Negotiations for the 2026/27 orange season between citrus growers and the industry advanced more effectively in late June. The period was characterised by progress in contract renegotiations and by the first more frequent purchases of fruit for processing. In addition, weather conditions limited the pace of harvesting in key producing regions of São Paulo state.

As for the industrial market, both the number of short-term contracts for the current season and spot market trading have been increasing. Between June 22 and 25, orange prices paid by the industry averaged BRL 29.53 per 40.8-kg box (considering short-term contracts and spot market transactions). These values are significantly lower than those observed at the beginning of 2025/26 negotiations, when spot market prices were close to BRL 45.00 per box, and also below the contracts established at the start of the 2024/25 season, at BRL 50.00 per box.

It is important to highlight that the prices reported by Cepea for early and mid-season oranges destined for processing in São Paulo state currently take into account short-term contracts for the 2026/27 season and spot market transactions.

As for supply, weather conditions limited harvesting activities at the end of the month. Recent rainfall in São Paulo state has slowed the pace of harvest and reduced field operations.

Concerning the in natura market, prices continued to decline amid the gradual increase in the supply of ripe fruit.

The first indications of contracts and renegotiations for the 2026/27 orange season in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro emerged shortly after Fundecitrus (Citrus Defense Fund) released its first estimate in May. However, no deals have been closed yet, indicating that the prices currently under discussion are initial attempts by the industry to establish a position for the new season. These prices, in turn, are lower than those observed last season.

Fundecitrus projects the 2026/27 orange crop at 255.2 million 40.8-kg boxes, down 13 % from the previous season. Under traditional market conditions, this reduction would support prices at high levels. However, the current environment continues to be strongly influenced by factors that have reduced producers’ bargaining power in relation to the industry.

One of these factors is the high global inventories of orange juice from the previous season (2025/26). Even after a smaller crop in the citrus belt, the international market continues to operate with weak demand, especially from the European Union. World consumption of OJ remains influenced by high prices for consumers in recent seasons. Thus, the industry’s urgent need to replenish inventories has decreased significantly compared to the previous season.

In the last season, contracts were closed at prices ranging from BRL 40 to BRL 55 per 40.8-kg box, depending on the negotiation period. According to market participants surveyed by Cepea offers currently range between BRL 35 and BRL 40 per box.

Players expect negotiations to progress gradually in the coming weeks, especially as mid-season fruits reach a better stage for harvesting and industrial activity picks up from the second half of June onward.

Pear orange prices remained virtually stable in April, averaging BRL 43.00 per 40.8-kilo box (on-tree, in natura market), down 1.7 % from March (BRL 43.76/box). Year on year, however, prices fell sharply by 56.1 %, from BRL 97.90/box in April 2025.

Although supply remains limited at the end of the 2025/26 season, price stability in April reflects competition from early-season fruit and subdued demand, with holidays during the month weighing on trading activity.

Industry

The average price of pear oranges delivered at the industry was at BRL 27.67 per 40.8-kilo box in April, down 11% compared to the BRL 31.00/box in March and 46.6% below the BRL 51.81/box verified in April 2025.

The volume of orange juice exported by Brazil in the partial of the 2023/24 season (from July/23 to May/24) remains below that registered in the same period of the previous crop. According to data from Comex Stat, Brazil exported 914.9 thousand tons of orange juice, for a decrease of 8.9 % compared to the same period last season.

The revenue, in turn, totaled USD 2.47 billion, moving up 22 % this season in relation to the previous. The main reason for the increase in revenue was the higher price paid per ton of juice, which rose due to the low availability of the commodity in Brazil, according to agents consulted by Cepea.

OJ shipments to the European Union amounted 489.79 thousand tons from July/23 to May/24, downing 8.2 % against the same period of 2022/23. The income, in turn, rose 27 %, at USD 1.35 billion. To the US, exports dropped 11 % in relation to that in 2022/23, at 293.64 thousand tons. The income verified between July/23 and May/24 was USD 737 million, 9 % up against the same period last season.

Domestic market

Prices of oranges allocated to processing activities have been moving up since March, when contracts involving the 2024/25 season have started to be closed. In early June, values of the fruit traded in the spot market in São Paulo state hit BRL 85.00 per 40.8-kilo box, harvested and delivered, a new record of Cepea series, which started in 1994, in real terms (averages were deflated by the IGP-DI).

Price rises are related to both the higher demand and the limited supply. As for the demand, the industry needs to purchase the raw material, because orange juice stocks are very low. Concerning the supply, the fruit output may be small again in São Paulo and in Triângulo Mineiro.

Flowers of the 2023/24 crop, verified in the second semester of 2022, were considered excellent in the citrus belt of São Paulo and Triângulo Mineiro, which resulted in expectations of a good harvest. However, the weather after flowers blossomed was not ideal in many areas. Therefore, the next season may register lower supply compared to the demand.

Areas that have irrigation system (44 % of the total is located in the north of São Paulo state) registered anticipated flowers (in mid-July), and the weather was good after the blossoming. In this case, the development is considered satisfactory.

In other areas, however, scenarios were very distinct, since the rainfall was irregular and at different volumes among the regions. In the southwest of SP, flowers blossomed in late September, while it occurred in mid-October in other areas. In this case, as flowers opened in the rainy season (September/October), there had been more cases of blossom-end rot (“estrelinha”), increasing flower abortion.

Another aspect that reinforced concerns of the citrus sector in Brazil is the below-average amount of rainfall in many regions during the flower-settlement (especially in November), and temperatures were high in some moments. Thus, fruitlets dropped. From mid-December until now, rains have been more frequent, which brings relief, but are not capable to revert the scenario of losses.

In general, players expected that the 2023/24 season would be higher than the current; however, after many difficulties, opinions have started to change. The USDA released a report in December indicating that the Brazilian production may total 305 million 40.8-kilo boxes, 1.9% less compared to the current crop. It is important to mention that a more accurate forecast for 2023/24 will be possible only in mid-February.

Therefore, the scenario of low inventories at the end of 2022/23 may not be reverted in the next season. CitrusBR says that the ending stocks by June/23 may total only 140 thousand tons, lower than the strategic level, of 250 thousand tons.

Cepea calculations indicate that, in order for the volume in stocks by the end of 2023/24 (in June/24) returns to the strategic level of 250 thousand tons, the orange processing in 2023/24 may be at roughly 300 million 40.8-kilo boxes, which is equivalent to a production in São Paulo state and in Triângulo Mineiro at 340 million boxes, higher than what the USDA forecast.

TAHITI LIME – The first two months of 2023 may register high supply in São Paulo state, due to the peak period, which can press down quotations. On the other hand, as the industry may intensify processing activities and exports tend to increase in this period, the volume available is expected to reduce in the domestic market.