All Oranges 56.0 Million Boxes

The 2020-2021 Florida all orange forecast released today by the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board is 56.0 million boxes, down 2 percent from the October forecast. If realized, this will be 17 percent less than last season’s final production. The forecast consists of 22.0 million boxes of the non-Valencia oranges (early, midseason, and Navel varieties) and 34.0 million boxes of the Valencia oranges. A 9-year regression was used for comparison purposes. All references to “average”, “minimum”, and “maximum” refer to the previous 10 seasons, excluding the 2017-2018 season, which was affected by Hurricane Irma. Average fruit per tree includes both regular bloom and the first late bloom. …

Please download the full citrus crop production forecast: www.nass.usda.gov

Although the harvesting of the 2020/21 orange crop is advancing in Brazil, delivery to processors in São Paulo State (SP) was slow in November. According to Cepea collaborators, this scenario is linked to the lack of rains in the citrus-producing regions in SP in the last months, which limited both quality and supply, hampering activities at processing plants. On the other hand, rainfall in late November increased ratio and brix, favoring the juice produced in that period.

As regards the deals for the coming season (2021/22), the large-sized processors of orange juice in SP have been more interested in closing deals. However, bids have not been fixed and there may be an additional for participation in juice sales to the international market. Most citrus farmers are waiting for a better definition of the crop, since it seems the bad weather conditions this year may affect results.

SPOT – In the current season, large-sized processors are bidding prices up to 24.00 BRL per 40.8-kilo box, while bids from smaller-sized processors have been up to 28.00 BRL/box – late and pear oranges account for the most varieties processed. In November (until Nov. 26), prices averaged 24.46 BRL/box, 20.7 % up from the average in Nov/19, in nominal terms.

However, it is worth to mention that one of the large-sized processors was not closing deals in the spot market in November because of both the low supply of higher quality and larger-sized fruits and the competition with the domestic market, since prices have been attractive in this segment, and farmers are opting for selling fruits in natura.