more than in September and moving up 71 % against October last year, in nominal terms.
Season in Florida
The 2023/24 orange season finished in September in Florida. The Citrus Department of that state in the Unites States indicated in October that local juice stocks, as observed in Brazil, finished the season at low levels.
The limited orange supply has been frequent in the US, considering that the country has become majorly an orange juice importer since the advance of greening in Florida.
It is worth noting that Brazil is the major orange juice supplier for the US market. The fact that the Brazilian industry faced both low supply and high prices in the 2023/24 season (which limited exports) might have prevented a recovery of stocks in Florida.
Regular rains and mild weather were registered in late October in the citrus belt of São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro, the biggest orange producer for the juice industry. This scenario has helped to bring a relief for trees that were affected by the lack of rains and high temperatures.
2024/25 season
Even with the return of rainfall, the current orange crop has presented low quality. Still, rains in October may improve the quality of fruits that are still on the trees. It is worth noting that the orange crop has started in June this year and may finish between December and January/25. As for tahiti lime (the main season starts between November and December), weather conditions may favor the development, since fruits are currently below the standard.
Exports
The revenue obtained by Brazilian exporters with orange juice shipments in the partial of the 2024/25 crop (from July/24 to September/24) totaled USD 905.3 million, for an increase of 42.3 % compared to the same period of the last season (USD 636.1 million), according to Comex Stat.
The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil, in turn, continues decreasing, as it has been verified since the 2023/24 crop. From July to September/24, Brazil shipped 207.5 thousand tons of orange juice, downing 27 % in relation to the same period in 2023.
The lower volume exported is linked to the limited supply. Weather adversities have been hampering the production for five consecutive seasons, which resulted in restricted inventories of juice.
High temperatures in São Paulo state in early October reinforced producers’ concerns, since this scenario can affect both fruits that are on the trees (from the current season, 2023/24) and the production of the next crop (2024/25), especially non-irrigated areas. Therefore, in mid-October, citrus growers were waiting for the rainfall in major producing regions.
So far, the biggest challenge for the current season (2023/24) has been the fact that fruits have wilted, which affects directly the quality, according to players surveyed by Cepea. In normal conditions, this quality loss would press quotations down; however, due to the limited supply this season, prices remain firm.
As for the 2024/25 crop, scenarios are distinct between irrigated and non-irrigated areas. In irrigated regions in São Paulo state, the fruit development is more advanced, but producers were still concerned with high temperatures.
On the other hand, most trees in non-irrigated areas have not blossomed yet. Thus, the return of rains is essential to mitigate the lack of soil humidity and encourage the blossoming.
The 2024/25 orange crushing was moving at a good pace at juice processing companies in São Paulo state at the end of September. According to players, the pear orange has been the most processed variety; however, the harvesting pace has been progressing, and the participation of late fruits (such as valencia and natal) has been increasing.
The harvesting is more advanced due to the higher share of fruits from the first blossoming. Data from Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) indicate that 64 % of oranges produced in this season account for the first blossoming, higher than the last four crops (36 % of the fruits, at most). Thus, the crushing pace is likely to reduce earlier this year – the second blossoming considers fruits that will be harvested from October on, according to Fundecitrus.
In addition to that, greening (HLB – Huanglongbing), above-average temperatures and the dry weather also accelerate the harvesting. As for greening, one of the symptoms of the disease is the early fruit drop, and producers may harvest in advance to avoid losses. Weather conditions, in turn, accelerate the ripening and may result in early fruit drop.
The share of late fruits in processing activities is likely to be higher in October, but the amount of pear oranges allocated to juice production can still be relevant.
Stocks
Cepea calculations, based on data released by CitrusBR on Sept. 19, indicate that Brazilian orange juice stocks may not recover during the current crop (2024/25), ending this season technically zero. Not even the forecast of improvement in industrial yield (due to below-average rainfall) and limited exports will be enough to compensate for the decrease in the volume of fruit processed.
According to CitrusBR, the stocked quantity of the commodity was 116.7 thousand tons at the end of 2023/24 crop (on June 30, 2024), being 37.7 % higher than that on the same period last year, but the third lowest in history (the series has started in 1988/89).
Most part of São Paulo state registered high temperatures in early September. This scenario brought concerns for citrus growers, who may face another year of significant heat waves.
Climatempo says that heat waves in September have become more common in most part of Brazil; however, they have been more intense and are lasting longer.
2024/25 CROP – São Paulo state and Triângulo Mineiro may harvest 215.78 million 40.8-kg boxes in the 2024/25 orange season, according to data released by Fundecitrus on September 10. The volume may be 30 % less than in the crop before, which registered average production, and below the first projection, of 232.38 million boxes.
The decrease is related to the smaller fruit size, due to the dry and warm weather. The weather also accelerated the harvesting pace, since it influenced the ripening. More than half of the crop can be harvested in this dry weather scenario because rains are forecast only for late September.
The volume of rainfall was small in almost all areas in the citrus belt, except in the southwestern region of São Paulo. Fundecitrus indicates that the only area where the production is expected to increase in this season is the southwest of SP – the harvest may be 19 % higher than in 2023/24. In other regions, the production decrease can be between 28 % and 60 %.
Total orange production1 is updated at 215.78 million boxes
The first update of the 2024-2025 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus, carried out in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2, is 215.78 million boxes of 40.8 kg. Of the total, 200.46 million boxes come from the first three blooms, while 15.32 million boxes belong to the fourth bloom. Compared to the initial estimate in May, the projection shows a reduction of 16.60 million boxes, which corresponds to a 7.1 % decrease. Analyzing by maturity group, the early-season varieties decrease by approximately 3 %, the mid-season (Pera) by 11 %, and the late-season varieties by 7 %. Compared to the previous crop (307.22 million boxes), the current projection represents a 29.8 % drop, with early-season varieties down by roughly 33 %, mid-season (Pera) by 35 %, and late-season varieties by 24 %. It is also estimated that approximately 14.34 million boxes will be harvested in the Triângulo Mineiro region. …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of Exact Sciences, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Recent wildfires in several areas in São Paulo state concerned players. According to data gathered by Cepea, wildfires hit some citrus areas, especially the central-north of the state; however, this scenario may not bring significant impacts on the volume of fruits available in the market.
According to players surveyed by Cepea, the areas hit by wildfires are small and the landowners were able to control them rapidly. The rainfall in some areas also helped to control the problem. Damages were more significant for other crops, especially sugarcane.
Market
Prices for the pear orange have been at historical levels this year both in the in natura market and in the industrial segment. The limited supply of the current season and the firm demand from the industry explain this scenario. The price average was at BRL 100.00 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, at the end of August.
However, the cold wave in São Paulo state in late August led consumers to be away from trades in the orange market. This scenario was reinforced by the end-of-the month period. On the other hand, the limited supply and high prices of industrial contracts continued to sustain quotations in the in natura market.
The 2024/25 crop-year for orange juice exports (from July/24 to June/25) has started in July and shipments, which had been moving down in 2023/24, continued to move at a slow pace. This scenario was already expected, since the supply is limited in Brazil, due to the confirmation of a smaller orange production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro. At the same time, Brazilian imports of in natura orange and tangerine rose in July.
Orange juice exports
According to Comex Stat, Brazil shipped 53.4 thousand tons of orange juice in July, downing 38 % compared to the same month in 2023. The limited supply boosted quotations. As a result, the revenue totaled USD 198.9 million in July/24, for an increase of 9 % in relation to July/23.
NFC orange juice shipments amounted 164.2 thousand tons in July/24, and the revenue totaled USD 96.45 million, upping 3 % and 55 % against July/23. As for FCOJ exports, the total was 23.6 thousand tons (-59 %), and the revenue was USD 102.4 million (-15 % in one year).
In natura citrus fruits imports
In natura orange imports are at record volumes this year, boosted by the low domestic supply and high prices of national fruits. According to data from Comex Stat, from January to July, 34.8 thousand tons were imported, 87 % up in relation to the same period last year. Expenses amounted USD 24.7 million, 72 % more this year against the previous.
As for tangerines, the volume purchased by Brazil in the partial of 2024 totaled 14.5 thousand tons, 96 % more than in the period from January to July last year. Expenses are at USD 15.65 million (+89 %).
Domestic market
Quotations of citrus fruits surveyed by Cepea may continue to increase in August, sustained by expectations of a limited supply for all varieties. This scenario can be verified despite the orange season peak.
The orange harvesting is moving at a good pace in the citrus belt, but most part of the produce has been allocated to the juice industry. Factories continue with high prices to purchase the raw material, leading many producers that typically operate in the in natura market to allocate oranges for processing activities. Therefore, not even the low demand, due to mild temperatures, was able to press down quotations.
Data released by the USDA in late July reinforced the scenario of limited world supply for the 2023/24 orange season (or 2024/25 in the Southern Hemisphere). Despite the slight increase in the production estimate compared to the crop before, the total volume may continue at historical low levels. Moreover, the decrease in Brazil, major global producer of both orange and juice, may not be counterbalanced by other suppliers.
The USDA indicates that the 2023/24 world crop is projected at 47.4 million tons, upping 1 % compared to the season before. In Brazil, the output may decrease 1.2 %, to 15.3 million tons – equivalent to 375 million 40.8-kg boxes. However, the decrease indicated by the USDA might be underestimated. In São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro, the production is likely to drop 24.4 %, according to Fundecitrus, and there are doubts whether a possible increase in other states would compensate the low volume produced in the citrus belt.
Orange juice
In spite of the slight rise in the global orange production, the orange juice output is projected at 1.5 million tons, 3 % down against the season before. The decrease is related to the lower availability of fruits to process in Brazil, which represents more than 70 % of the global OJ production.
The Brazilian output is calculated at 1.1 million tons, downing 9 %, and national exports are likely to decrease in the same intensity, since almost 100 % of the Brazilian production is sent to the international market.
Tahiti lime
The global production of lemons and limes in 2023/24 is estimated to move up 2 %, reaching 10.1 million tons, boosted by the higher output in the European Union and in Turkey.
It is worth noting that these numbers consider lemons (Sicilian, for instance) and limes (such as the tahiti lime). Among major producing countries, only Mexico produces significant volumes of tahiti lime (which is produced and exported by Brazil). Mexican shipments are likely to reduce 7.5 %, which can keep the focus of this country on supplying the US, opening more room for the Brazilian tahiti lime in the European market – Brazil has been hitting records in exports year after year.
Due to the presence of greening (Huanglongbing) in São Paulo and to the recent imbalance between supply and demand for oranges, both producers and processors have been looking for options to increase the planted area in regions outside the citrus belt, without the phytosanitary risks in SP. There have been reports of new plantings in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais (out of Triângulo Mineiro) and Goiás, areas that are not typical citrus producers.
Investments are indeed not recommended depending on the region of São Paulo state, although major processing units are located there. Many areas have high incidence of greening, which hinders new plantings. According to data from Fundecitrus, 38 % of the trees in the citrus belt had symptoms of the disease in 2023, the sixth year in a row of greening increase. It is worth noting that new plants tend to be more vulnerable to the disease, increasing costs with prevention and chances of infection.
Therefore, plantings outside SP are an option. The land availability is higher, reducing costs, and there is the absence of greening and other diseases. Moreover, the industrial productivity can be higher than in SP, due to the warmer weather, which is positive for processing companies.
On the other hand, the fact that the areas are unknown for the citrus activity concerns players, since this scenario would demand adjustments in management and irrigation, which cannot be necessarily the same as those verified in SP.
Although these regions are warmer than SP (which can favor the productivity), it tends to affect the development of the trees. Additionally, costs with freight can be higher because of logistical issues.
It is worth noting that these investments in other regions are new and, therefore, they may not affect the orange supply in the short-term – it can be verified in roughly three years, when plants start producing.
Market
The supply of citrus fruits in the in natura market in São Paulo may be low in July. As for oranges, the lower availability has been verified since the middle of last year and it is also attributed to the high demand from the industry – it is worth noting that juice stocks at processing companies may finish the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) at low levels.
Players surveyed by Cepea say that even producers who typically sell to the in natura market are focusing on sending the product to the industry this season, since prices are more attractive and there are some advantages compared to the in natura market.
The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to May/24) remains below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 914.9 thousand tons of orange juice, for a decrease of 8.9 % compared to the same period last season.
The revenue, in turn, totaled USD 2.47 billion, moving up 22 % this season in relation to the previous. The main reason for the increase in revenue was the higher price paid per ton of juice, which rose due to the low availability of the commodity in Brazil, according to agents consulted by Cepea.
OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 489.79 thousand tons from July/23 to May/24, downing 8.2 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 27 %, at USD 1.35 billion. To the US, exports dropped 11 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 293.64 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and May/24 was USD 737 million, 9 % up against the same period last season.
Domestic market
Prices of oranges allocated to processing activities have been moving up since March, when contracts involving the 2024/25 season have started to be closed. In early June, values of the fruit traded in the spot market in São Paulo state hit BRL 85.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, a new record of Cepea series, which started in 1994, in real terms (averages were deflated by the IGP-DI).
Price rises are related to both the higher demand and the limited supply. As for the demand, the industry needs to purchase the raw material, because orange juice stocks are very low. Concerning the supply, the fruit output may be small again in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro.
Orange peels may hold a key to better cardiovascular health, new University of Florida-led research shows.
Heart disease is the leading cause of death for men, women and people of most racial and ethnic groups, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Recent research has shown that some gut bacteria help develop cardiovascular disease. When they feed on certain nutrients during digestion, gut bacteria produce trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO). Levels of TMAO can help predict future cardiovascular disease, according to researchers at the Cleveland Clinic.
With help from a $500,000 USDA grant, Yu Wang and her team investigated the potential of orange peel extracts – rich in beneficial phytochemicals – to reduce TMAO and trimethylamine (TMA) production. Scientists tested two types of extracts: a polar fraction and a non-polar fraction.
To get the polar fractions, scientists used polar and non-polar solvents to extract the orange peel, Wang said.
“If you imagine your salad dressing, anything in the water or vinegar part are the polar fraction; anything in the oil away from water is the non-polar fraction,” Wang said. “The solvents we used were not exactly like water and oil, but they possess similar polarity.”
Results from the study showed that the orange peel non-polar fraction extract effectively inhibited the production of harmful chemicals. Researchers also identified a compound called feruloylputrescine in the orange peel polar fraction extract that also significantly inhibits the enzyme responsible for TMA production.
“This is a novel finding that highlights the previously unrecognised health potential of feruloylputrescine in reducing the risk of cardiovascular disease,” said Wang, a UF/IFAS associate professor of food science and human nutrition.
The orange peel finding is significant because 5 million tons of orange peels are produced each year in orange juice production nationwide. Nearly 95 % of Florida oranges are used for juice. About half of the peels go to feed cattle. The rest goes to waste.
But the Food and Drug Administration considers natural orange peel extracts safe for human consumption. So, Wang hope to put the peels to better use.
“These findings suggest that orange peels, often discarded as waste in the citrus industry, can be repurposed into valuable health-promoting ingredients, such as diet supplements or food ingredients,” said Wang, a faculty member at the UF/IFAS Citrus Research and Education Center. “Our research paves the way for developing functional foods enriched with these bioactive compounds, providing new therapeutic strategies for heart health.”
About UF/IFAS
The mission of the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences (UF/IFAS) is to develop knowledge relevant to agricultural, human and natural resources and to make that knowledge available to sustain and enhance the quality of human life. With more than a dozen research facilities, 67 county Extension offices, and award-winning students and faculty in the UF College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, UF/IFAS brings science-based solutions to the state’s agricultural and natural resources industries, and all Florida residents.
The 2024-2025 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors at FEA-RP/USP1 and FCAV/Unesp2, is 232.38 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the drop in production as compared to the previous crop):
- 37.12 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (- 36.10 %);
- 15.72 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (- 15.07 %);
- 70.97 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety (- 27.30 %);
- 81.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties (- 22.45 %);
- 26.99 million boxes of the Natal variety (- 2.91 %).
Approximately 14.61 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (- 47.48 %).
Overall, the projected volume represents a significant drop of 24.36 % as compared to the previous crop that totaled 307.22 million boxes, a value close to the average for the last decade …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Marcos Fava Neves, Part-time Full Professor at FEA-RP/USP.
2José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.
The orange processing of the 2024/25 season may be intensified in May. Three of the major processors and other two small companies (tool) have been operating at the moment. At least three more units are expected to start activities still in early May.
In the same period of 2023, only three units were operating, and a fourth company started crushing in the second week of the month. This scenario indicates a higher intensity of processing activities this year. Although current volumes are not high yet, players from the industry say that some companies have started operating in order to avoid fruit losses in a year of low supply.
Prices at companies remain firm, reaching BRL 70.00 per box for fruits of the new season. In cases of higher volumes, values can be even higher.
Due to the increase of industrial activities, the downward trend of orange prices in the in natura market, verified in April, is likely to slow down, since producers will have the industry as an option to sell the product. In April, the average for the in natura pear orange, of BRL 91.28 per 40.8-kilo box, in tree, was 3 % lower than in March.
The demand for oranges, in turn, is expected to decrease in May, because of the supply of ponkan tangerine. Moreover, possible milder temperatures in the Brazilian autumn tend to reduce the consumption.
Tahiti lime
The rainfall favoured the development of the tahiti lime in São Paulo state, increasing the supply.
Total orange production for the 2023-2024 crop season ended at 307.22 million boxes1
The 2023-2024 orange crop for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors from FEA- RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 – concluded with 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each (90 lbs), divided as follows:
- 58.09 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi early-season varieties;
- 18.51 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada early-season varieties;
- 97.62 million boxes of the Pera Rio mid-season variety;
- 105.20 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha late-season varieties;
- 27.80 million boxes of the Natal late-season variety.
Of the total, about 27.82 million boxes were produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The season´s production was 2.22% lower in comparison to the previous crop, which reached 314.21 million boxes and was 0.69% below the initial forecast made in May 2023 …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All oranges 18.8 million boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is lowered 1.00 million boxes to 18.8 million boxes. If realised, this will be 19 percent more than last season’s revised production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 12.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to March/24) was below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to players from the industry, the low availability of the commodity in the Brazilian market may be limiting shipments. As for prices of the juice sold to the international market, they moved up.
The 2023/24 season in Brazil is expected to finish (in June/24) with reduced orange juice stocks at the industry. As a result, some players are unwilling to export large amounts in order to avoid having zero stocks by the end of 2023/24.
According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 812.2 thousand tons of orange juice in the partial of 2023/24, for a decrease of 7.7 % compared to the same period last season. The revenue totaled USD 2.08 billion, moving up 23 % this season in relation to the previous and close to the total registered in the crop before (USD 2.14 billion up to June/23).
OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 419.9 thousand tons from July/23 to March/24, downing 7.7 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 26 %, at USD 1.1 billion. To the US, exports dropped 4.4 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 265.7 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and March/24 was USD 667.1 million, 18 % up against the same period last season.
Market in Brazil
The market of the tahiti lime in São Paulo closed March with firm prices. Players surveyed by Cepea say that this is related to the low supply, since rains affected the harvest. As a result, the monthly price average was BRL 31.17 per 27-kilo box, harvested, 55 % up in relation to February.
As for the orange, prices also closed March at higher levels. The supply was low (due to the offseason period and to the good demand from the industry) and the demand in the in natura market was firm, because of high temperatures. Therefore, the price average was BRL 93.56 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, upping 7 % in relation to February.
Brazilian orange juice processors finished 2023 with low stocks. A report released by CitrusBR in March indicates that the volume was 463.94 thousand tons (equivalent to concentrate juice) on December 31, 2023, being 6.7 % higher than that on the same day last year, but the second lowest in history (the series has started in 2011).
Considering that the industry is practically in the offseason period, and, therefore, they have been using stocks to supply the international market, the stocked volume is likely to decrease month after month. This scenario brings concerns about the global supply, since Brazil is the biggest world exporter, and, although there are no forecasts for the next crop (2024/25) yet, the orange production may not increase compared to the current season.
CitrusBR has not projected the ending stocks for the orange juice industry this season. However, data from Cepea indicate that stocks may finish the season higher than in the previous, especially because of the decrease in exports.
Taking 2023/24 initial stocks, of 84.75 thousand tons (CitrusBR), processing of 267 million boxes (discounting the 40 million boxes of the in natura market of the total volume projected by Fundecitrus), the same juice yield of the previous crop and the 6 % decrease of exports (from July/23 to February/24), the amount in stocks by the end of the 2023/24 season (on June 30, 2024) would be only 94.5 thousand tons, 11 % more than in the same period last year.
In spite of the projection of an increase compared to the last season, it is worth noting that 2022/23 ending stocks were the lowest in recent history.
Production
The rainfall in orange producing areas in São Paulo state has been favoring the 2024/25 season. Players surveyed by Cepea say that the good humidity has been positive for the fruits, allowing to anticipate the harvest of early varieties, which have started to be offered in the in natura market in February and may be intensified in March.
A survey carried out by independent audits firms with each of CitrusBR members, and subsequently consolidated confidentially by an external audit, found that the global inventories of Brazilian orange juice, converted into FCOJ Equivalent, held by CitrusBR members on December 31st, 2023 were 463,940.92 tons. Although representing an increase of 6.7 % in comparison to the 434,943 tonnes from the previous season, this number is the second lowest figure in the historical series. The disclosure of final processing data and industrial yield on fruit will be done by CitrusBR later in 2024.
Please download the market information under www.citrusbr.com
Pear orange prices in the in natura market hit a new record in February, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 – values were deflated by IGP-DI December/23. Quotations are likely to continue at high levels in March, since the volume of early varieties in the spot market in São Paulo is still small.
In February, pear orange prices averaged BRL 87.40 per 40.8-kilo box, on tree, 9.29 % up compared to January/24 and an increase of 83 % in relation to February/23 (in this case, in nominal terms). Price rises are linked to the lower supply in this offseason period, while the supply of late and early varieties is also limited. It is worth noting that the firm industrial demand reduced even more the fruit availability in the domestic market during the entire season.
TAHITI LIME – Prices have started February in a downward trend; however, they rose during the month, leading to an increase of the monthly average. Although it is the peak season, frequent rains limited the harvest and, consequently, the supply. Moreover, weather conditions have been favoring the fruit quality.
In this scenario, the tahiti lime price average in the in natura market was BRL 20.11 per 27-kg box (harvested) in February, moving up 46.36 % and 104 % in relation to January/24 and February/23, respectively, in nominal terms.
Values are likely to remain firm in March because of the lower volume that will be harvested. Moreover, exports may increase, especially due to the proximity of Easter, which can influence to flow the product.
Total forecast production of oranges1 remains at 307.22 million boxes
The third forecast for the 2023/24 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 09, 2024 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2, maintains the projection of 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, unchanged in total volume from the previous forecast. This represents a reduction of 0.7 % when compared to the initial forecast for the season. Of the total estimated production, approximately 27.76 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
All Oranges 19.8 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 19.8 million boxes, down 700,000 boxes from the January forecast. If realised, this will be 25 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 6.80 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Pear orange prices have been moving up since the beginning of the 2023/24 season in the in natura market. In January, values hit the record of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. In the first month of 2024, the price average was BRL 78.89 per 40.8-kilo box, moving up 16% compared to December/23 and 90% in relation to January/23, in real terms (values were deflated by IGP-DI Dec/23). Up until January/24, the highest value in real terms had been BRL 74.92/box, in November 1994.
This scenario of high prices is related to the limited supply. The production in the current crop is on average; however, low orange juice stocks increase the need to buy the raw material, reducing the orange supply in the in natura market.
As for the demand, players surveyed by Cepea say that it is firm, since temperatures are high, favoring the consumption of the fruit.
The pear orange supply is expected to continue limited in February, which is still considered offseason.
Industry
Prices for pear orange and late varieties for the industry had hit a real record in November. Since then, they have been renewing the record level of Cepea series, which has started in 1994. However, values are now moving down, considering the closing of new trades.
The price average for pear orange and late varieties for the industry was BRL 57.68 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, in January, increasing 10% against the month before and 76% in relation to January 2023, in real terms.
Tahiti lime
Prices finished January at low levels, due to the peak season. The price average in January 2024 was BRL 13.56 per 27-kg box (harvested), for a decrease of 28% compared to the last month of 2023.
The tahiti lime supply is expected to continue high in February, due to rains in January, which can favor both the fruit development and the quality.
Contrary to concerns – oft repeated on social media – that the manufacturing process destroys the nutritional value of shop bought 100 % orange juice, researchers from leading universities in Spain and Italy have found levels of polyphenols – valuable bioactive compounds linked to health – are similar in home-squeezed and shop-bought juice.
The study, published in the International Journal of Food Sciences and Nutrition*, compared the most popular shop bought orange juices in the UK, Germany, France and Spain against freshly squeezed ‘Navelina’ oranges. It found that while home squeezed juice contains more vitamin C than shop-bought equivalents, this degrades significantly over time and is expected to reach shop bought juice levels after a week.
The study also established that shop bought orange juice contains 94 % of European recommendations for daily vitamin C intakes – set at 90 mg for men and 80 mg for women – meaning only a minor impact on consumers from a nutritional standpoint.
Vitamin C, found in fruits and vegetables, is essential for human health since it can’t be synthesised by the body and is involved in many biochemical functions including immunity, neutralising free radicals, iron absorption, bone formation and synthesis of collagen. Low intakes can be noticed as poor wound healing and gum inflammation.
Lead scientist in the study, Dr Cristina Viguera from the Department of Food Science and Technology at CEBAS-CSIC, said: “Our research indicates that there’s limited nutritional advantage to spending time home squeezing oranges when you can obtain similar levels of polyphenols and most of the vitamin C you need from a good quality shop bought version.
“We also found that shop bought orange juices preserve their bioactive compounds during storage and the brand, country or manufacturing process made little difference to the polyphenols or vitamin C. Overall, orange juice is still a rich source of vitamin C whether it’s freshly squeezed or purchased”.
*Salar et al. (2024) Comparison of vitamin C and flavanones between freshly squeezed orange juices and commercial 100 % orange juices from four European countries. https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/38230429/.
In 2024, orange prices paid to citrus growers in São Paulo/Triângulo Mineiro may remain at high levels. The supply may continue to be lower than the industrial demand, keeping the availability limited in the in natura market.
So far, there are no solid aspects that allow to project the volume that will be harvested in the 2024/25 season; however, the orange juice supply may not be enough to meet the demand, especially because of the expectation of low juice stocks in June 2024.
CitrusBR says that the volume in stocks by the end of the 2022/23 season (in June/23) was only 84.745 thousand tons equivalent to concentrate juice. Cepea calculations based on the orange production forecast by Fundecitrus indicate that the volume in stocks by the end of the current season (2023/24, in June/24) may not be higher. This scenario may be reinforced in case exports continue intense and the productivity remains below-average.
Therefore, it would be important if the orange volume harvested in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro is above the average over the last years in order for the processed volume to meet exports and allow a recovery in stocks by June 2025. However, challenges faced in the second semester of 2023 (greening and heat waves) may bring difficulties for a good harvest in 2024/25.
It is worth noting that Brazil does not have major competitors regarding the global orange juice supply. Mexico, an important supplier for the US market, has been facing difficulties in the production, especially because of the dry weather, while Florida has been facing the impacts of greening. In this scenario, a decrease in the Brazilian availability might affect the world orange juice supply.
Investments
Although the profitability scenario had been positive in 2023, major investments in São Paulo are not expected for 2024, due to the high incidence of greening. The planting can continue firm in Triângulo Mineiro, but the availability of soil and water for irrigation are limited.
2023 was a very positive year for the citrus activity in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro concerning prices received by citrus farmers. Orange values were at firm levels during the year in both the in natura market and at the industry – in this segment, quotations hit record levels in real terms, allowing a year of good profitability.
This scenario is explained by the lower supply compared to the demand, despite the fact that the 2023/24 production is on average. Orange juice stocks started the season at low levels, and there was the need to purchase the raw material in order to prevent a significant decrease of stocks at the end of the current season. Moreover, the orange juice demand is firm in the international market, especially from the US, country that has been registering limited production for years due to greening (HLB) impacts.
In November, prices of orange to the industry hit real records, considering Cepea historical series, which has started in October 1994 (monthly values were deflated by IGP-DI October/23).
Orange production
The 2023/24 orange season in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro may decrease 2.2 % compared to the previous, according to Fundecitrus. The total volume is forecast at 307.22 million boxes, 0.7 % smaller in relation to the first estimate, released in May.
The decrease is related to above-average rains, which increased the incidence of blossom-end rot, to the negative biennial cycle (except in the north), the lower volume of flowers verified in some late variety trees and to the intensity of greening.
It is important to mention that this volume is below the need of the industry to meet the international demand and increase juice stocks, which are very low. According to CitrusBR, the volume in stocks hit the lowest level in 12 years, totaling only 84.745 thousand tons of volume equivalent to concentrate juice by the end of the 2022/23 season (June/23), downing 40.7 % compared to the previous crop. These critical numbers arise serious concerns about the global orange juice supply.
Tropicana introduces “Tropcn”, a new limited-edition packaging – now with the letters “AI” removed from their name – to celebrate the leading orange juice brand’s1 natural ingredients, highlighting the fact that there is nothing artificial, and never has been anything artificial, in Tropicana Pure Premium orange juice. America’s favourite OJ2 has been made from natural oranges, picked at the pinnacle of ripeness, and squeezed within 24 hours to create 100 % juice for more than 75 years.
Each week, there seems to be a new development in artificial intelligence. Each new AI advancement seemingly brings us closer to the artificial world and further from the natural. Consumer intrigue, and even concern, is high. In fact, searches for “What is AI?” increased by 643 % from 2022 to 20233. So, to celebrate the natural ingredients and nothing artificial in Tropicana Pure Premium orange juice, Tropicana is heading to the biggest consumer electronics event, CES 2024 (January 9-11), to release a limited-edition package of “Tropcn” Pure Premium orange juice.
“Our limited-edition run of ‘Tropcn’ orange juice bottles represents our ongoing commitment to delivering the highest quality 100 % orange juice to Americans,” said Monica McGurk, CEO of Tropicana Brands Group’s North American business unit. “Since 1954, Tropicana has been at the forefront, innovating ways to bring fresh-tasting orange juice from natural oranges to breakfast tables nationwide. Artificial just isn’t in our DNA.”
Not attending CES 2024 in Las Vegas? Tropicana has hidden bottles of “Tropcn” across participating Kroger Family of Stores in the US. If you find a bottle in the wild, scan the code and enter for a chance to win a trip to the original orange juice state, Florida.
Tropcn was created in partnership with Tropicana’s creative agency of record, Cramer-Krasselt, PR agency of record, MullenLowe PR, and social agency of record MullenLowe US.
1Source: IRI MULO+C, L52 Weeks, YE
2Source: IRI MULO+C, L52 Weeks, YE 11/26/23 11/26/23
3Mason Frank International
All Oranges 20.5 Million Boxes
The 2023-2024 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 20.5 million boxes, unchanged from the October forecast. If realised, this will be 30 percent more than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 7.50 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties) and 13.0 million boxes of Valencia oranges. An 8-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma, and the 2022-2023 season, which was affected by Hurricanes Ian and Nicole. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
The combination of low orange supply and firm demand over the last weeks, due to high temperatures, has been keeping prices on the rise in both the in natura market and at the industry.
Orange prices have been hitting records in both segments – as for fruits to the industry, the current average is a real record, considering the Cepea series, which started in October 1994 (monthly prices were deflated by IGP-DI October). Even with an average crop, orange juice stocks at processing companies are low, resulting in a fruit supply that is lower than the demand.
In November, pear oranges are traded in the in natura market at BRL 58.90 per box, 45.9 % higher than in November last year (in real terms) and the highest of Cepea series, in nominal terms. In real terms, the current average is the highest since March 2019 and the fourth biggest considering the months of November.
Prices for pear orange and late varieties sent to the industry, in turn, have averaged BRL 49.04 per box in November, soaring 60.3 % compared to November/22, in real terms, and the highest of the series.
The supply in Brazil is expected to be lower than the demand at least until the end of the crop. The following season can still register a limited availability, considering that current OJ stocks may not recover at the end of the 2023/24 crop. In case the 2024/25 season continues on the average, stocks may present a new decrease. Therefore, if the crop is below-average, the situation can be critical.
Millions of Brits could be more susceptible to winter cold and flu as they are not stocking their fridges and cupboards with the right food and drink due to not knowing the vitamins and minerals that can help improve their immunity, a new study has revealed.
A survey of UK adults by the Fruit Juice Science Centre and Savanta ComRes found that while most (84 %) correctly identified vitamin C as a key nutrient for optimal immunity, many weren’t able to identify the other vitamins and minerals which can help guard against winter illnesses.
When asked which nutrients can help natural immunity, fewer than four in 10 (38 %) correctly identified Iron, commonly found in foods such as red meat, lentils and spinach, while even fewer (32 %) chose vitamin E, which is contained in nuts and seeds, grapefruit juice and red peppers.
Selenium (9 %), found in eggs and poultry, and folate (8 %), found in many green vegetables and 100 % orange juice, were other immunity-boosting nutrients that few consumers know can help guard against flu. Copper (7 %), often found in shellfish and beans, was the least recognised of nutrients with government-backed immunity claims.
Despite three quarters (76 %) of Brits knowing that diet impacts natural immunity, this lack of understanding around vitamins and minerals means many are unsure which food groups they should be consuming. Only half (51 %) identified that 100 % fruit juice and smoothies can support immunity, with 46 % selecting fish and proteins such as beans and eggs. Just one in five (21 %) identified meat as a good source of the key immunity nutrients, iron and zinc.
The research also demonstrated the lasting impact that Covid-19 has had on our approach to winter illness. 55 % of Brits expect to catch a cold or flu this winter, which equates to more than 22 million people. Of these, 45 % will self-isolate if they develop a cold or flu, while 43 % will wear a mask.
Concerningly, more than a third of Brits (35 %) said they would still go into work despite being ill, raising the prospect of offices becoming hotbeds of sickness, while a quarter (26 %) said they wouldn’t wash their hands more frequently if they caught a winter illness.
Leading nutritionist, Dr Emma Derbyshire, commented: “Winter illnesses will hit many of us this year as we return to normal social situations yet it’s clear from this new survey that some are taking their eye off the ball on handwashing and staying at home to avoid infecting others. Whilst having a healthy diet can’t stop viruses, it can help us get over respiratory illnesses faster by supporting our natural immunity. An easy first step is drinking a daily glass of orange juice – just 28% of consumers understand it doesn’t contain any added sugar – which is a convenient and effective source of vitamin C and folate, both proven to support normal immune function”.
Emma Derbyshire’s five nutrition tips for winter immunity are:
- Drink a daily glass of 100 % orange juice to naturally boost your intake of vitamin C and folate.
- Aim for at least 5 daily servings of fruit and vegetables for their vitamin A content.
- Choose wholegrain breakfast cereals, bread and rice as the fibre will promote friendly species of gut bacteria – a first line of defence against winter illnesses.
- Have one serving of oily fish weekly which is rich in calming omega-3 fats and immune-supporting vitamin D.
- Take a handful of Brazil nuts as a snack as these are high in selenium.
The higher demand for orange juice from the United States raised the Brazilian exports of the commodity in the first two months of the 2023/24 exporting season (July and August). The average price paid for the national juice increased in that period too, influenced by low inventories and the lower output in Brazil. The higher volume exported and the valuation of the Brazilian juice abroad resulted in a significant increase in the revenue of exporters.
According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), Brazil exported 182.9 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in July and August, 4% more than the volume shipped in the same period of 2022. Revenue totaled USD 397.9 million, a staggering 20% up in the same comparison.
As for the types of juice exported, shipments of Not-From-Concentrate (NFC) orange juice increased 19 %, and revenue, 25 %; of FCOJ, the volume exported decreased 3 %, while the revenue rose 17 %. The different performances of the exports of these types of juice are linked to the higher demand from the US for NFC juice, whose volume sent to the North-American country rose a staggering 51 %.
The United States
For one more season, the US have been importing orange juice from Brazil. In the first two months of the current season (23/24), the US imported 50.5 thousand tons of FCOJ, an increase of 38 % compared to that in the same period of 2022/23. Revenue totaled USD 113.2 million, 57 % higher, in the same comparison.
Lower orange production in the US because of the 2022/23 crop of Florida – which has decreased 62 %, according to the USDA – and lower supply from Mexico, the second major supplier of orange juice to the US, led the country to raise imports from Brazil.
European Union
To the European Union, Brazil exported, in July and August, 112.6 thousand tons of orange juice, a slight 3 % up from that last season. Revenue totaled USD 241.9 million in the two first months of the season, 14 % higher, in the same comparison.
Crop Estimates
According to data released this week by Fundecitrus, the 2023/24 harvest in the citrus belt (São Paulo State + the Triângulo Mineiro) is expected at 309.34 million boxes of 40.8-kg each, stable compared to that estimated in May but 1.5 % lower than the output from last season. It is important to highlight that this volume is a lot lower than the industry’s needs to meet the demand from abroad and replenish inventories, which are currently very low.
A survey carried out through independent auditing of each of the companies associated with CitrusBR and also consolidated by external auditing revealed that the total oranges processed in the Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais Citrus Belt in the 2022/23 season was estimated at 265,292,217 boxes of oranges of 40.8 kg of which 243,967,550 boxes were processed by CitrusBR members and close to 21.3 million boxes were processed by non-members.
With the final estimated juice yield on fruit of 280.58 boxes of oranges to produce one metric ton of FCOJ equivalent in aggregate for CitrusBR members and non-members, the final estimate for total orange juice production for the 2022/23 season was of 945,529 metric tons of FCOJ equivalent …
Please download the full report: www.citrusbr.com
The Brazilian orange crop for Marketing Year (MY) 2022/23 is forecast at 410.6 million 40.8-kg boxes (MBx) or 16.75 million metric tons (MMT), a slight decrease of 1.1 percent vis-à-vis the current season, with the resumption of the biennial crop cycle and consequently, a lower fruit load per tree. Meanwhile, orange weight at harvest is projected to increase 3.71 percent in relation previous crop, due to heavy rains throughout the citrus belt since October 2022. FCOJ 65 Brix equivalent production for MY 2022/23 is forecast at 1.125 million metric tons (MMT), a decrease of nine percent from the estimated orange juice production for MY 2021/22, which was revised upward to 1.135 MMT. A larger share will supply the U.S. market to compensate Florida’s juice production, which was damaged significantly by hurricane Ian. …
Please download the full report: https://apps.fas.usda.gov
The 2022-2023 Florida all orange forecast released by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 15.9 million boxes. The total is comprised of 6.15 million boxes of non-Valencia oranges (early, mid-season, and Navel varieties), unchanged from the June forecast, and 9.70 million boxes of Valencia oranges, up 100,000 boxes from the June forecast. The forecast of all Florida grapefruit production is lowered 10,000 boxes to 1.81 million boxes. Of the total grapefruit forecast, 250,000 boxes are white, and 1.56 million boxes are the red varieties. The Florida all tangerine and tangelo forecast is now 480,000 boxes. …
Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov
Klaveness Digital announces its latest partnership with Citrosuco, a global leader in orange juice concentrate production, as the company adopts CargoValue to optimise supply chain operations. Citrosuco is the latest to join a growing community of industrial companies taking the lead in how they manage their seaborne supply chain.
In today’s highly competitive market, Citrosuco recognises the value of incorporating advanced technologies to support its standing in the global citrus industry. The company’s dedication to creating top-quality products and embracing environmentally responsible practices has encouraged its pursuit of innovative solutions for enhancing its supply chain.
With the adoption of CargoValue, Citrosuco can now efficiently plan and manage their entire shipping and inventory schedule in one solution with a single source of information, from planning to production, allowing the company to reduce risks and costs. Citrosuco currently has 5 marine terminals located in: Santos (BR), Wilmington (USA), Gent (Belgium), Toyohashi (Japan) and Newcastle (Australia), as well as 5 dedicated ships and 1 multi-cargo vessel.
According to Luiz Fernando Ragonha Jr, the Director of Supply Chain Planning at Citrosuco’s Santos Port Terminal, the adoption of CargoValue by Citrosuco reaffirms the company’s prominent position in the global citrus industry. By embracing this cutting-edge technology, Citrosuco demonstrates its unwavering commitment to keeping pace with the latest industry trends and advancements. The implementation of this solution not only enables Citrosuco to streamline its operations and decrease operating costs, but also plays a crucial role in reducing the company’s environmental impact. By identifying opportunities for more sustainable transportation and storage practices, Citrosuco actively contributes to its CO₂ emission reduction targets, thereby aligning itself with a more environmentally conscious future.
Greater efficiency, cost savings, and sustainability in the supply chain
“By incorporating CargoValue into their operations, Citrosuco demonstrates their forward-thinking approach and commitment to excellence,” said Aleksander Stensby, CEO at Klaveness Digital AS. “We’re excited to partner with Citrosuco to help them achieve greater efficiency, cost savings, and sustainability in their global supply chain.”
2023 -2024 orange crop forecast
The 2023 – 2024 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus beltby Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors at FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp, is 309.34 million boxes (40.8 kg). Total orange production includes:
- 56.11 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin and Rubi varieties;
- 18.22 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada;
- 98.95 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety;
- 105.23 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties;
- 30.83 million boxes of the Natal variety.
Approximately 27.02 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro region.
The projected volume is lower only by 1.55 percent as compared to the previous crop, which totaled 314.21 million boxes. That minor difference maintains the production at the same level as in the previous crop season and within the average range for the last ten years, as shown in Graph 1. As compared to the average volume produced in the last decade, the current crop shows a slight increase of 1.04 percent …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
The Brazilian exports of orange juice are on the rise in the current season (2022/23). According to data from Secex (Foreign Trade Secretariat), between July/22 and Feb/23, Brazil exported 776.3 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent, 14 % more than that shipped in the same period of the previous season. Revenue totaled USD 1.5 billion, 34 % higher, in the same comparison.
The higher increase in the revenue than in the volume exported highlights the higher average price paid for the commodity exported by Brazil. Data from Secex show that the quotations for the national FCOJ Equivalent rose 22 % between the last and the current seasons, and for Not-From-Concentrate juice, 7 %.
Exports to the European Union, the number one destination for the Brazilian orange juice, have decreased 2 % this season, while revenue has increased 16 % because of the recent valuations.
To the United States, exports are on the rise. In the current season, 240 thousand tons of the product have been shipped to this destination, a staggering 82 % up from that last season. Revenue more than doubled (+ 110 %), totaling USD 478.7 million. With shipments to the EU being stable and the increase to the USA, the share of the Brazilian juice in the total imported by the USA rose from 19 % in 2021/22 to 31 % in 2022/23.
It is important to mention that America’s high demand for the Brazilian juice is linked to the fact that the 2022/23 orange season in Florida has been compromised by the high incidence of greening and natural disasters, such as hurricanes and frosts.
Firmenich introduces Orange NextGen replacers and extenders, its natural alternative to FTNF (From The Named Fruit) orange oils, achieving identical orange flavours at significant economic benefit to customers and enabling sustained supply.
The global orange oil market has been under severe pressure and volatility in recent years due to crop shortages, poor fruit quality, climate-related challenges, and transportation instability. To address these supply disruptions and meet the growing demand for orange citrus oils, Firmenich has developed a range of natural, high-performing Orange WONF (With Other Natural Flavours) solutions, achieving taste profiles identical to orange oils.
“A fundamental part of our commitment to being our client’s unrivaled Citrus Partner means providing great taste and consistent quality, together with supply stability,” said Sonia Botta, Firmenich’s Global Citrus VP. “This is especially relevant in light of the continuing supply challenges facing the orange oil market. By leveraging our strong in-house citrus capabilities, advanced analytical expertise and deep understanding of natural molecules, our experienced Citrus Flavorists have masterfully created Orange NextGen replacers and extenders, allowing us to provide equivalent taste at cost competitiveness.”
For use in a wide variety of applications including waters, juices, alcoholic beverages, sweet goods and savory products, Firmenich’s Orange NextGen is designed to replace or extend orange oils, helping customers avoid product disruptions and delivering the same great flavour their consumers have grown to love.
The processing of the oranges from the 2022/23 crop is beginning to slow down in Brazil, but it is still higher than the usual for this time of the year. In February, five plants – of the large-sized processors – were operating, the same as that last year but much more than that in 2020 and in 2021, when only a single plant was processing oranges.
According to Cepea collaborators, last year, the orange harvest was delayed, which explained the higher volume being processed in February. However, in the 2022/23 season, late processing is due to rains, which are hampering crop activities – although workers manage to get into the groves to harvest oranges, transportation is being difficulted.
The end of processing is still uncertain. Agents from processors reported that planning has been postponed because of the difficulties in crop activities. So far, some plants are expected to continue to process oranges in March.
A frequent concern among agents from processors is the yield of the oranges being harvested, majorly in 2023. They reported that, with frequent rainfall, the quality of the fruits for juice production has decreased, raising the number of boxes needed to the produce a ton of concentrated juice – higher moisture raises water absorption by fruits.
As for prices in the spot market, they were up to BRL 38.00 per 40.8-kilo box (harvested and delivered to processor) in February, considering large-sized companies. At smaller-sized processors, the prices paid for pear and late oranges reached BRL 40.00/box.
For the new crop (2023/24), whose processing is expected to begin in May/June, bids from large-sized processors have been up to BRL 38.00/box. Agents from processors reported that, despite the increase compared to the first bids for the 2022/23 crop, farmers expected higher prices, and, thus, many of them postponed deals.
ORANGE JUICE – Despite the valuation of concentrated orange juice at ICE Futures in recent months, there have not been major reflexes on processors’ revenue. According to Cepea collaborators, most of the juice is being sold through contracts with fixed prices. Since Jan. 1st, the contract due in March has valued 19%%, closing at USD 3,543/ton on Feb. 23rd.
TAHITI LIME – Tahiti lime processing was high in February but is expected to slow down in March. The company that processes tahiti lime aims to receive lower volumes of the fruit in the coming weeks. In February, two plants were receiving tahiti lime, but from March onwards, only one of them is expected to keep activities going. The prices paid by large and small-sized processors for tahiti lime are between BRL 12 and BRL 14/box.
The demand for oranges in the in natura market has been increasing since mid-January. The supply, in turn, is low, especially for out of season pear oranges, which present higher quality compared to others. Therefore, pear orange prices are moving up, operating above BRL 50.00 per 40.8-kilo box (on tree). The average price for pear oranges was at BRL 47.59 per box (on tree) between Feb 13 and 16, for an increase of 3.4 % from that in the week before.
The supply of late fruits is also low, but slightly higher than that for pear oranges, and the ripening level is more advanced, which is leading some purchasers away from trades.
Concerning the tahiti lime, prices are at low levels and have not been enough to cover production costs for most citrus growers. However, in mid-February, players surveyed by Cepea reported a slight price rise because of the firm demand (as the carnaval period was close in Brazil, the demand to prepare drinks usually increases) and of the quality improvement in some areas – fruits that are close to the ideal standard have higher prices. In spite of that, tahiti prices may not recover significantly up to the end of February, since the supply is expected to continue high.
ORANGE JUICE EXPORTS – Brazilian shipments of orange juice continue to increase in the partial of the 2022/23 season (from July/22 to January/23). Secex data indicate that the volume totaled 707.7 thousand tons, 15% up compared to the same period in 2021/22. The revenue totaled USD 1.3 billion, for an increase of 35% in the same comparison.
Updated orange production1 forecast totals 316.23 million boxes
The third 2022-2023 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 10, 2023 by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2 amounted to 316.23 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, a volume 0.7 % higher than the projected scenario in December 2022. This increase is mainly due to the production of the Pera Rio variety, whose harvest is close to the end with higher-than-expected yield. The heavy rains that occurred in the last two months could have further expanded the crop yield, since they contributed to the growth and weight increase of oranges. However, the highly frequent and intense rainfall (many in the form of storms), also significantly intensified the premature fruit drop, offsetting the positive effect of weight gain. This was especially true for the late varieties, as most of these cultivars had not been harvested when the heavy rains started …
Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf
1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha and Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
Flowers of the 2023/24 crop, verified in the second semester of 2022, were considered excellent in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro, which resulted in expectations of a good harvest. However, the weather after flowers blossomed was not ideal in many areas. Therefore, the next season may register lower supply compared to the demand.
Areas that have irrigation system (44 % of the total is located in the north of São Paulo state) registered anticipated flowers (in mid-July), and the weather was good after the blossoming. In this case, the development is considered satisfactory.
In other areas, however, scenarios were very distinct, since the rainfall was irregular and at different volumes among the regions. In the southwest of SP, flowers blossomed in late September, while it occurred in mid-October in other areas. In this case, as flowers opened in the rainy season (September/October), there had been more cases of blossom-end rot (“estrelinha”), increasing flower abortion.
Another aspect that reinforced concerns of the citrus sector in Brazil is the below-average amount of rainfall in many regions during the flower-settlement (especially in November), and temperatures were high in some moments. Thus, fruitlets dropped. From mid-December until now, rains have been more frequent, which brings relief, but are not capable to revert the scenario of losses.
In general, players expected that the 2023/24 season would be higher than the current; however, after many difficulties, opinions have started to change. The USDA released a report in December indicating that the Brazilian production may total 305 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 1.9% less compared to the current crop. It is important to mention that a more accurate forecast for 2023/24 will be possible only in mid-February.
Therefore, the scenario of low inventories at the end of 2022/23 may not be reverted in the next season. CitrusBR says that the ending stocks by June/23 may total only 140 thousand tons, lower than the strategic level, of 250 thousand tons.
Cepea calculations indicate that, in order for the volume in stocks by the end of 2023/24 (in June/24) returns to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, the orange processing in 2023/24 may be at roughly 300 million 40.8-kilo boxes, which is equivalent to a production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro at 340 million boxes, higher than what the USDA forecast.
TAHITI LIME – The first two months of 2023 may register high supply in São Paulo state, due to the peak period, which can press down quotations. On the other hand, as the industry may intensify processing activities and exports tend to increase in this period, the volume available is expected to reduce in the domestic market.
In 2022, orange prices were similar to those in 2021 in the in natura market. Although the production had increased in the citrus belt in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro, the supply was controlled, due to the fact that more fruits were sent to the industry. However, both the Brazilian economy and the weather were unstable, limiting the consumption in some periods. From January to November, the average price for pear oranges was at BRL 38.93 per 40.8-kilo box (on tree), 1.6 % down compared to the same period in 2021.
As for the industrial segment, values moved up from 2021 to 2022, despite the recovery in the orange production. Juice stocks closed the 2021/22 season at low levels, leading processors to increase the demand for the raw material. From July to November, the average price in the spot market was BRL 31.22 per 40.8-kilo box (harvested and delivered), 8% up in relation to the same period in 2021. It is worth noting that producers were expecting more significant price rises, due to the sharp increase of production costs.
The orange production in the 2022/23 season is likely to hit 314.11 million 40.8-kilo boxes in the citrus belt (SP and Triângulo Mineiro), for an increase of 19.5 % in relation to the crop before, according to that projected by Fundecitrus in December/22. This forecast is related to the favourable weather (regular rainfall). In spite of the recovery, the production may not be enough to have surplus, due to the high demand from the industry, since juice stocks are low.
According to CitrusBR, orange juice ending stocks in the 2021/22 crop (June/22) were confirmed at low levels, 143.1 thousand tons, downing almost 55 % compared to the season before.
Despite the increase in the 2022/23 orange production, the volume in stocks by the end of the crop may not recover. CitrusBR estimates that 2022/23 stocks, in June 2023, are likely to total 140 thousand tons. The industrial yield, in turn, may be lower than in the crop before, and exports are expected to increase, due to the higher juice demand from the US.
JUICE EXPORTS – Orange juice shipments decreased 3 % in the 2021/22 season (from July/21 to June/22) compared to the previous. Exports to all destinations totaled slightly more than 1 million tons, according to Secex. The revenue amounted USD 1.68 billion, 9 % up in the same comparison.
This is the second consecutive crop that shipments move down, and this may be related to the low orange production in São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro over the last two crops (2020/21 and 2021/22). The revenue increase, in turn, is linked to the higher dollar prices, especially from March/22 onwards. In the partial of the current season (from July/22 to November/22), exports are moving up again, influenced by the firm demand from the United States.
The 2022/23 orange crop in Florida may be the lowest since 1936/37, with the impacts of greening reinforced by hurricanes Ian and Nicole. In December, the USDA updated its production estimate to only 20 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 29 % less compared to that forecast in October and 51 % below the previous season.
The UK Government has announced that it is suspending the tariffs imposed on a range of food and drink items, including orange juice (see the full list via this link).
Success on the latter product comes after the BSDA and the British Fruit Juice Association applied (in July 2021) to get the two commodity codes which make orange juice products more expensive suspended.
During the UK’s membership of the EU, Industry had to submit applications to the bloc to request suspensions, which then had to be assessed by all member states.
BSDA Director Gavin Partington, said: “We welcome the Government’s decision to suspend the tariffs placed on orange juice imports. This will ease some of the cost pressures faced by our members such as on fuel and transport. A 150 ml serving of orange juice counts as one of your 5 A Day and is a cost effective way of working towards the target which – according to NHS data – is currently being missed by all age groups.”
The tariff suspensions are expected to apply for a period from 1 January 2023 to 31 December 2024.
Louis Dreyfus Company B.V. announced the successful development of a new product made from not-from-concentrate (NFC) orange juice, presenting a 30 % reduction in natural sugar content and more than triple dietary fiber content, while preserving original taste (Brix value) and vitamin C level.
Further to a five-year research effort by the Group’s in-house R&D laboratory team of food engineers, chemists and biotechnologists in Bebedouro, São Paulo State, Brazil, LDC has developed a successful process to reduce sugar content in orange juice, in line with the company’s commitment to offer nutritious, high-quality juices that address growing consumer demand.
“Complementing our extensive portfolio of juices and ingredients from Brazilian-grown citrus fruits, this new product represents another positive step in LDC’s strategy to diversify revenue through value-added products, including specialty ingredients and products like this one,” said Juan José Blanchard, LDC’s Global Head of Juice. “Leveraging our global network and partnerships, LDC aims to bring this new product to the global market in collaboration with leading beverage industry players, contributing to the advent of healthy, nutritious juice product options that respond to consumer expectations, while continuing to invest in R&D activities targeting further reductions in sugar content.”
Although commercial roll-out is initially focused on Asia Pacific, with an initial launch planned in early 2023 in China, the new product is available to industry customers worldwide, including in Europe, North America and South America, where the Group sees growing consumer demand for healthy, nutritious, great-tasting diet options.
From now on, JuiSea Shipping will operate a regular shipping service from Ghent in North Sea Port for the export of orange juice to the United Kingdom. North Sea Port thus manages to strengthen its position as a foodport.
JuiSea Shipping is a collaboration of Refresco and Trilobes, both with headquarters in the Netherlands. The orange juice will be loaded on board the 89m vessel MV Marilie in Ghent at Louis Dreyfus Company and Citrosuco. Chartered by JuiSea Shipping, this vessel will sail between Ghent and the port of Portland, UK, 32 times a year, where it will be offloaded for Refresco’s Bridgwater plant. The vessel, sailing under the Finnish flag, will carry both concentrates of orange juice and fresh orange juice.
Global players
For the import and export of orange juice, North Sea Port is home to companies from all over the world. The Refresco Group is the world’s largest independent bottler of soft drinks and fruit juices. It operates with over 10,000 employees at more than 60 production sites in twelve countries. Trilobes specialises in tank construction, terminals and ship cargo systems for liquid bulk. It operates on all continents, for example in Brazil, Belgium and Japan.
Foodport
So from now on, orange juice will also be shipped to the United Kingdom from Ghent. This strengthens one of North Sea Port’s strategic pillars. Indeed, with this shipping service, the port is further developed as a foodport. Brazil and the United Kingdom are therefore of great importance here: in 2021 Brazil was the third most important trading partner for North Sea Port, the United Kingdom the fourth.
The 2022/23 orange crop from Florida is expected to total 28 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms each, the lowest since 1935/36 and 32 % down from that last season, according to the estimates from the USDA.
However, the damages caused by hurricane Ian have not been considered yet. Thus, the recent report has concerned the agents in the citrus sector. The USDA’s next estimates are supposed to be released on Nov. 9th, however, the damages caused by hurricane Ian are not expected to be considered in that report yet, which is supposed to happen in the December’s report.
Thus, local agents believe Florida’s production will be at least 40 % lower than that forecast by the USDA. In 2017/18, when Florida was last hit by a hurricane (Irma), production decreased by 34.6 %, and agents agree that Ian was more destructive than Irma. Besides the damages caused to crops, warehouses and equipment were destroyed too.
In this context, the United States’ necessity of importing orange juice – which was already growing up – is expected to increase even more, which may raise Brazilian juice exports to the country. However, it is important to consider that supply has been low in Brazil, where ending stocks are forecast to be lower than the strategic level (of 250 thousand tons). In August, CitrusBR estimated the ending stocks in the 2022/23 Brazilian season (by June 2023) to total 140 thousand tons, considering higher exports to the USA – however, this increase did not consider the effects of hurricane Ian on Florida crops and production.
So far, imports are following opposite trends in the US, depending on the type of juice: for Not From Concentrate juice (NFC), imports are rising, while for Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ), they are fading. According to Florida’s Citrus Department, from October/21 to August/22, the US imported 9 % less FCOJ than that in the same period of the previous season; however, the imports of NFC juice increased by 43.9 %. On the other hand, ending stocks of both types decreased: 39.5 % for FCOJ and 25.3 % for NFC juice.
Brazil is the US’s major juice supplier. Considering FCOJ, 50.1 % of the total imported by the US in 2021/22 came from Brazil, which was followed by Mexico (42.4 %). Considering NFC juice, 78.6 % of the total imported came from Brazil, against 20.5 % from Mexico.
BRAZILIAN MARKET – The demand for oranges was low in the Brazilian market in the first fortnight of October. According to Cepea collaborators, the unstable weather (with rains and periods of lower temperatures) and the holiday on October 12 constrained consumption. Still, prices remained firm, majorly underpinned by the supply in the in natura market, which is being controlled. For tahiti lime, values faded, due to lower demand. But still, they continued at high levels.
The first 2022-2023 orange crop forecast update for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt published by Fundecitrus – performed in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp1 –, is 314.09 million boxes of 40.8 kg each. That figure represents a decrease of 2.86 million boxes in relation to the initial estimate published in May this year and corresponds to -0.9 %. Approximately 22.97 million boxes of the total crop are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro …
Please download the full orange crop forecast update under www.fundecitrus.com.
1Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.
The Brazilian exports of orange juice increased in the first months of the 2022/23 season (July and August 2022). According to data from Secex, Brazil exported 175.9 thousand tons of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent in July/August, 8 % more than that in the same period last year. Revenue totaled USD 332.6 million, 32 % up in the same comparison.
The exports of non-concentrate juice (NCJ) have had the highest increase this season, totaling almost 292.7 thousand tons, with a revenue of USD 108.3 million, 14 % and 24 % up from that in July/August last year. On the other hand, the revenue from FCOJ exports rose higher than that for NCJ, by 36 %, totaling USD 224.3 million in the first two months of the current crop; the volume shipped increased by 6 %, totaling 122.7 thousand tons.
These increases were already expected for this season, considering that, in 2021/22, the Brazilian exports were limited by estimates for low stocks of orange juice.
In August, CitrusBR reported that, in June/22, only 143 thousand tons of FCOJ were stocked, a steep 55 % down from that in June/21. CitrusBR considered a possible increase in the exports to the USA because of the low orange production in Florida, due to the high incidence of greening.
DESTINATIONS – The European Union continues as the number one destination for the Brazilian orange juice, with a share of 62 % in the total exported – in the same period last season, its share was at 64 %. The second major destination for the national juice is the United States, with a share of 21 % in the total, against 25 % in 2021. The share of other destinations increased from 12 % last season to 17 % this season (considering the months of July and August).
The ending stocks of orange juice ended the 2021/22 season at low levels (on June 30th, 2022), according to data released this week by CitrusBR. And even if orange production increases in the 2022/23 season, the volume of juice stocked by the end of the crop is not expected to be high.
According to CitrusBR, the ending stocks of Frozen Concentrate Orange Juice (FCOJ) Equivalent totaled 143.1 thousand tons at the end of the 2021/22 season, almost 55 % lower than that in the previous crop and below the strategic level (250 thousand tons).
CitrusBR estimates juice stocks to total 140 thousand tons by the end of the 2022/23 crop, in June 2023. Despite the increase in the number of oranges allocated to the production of juice, industrial yield is expected to be lower than that last season – it is important to consider that, in the 2021/22 crop, rainfall was not that frequent, which favoured yield.
According to CitrusBR, the Brazilian exports of orange juice to the United States may increase, due to the low orange production in Florida, which is keeping low the American stocks of juice.
This scenario confirms the high industrial demand for oranges in the current season (2022/23). However, next season, the demand from juice processors is expected to continue high – to replenish stocks, at least partially. Thus, juice prices are on the rise abroad.
Cepea estimates that, for the volume stocked by the end of the 2023/24 season (in June 2024) to return to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, orange processing during that season needs to be around 300 million boxes of 40.8 kilograms, which accounts for an output of 340 million boxes in São Paulo State + the Triângulo Mineiro. This calculation considers stable juice sales, of a million tons, and the average yield of the five previous crops.
However, since the beginning of Fundecitrus surveys, in 2015/16, orange production has surpassed 340 million boxes in only two seasons: 2017/18 and 2019/20. Since then, the area with orange groves has shrunk. On the other hand, groves were renewed in that period, which tends to favour productivity and production.
