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The result of orange juice shipments from Brazil in the 2024/25 season already reflects the lower supply of oranges and the limited stocks of the national OJ. According to data from Comex Stat, from July to December last year, Brazil exported 448.5 thousand tons of orange juice (converted into FCOJ 66 Brix), for a decrease of 23 % compared to that observed in the same period last year and the lowest amount of the Comex Stat series, which has started in 1997. The revenue obtained with sales, in turn, rose 37 % in the same comparison, hitting the record of USD 1.96 billion.

Calculations performed to obtain the total volume exported consider the sum of the three codes available in the Comex Stat system. Specifically about the code “20091200”, which includes non-concentrate types of juice, numbers were converted into FCOJ 66 Brix. Moreover, differently from the methodology used by CitrusBR (Brazilian Association of Citrus Exporters), all ports in Brazil were taken into account, not only Santos port.

Citrus BR indicates that the volume shipped in the first six months of 2025 (the last ones of the 2024/25 season) may register a lower performance compared to the year before due to the offseason in São Paulo, which limits the availability of juice. Moreover, the international demand is low because of high OJ prices in the international market.

As for destinations of total Brazilian exports, the European Union continues as the most important, participating with 55 % of the revenue obtained with sales in the second semester of 2024. The second major destination is the United States (35 %) – data from Comex Stat.

Between July and December 2024, NFC (not from concentrate) shipments to the US accounted for 62 % of the total, against 53 % in the same period of the year before. As for the European Union, FCOJ exports accounted for circa 70 %, and NFC shipments, 30 %.

Brazil

The fourth blossoming in the citrus belt in São Paulo slightly increased the supply in late January, despite the below-expected quality of the fruits. Low stocks of orange juice have been leading some companies to purchase as many fruits as they can in the spot market in an attempt to reduce the juice deficit. Fundecitrus indicates that the good development of this last blossoming of the 2024/25 season may bring a slightly higher supply for the citrus belt.

The 2024-2025 orange crop forecast for the São Paulo and West-Southwest Minas Gerais citrus belt by Fundecitrus in cooperation with Markestrat and full professors at FEA-RP/USP1 and FCAV/Unesp2, is 232.38 million boxes of 40.8 kg (90 lbs) each. This production is divided as follows (figures in parentheses indicate the drop in production as compared to the previous crop):

  • 37.12 million boxes of the Hamlin, Westin, and Rubi varieties (- 36.10 %);
  • 15.72 million boxes of the Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple and Alvorada varieties (- 15.07 %);
  • 70.97 million boxes of the Pera Rio variety (- 27.30 %);
  • 81.58 million boxes of the Valencia and Valencia Folha Murcha varieties (- 22.45 %);
  • 26.99 million boxes of the Natal variety (- 2.91 %).

Approximately 14.61 million boxes are expected to be produced in the Triângulo Mineiro (- 47.48 %).

Overall, the projected volume represents a significant drop of 24.36 % as compared to the previous crop that totaled 307.22 million boxes, a value close to the average for the last decade

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

1Marcos Fava Neves, Part-time Full Professor at FEA-RP/USP.
2José Carlos Barbosa, (voluntary) Full Professor at FCAV/Unesp.

Total forecast production of oranges1 remains at 307.22 million boxes

The third forecast for the 2023/24 orange crop in the São Paulo and West-Southwest of Minas Gerais citrus belt, published on February 09, 2024 by Fundecitrus, in cooperation with Markestrat, FEA-RP/USP and FCAV/Unesp2, maintains the projection of 307.22 million boxes of 40.8 kg each, unchanged in total volume from the previous forecast. This represents a reduction of 0.7 % when compared to the initial forecast for the season. Of the total estimated production, approximately 27.76 million boxes are expected to come from the Triângulo Mineiro region …

Please download the complete forecast under: www.fundecitrus.com.br/pdf

1Hamlin, Westin, Rubi, Valencia Americana, Seleta, Pineapple, Alvorada, Pera Rio, Valencia, Valencia Folha Murcha, and, Natal.
2Department of math and science, FCAV/Unesp Jaboticabal Campus.